From the report,faster growth in the world, US – but US level below pre-Trump trend:
IMF World Economic Outlook October Forecast Out
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Weekly Indicators of Economic Growth
WEI and WECI, for data releases through 10/11/2025:
Some Business Cycle Observables
Tomorrow, we’ll get another piece of business cycle information, in the form of industrial production, manufacturing production, and capacity utilization.
Irony of Ironies: Trump’s War on the Big Mac
Data suggests that Big Mac prices are far outpacing the CPI, and AIER’s Everyday Price Index. Oh, the humanity!
Policy Uncertainty during the Shutdown: Elevated
Daily data from Baker, Bloom and Davis:
How Much Will We Lose Lending to Argentina?
The $20 billion swap announced by Bessent (not on US Treasury website as far as I can tell) is funded out of the Exchange Stabilization Fund. As far as I can tell, there’s no conditionality. This transaction is qualitatively different from Fed swap lines with for instand ECB and BoE wherein the Fed had access to their currencies.
FX and Gold Reserves in Q2
COFER data is out for Q2. With estimated gold held by the central banks, we have this picture of reserve composition.
WSJ Survey: Below Trend Growth
Out today:
Why a Missed Release Is Sometimes Problematic
When the economy is growing in a steady manner, a missed release is not a problem. But when the economy is on a potential tipping point, the preliminary release and revisions take on a heighted importance. Example: September 2008 net job gains:
Flying Blind, Graphically Illustrated
Here’re key indicators followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee, with indications of measures already missed (purple squares) and will be missed in a 34 day shutdown (and likely delayed even if a shorter shutdown occurs) (purple dashed squares).