February 03, 2012
Messages from the January Employment Release: Accelerating Improvement for Now
Employment growth accelerates along several dimensions: nonfarm payroll, an alternative measure of nonfarm payroll, private employment, hours, and civilian employment (report here). However, JEC vice chairman Brady (JEC-Republicans) states in a press release: "Job Numbers Mask Underlying Job Weakness."
Continue reading "Messages from the January Employment Release: Accelerating Improvement for Now"
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 02:35 PM permalink | Comments (0) | digg this | reddit
February 02, 2012
Net Exports, Exports, Real Exchange Rates and Manufacturing
Several observers have noted that exports have increased substantially since the President made his commitment to doubling exports. [1] The most recent GDP release confirms improvement in the net exports to GDP ratio (ex. oil imports) and real exports, and a BEA release from a month and a half ago confirms a rebound in manufacturing value added.
Continue reading "Net Exports, Exports, Real Exchange Rates and Manufacturing"
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 05:00 AM permalink | Comments (8) | digg this | reddit
February 01, 2012
Links for 2012-02-01
Quick links to a few items I found interesting.
Continue reading "Links for 2012-02-01"
Posted by James Hamilton at 01:09 PM permalink | Comments (11) | digg this | reddit
January 31, 2012
CBO's Budget and Economic Outlook: Tax Expenditures
The CBO has just released the Budget and Economic Outlook. The document is full of extremely useful information, and provides a useful anodyne for some of the reality-free analyses floating around (examples here). For now, I'll just highlight two interesting graphs regarding tax expenditures:
Continue reading "CBO's Budget and Economic Outlook: Tax Expenditures"
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 08:29 AM permalink | Comments (9) | digg this | reddit
January 29, 2012
Inflation expectations and the Fed
The Fed has begun implementing its new communication strategy. Here's what the message seems to be.
Continue reading "Inflation expectations and the Fed"
Posted by James Hamilton at 07:32 AM permalink | Comments (30) | digg this | reddit
January 28, 2012
Wisconsin Governor Walker: "We are heading in the right direction."
That statement is from Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker's State of the State address. Here are some additional remarks:
Continue reading "Wisconsin Governor Walker: "We are heading in the right direction.""
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 03:10 PM permalink | Comments (17) | digg this | reddit
January 27, 2012
U.S. GDP: not a recession, but still not very encouraging
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today that U.S. real GDP grew at an annual rate of 2.8% during the fourth quarter of 2011. That's better than any of the previous 5 quarters, which tells you more about how disappointing the previous year and a half has been than it does about how great the fourth quarter was. The average historical growth rate for the U.S. economy over the last 60 years has been about 3.2%.
Continue reading "U.S. GDP: not a recession, but still not very encouraging"
Posted by James Hamilton at 10:22 AM permalink | Comments (34) | digg this | reddit
January 25, 2012
UK: Into Recession
So much for expansionary fiscal contraction in the UK. Not that that’s a surprise.
Continue reading "UK: Into Recession"
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 06:51 PM permalink | Comments (15) | digg this | reddit
January 23, 2012
In Search Of: Fiscal Responsibility
Given all the talk about taxes, I wondered how the Republican candidates plans stack up on the fiscal responsibility dimension, which Jeffry Frieden and I define thus:
[T]rue fiscal responsibility involves a willingness to raise sufficient tax revenue, over the longer term, to pay for the programs the government implements. Fiscal responsibility should not be equated with a small government, but rather with a commitment to pay for the government services provided. ...
Continue reading "In Search Of: Fiscal Responsibility"
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 06:45 PM permalink | Comments (40) | digg this | reddit
January 22, 2012
Wealth creation
Here's my suggestion for how to become rich: buy low and sell high.
Continue reading "Wealth creation"
Posted by James Hamilton at 06:36 AM permalink | Comments (60) | digg this | reddit
January 20, 2012
Dispatches (XIX): Wisconsin Employment Hemorrhaging Continues
Wisconsin's Department of Workforce Development yesterday released preliminary employment figures for December, and revised figures for November. Both nonfarm payroll employment and private nonfarm payroll employment continue to decline (Figures 1 and 2). Total nonfarm payroll employment is now below levels recorded in January 2011, when Governor Walker took office. The divergence between the national employment trend and Wisconsin's over the past six months is highlighted in Figure 3.
Continue reading "Dispatches (XIX): Wisconsin Employment Hemorrhaging Continues"
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 11:35 AM permalink | Comments (35) | digg this | reddit
January 19, 2012
Miscellanea: America's Lost Decades, Wisconsin’s Lost Year, Hi Frequency Measures, Europe, and Conditional Inflation Targeting
Lost Decades
Here’s my 25 minute presentation of Lost Decades at the Rotary Club of Madison, on January 4th (as recorded by Wisconsin Eye) Powerpoint. One point I made was that the global financial crisis and ensuing recession have exacted a tremendous cost on the US economy. In the absence of more aggressive action, another 2.4 trillion Ch.2005$ loss will be incurred through 2013Q4. The blithe indifference with which opponents of extended payroll tax reductions, extended unemployment benefits, food stamp expenditures and infrastructure investment contemplate the damage continues to astound me.
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 08:10 AM permalink | Comments (12) | digg this | reddit
January 18, 2012
Links for 2012-01-18
FT Alphaville on crude oil and the eurozone crisis.
Jeff Miller does not buy into recent forecasts of a U.S. recession. On a related note, Bonddad deconstructs the ECRI Weekly Leading Index.
VoxEu notes the systematic international tendency for official deficit figures to understate the magnitude of the change in public debt.
Liberty Street Economics on forecasting with internet search data.
Posted by James Hamilton at 09:30 AM permalink | Comments (5) | digg this | reddit
January 16, 2012
Think Tanks in the Economics Profession
Indicators via representation at the Allied Social Sciences Association meetings.
Continue reading "Think Tanks in the Economics Profession"
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 03:10 PM permalink | Comments (35) | digg this | reddit
January 15, 2012
Iranian oil embargo
As efforts continue to impose sanctions on Iran ([1], [2]), I thought it would be helpful to discuss the possible implications of these developments for oil-consuming countries.
Continue reading "Iranian oil embargo"
Posted by James Hamilton at 07:53 AM permalink | Comments (26) | digg this | reddit
January 12, 2012
China: Inflation and Exchange Rate Watch
Chinese inflation is decelerating [0]. This suggests that whatever further real CNY appreciation occurs is likely arise from nominal appreciation, over the near term.
Continue reading "China: Inflation and Exchange Rate Watch"
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 01:00 PM permalink | Comments (7) | digg this | reddit
January 11, 2012
Reducing Petroleum Consumption from Transportation
MIT Professor Christopher Knittel has a new paper on the potential for the United States to reduce petroleum consumption.
Continue reading "Reducing Petroleum Consumption from Transportation"
Posted by James Hamilton at 07:38 AM permalink | Comments (58) | digg this | reddit
January 10, 2012
Dispatches XVIII: Wisconsin Employment and Activity Indicators
As Governor Walker begins a tour of the state to tout a new jobs plan [0], it might be useful to review economic conditions in Wisconsin. Briefly put, Wisconsin employment (total, private) continues to decline, and Wisconsin's coincident indicator continues to diverge from the US indicator (as well as most other of the region's indicators). Hence, points made in previous posts [1] [2] still seem applicable.
Continue reading "Dispatches XVIII: Wisconsin Employment and Activity Indicators"
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 05:10 PM permalink | Comments (10) | digg this | reddit
January 09, 2012
"Financial Integration and Global Rebalancing"
I organized the International Economics and Finance Society panel on "Financial Integration and Global Rebalancing" at the Allied Social Sciences Association meetings in Chicago. In the end, the papers fit together much better than I had anticipated; they all dealt with with the factors driving the puzzling pattern of current account balances -- and how policy can possibly influence those patterns.
Continue reading ""Financial Integration and Global Rebalancing""
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 04:00 PM permalink | Comments (2) | digg this | reddit
January 08, 2012
Current economic conditions
The latest U.S. economic indicators have taken a favorable turn.
Continue reading "Current economic conditions"
Posted by James Hamilton at 09:36 AM permalink | Comments (11) | digg this | reddit
January 05, 2012
Lost Decades at ASSA/Chicago
For those of you attending the Allied Social Sciences Association (and AEA) meetings in Chicago, January 6-8, I'll be at the W.W. Norton booth in the exhibition hall, Friday afternoon, particularly 5PM onward, ready to talk about Lost Decades: The Making of America's Debt Crisis and the Long Recovery.
Continue reading "Lost Decades at ASSA/Chicago"
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 07:25 AM permalink | Comments (7) | digg this | reddit
(since 
