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July 09, 2005

Here and there around the web

Catching my eye here and there around the web: Supreme Court speculation, a natural experiment in market microstructure, a troubling Kansas court decision, pirates, and an expression of support for those in London.

Will POTUS nominate AGOTUS for SCOTUS? Tradesports (click on "Supreme Court... Trade this now" in lower right) used to think so, but Gonzales shares have suddenly dropped sharply.

Whoops, did I say billion? Mahalanobis had a neat story about what happens when a stock trader makes a really, really big mistake. Might be used as an interesting natural experiment for researchers studying financial market microstructure.

Judge, jury, executioner, and tax collector. Dead Parrot Society reports that the Kansas Supreme Court has ordered the state's schools shut down if the legislature does not increase funding. It's amazing to me how Americans have allowed the courts to claim for themselves full legislative and executive power, with none of the democratic checks on those powers that were envisioned in our original constitutional structure.

Pirates. No, the Dead Parrot Society isn't the place to look for all the news about modern day pirates. For that your clear authority appears to be Eaglespeak.

Finally, to my readers and friends in Great Britain, I wish to convey my deep sympathy and sorrow for this week's bloodshed. It appears from this report that Londoners are displaying the remarkable civic courage for which the British are justly famous.

Posted by James Hamilton at July 9, 2005 06:37 PM

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As far as tradesports, another way to get to the Supreme Court bets is to choose Legal from the category list at the left, and then if necessary click on Supreme Court from the category list on the new page (but at present, the only Legal bets are for the SC).

The trading seems pretty thin and volatile. Right now Gonzales is basically 25 bid, 35 asked (where these can be interpreted as percentage chances). In second is Garza, who is the anti-abortion version of Gonzales, at 20/28. This indicates about a 50-50 chance that Bush will nominate a Hispanic to fill the position.

The rest of the field is pretty much in the single digits, with two female candidates, Brown and Owen, in 3rd and 4th at present.

Posted by: Hal at July 10, 2005 11:47 AM

Whoa, you're right Hal! Gonzales regained 10 points since my post last night!

Posted by: JDH at July 10, 2005 11:58 AM

Gonzales is up high as of right now (25/32). Not sure why it's so volatile, but that contract has been a bit erratic (a bit...). For a while, Garza was ahead of him, but after Bush reprimanding conservatives for criticizing Gonzales, he's been steadily ahead.

BTW, this has quickly become my favorite econ blog. I'm happily surprised by how well your posts fit the medium. They're substantive, frequent, brief, to the point, yet very intelligent. Keep up the great blogging!

Posted by: scott cunningham at July 10, 2005 01:23 PM

"the Kansas Supreme Court has ordered the state's schools shut down if the legislature does not increase funding."

In many states (I don't know about Kansas) judges are elected. This doesn't make it right, but they maybe subject to some democratic accounability.

Further, without the cooperation of the executive, it is hard to see how such an order would be enforced.

Posted by: Robert Schwartz at July 11, 2005 09:32 AM