March 30, 2006
The Full Employment Budget Surplus
The CBO's latest estimates
March 29, 2006
Learning the new Fedspeak
Curious reaction from both markets and pundits to yesterday's statement from the FOMC accompanying the decision to boost the fed funds rate another 25 basis points.
March 28, 2006
What would be the important effects?
March 26, 2006
Facing the immigration question
Andrew Samwick had an extremely thoughtful post this weekend.
March 23, 2006
The dollar and purchasing power parity
In my post on the dollar's trajectory, one person asked about purchasing power parity (PPP). Here is a brief discussion of the relevance of this concept to exchange rate forecasts.
March 21, 2006
Postscript to "Critique of Pure Dark Matter"
Mixed news for 4th quarter net income in the current account release
March 20, 2006
The politics of the deficit
Congress squawks about the horrible debt and then adds even more red ink.
March 19, 2006
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that inflation as measured by the seasonally adjusted consumer price index for all urban consumers rose only 0.1% in February (a 1.2% annual rate), down from 0.7% (an 8.4% annual rate) in January. Those who view the monthly CPI as the most important inflation indicator breathed a sigh of relief, perceiving the economy to have lurched from hyperinflation back to price stability within the space of 30 days.
March 15, 2006
Where are the financial crises?
Some other possible consequences of monetary tightening.
March 14, 2006
ExxonMobil and peak oil
ExxonMobil is out to convince people that peak oil is in the far distant future.
March 13, 2006
Some views on the dollar's trajectory
Judgment, theory and correlations in exchange rate modeling.
March 11, 2006
The latest employment figures: implications for policy
Stronger employment growth in February than I and many others had been expecting.
March 10, 2006
The downward march of the trade balanceSome context for the the latest trade deficit numbers
March 08, 2006
Rising long-term yields
The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries is up almost 40 basis points so far this year, which means it's been gaining on the fed funds rate and reducing the prospect of full inversion of the yield curve. Why have rates been going up?
Still no correction from Homeland Security
The mainstream media finally seems to be catching on to the fact that the Dubai Ports World acquisition of the British port services company P&O would involve not six but over 20 U.S. ports. It's curious that no one has yet followed up on the fact that the reason the original number was reported as six is because that's the information that was given out by the Department of Homeland Security.
March 07, 2006
Do (budget) deficits matter?Thinking about what happens to interest rates when foreign capital inflows slow
March 06, 2006
The economics of email
Last week I received the following email message. I bet some of you did, too.
March 05, 2006
Enhanced oil recovery
The Department of Energy issued a series of optimistic reports on Friday about the potential for carbon-dioxide-based enhanced oil recovery methods (CO2-EOR) to lead to huge increases in U.S. crude oil production.
March 04, 2006
Another look at near-term oil supplies
Now that the Energy Information Administration has published oil production figures for the full year 2005, I was curious to take a look at how the predictions of Cambridge Energy Research Associates are faring thus far.
March 03, 2006
Autos limp forward
Could be better, could be worse.
March 02, 2006
Where Do All Those Numbers Come From
Are we adequately funding knowledge about the economy?