April 30, 2006
More political pandering
Those whose political philosophy is to try to opt for the lesser of two evils may have a hard time choosing their dog in the fight between Senate Democrats and Republicans over gasoline taxes.
April 29, 2006
New Research on the Sources of Current Account Deficits
Some excerpts from a recent conference on Current Account Sustainability in Major Advanced Economies
April 28, 2006
Strong first-quarter GDP growth
The expected strong 2006:Q1 GDP growth included encouraging numbers for investment and exports, and warranted a slight drop in the recession probability index.
April 27, 2006
President Bush and gasoline prices
Unlike some other pundits, I see a number of good ideas in the President's new proposals and actions announced on Tuesday.
April 26, 2006
Contango, speculation, and the price of oil
Lynne Kiesling (Knowledge Problem), John Whitehead (Environmental Economics) , Stephen Ayer (Disinterested Party), and whoever that is blogging over at Oil Wars were among those commenting on this article ($$ required) at the Wall Street Journal.
April 25, 2006
The Debate over the Impact of the Budget Deficit on the Current Account Deficit
What does the empirical literature say?
April 24, 2006
Who's afraid of $3 gasoline?
Does the expected strong 2006:Q1 GDP report mean that the economy will shrug off the recent resurgence of gas prices?
April 20, 2006
Is the Renminbi (Rmb) undervalued in price terms? Does it matter if it is?
With the visit of President Hu to the United States, Chinese currency misalignment is at the top of the agenda. What is "misalignment"?
April 18, 2006
Oil goes higher and higher
The NYMEX May 2006 crude futures contract closed today above $71.
April 17, 2006
Even more on the employment report
A contrarian perspective on employment growth
April 16, 2006
Rising gas prices: whom should we blame this time?
U.S. gasoline prices are again moving quickly up. Some of the politicians who are looking for a scapegoat might do well to look in a mirror.
April 15, 2006
Specter's antitrust bill
April 14, 2006
Real vs. nominal, seasonally adjusted vs. nsa
A primer on real, nominal, physical units, and seasonal adjustment
April 13, 2006
An open letter to the Honorable Judge Carl J. West
My two cents worth on the multimillion dollar class-action lawsuit that was filed on my behalf against Ralphs Grocery Company.
April 12, 2006
February Trade Figures
A (semi-) Positive Surprise on the trade balance
April 10, 2006
War fears and the price of oil
More talk this week of war with Iran, and the price of oil jumps right up. Maybe the two are related, and maybe not.
External scientific advice at the Department of EnergyEnergy department abolishes science advisory board
April 08, 2006
Who's grumpy about this week's good economic news?
People who bought long-term Treasuries at 4.3%, that's who.
April 06, 2006
The yield curve and predicting recessions
Jonathan Wright, a brilliant research economist at the Federal Reserve Board, recently completed a very interesting paper titled The Yield Curve and Predicting Recessions. Wright's research seems to have been influential in Fed Chair Ben Bernanke's recent assessment that the current very flat yield curve does not signify a coming significant economic slowdown.
April 05, 2006
Message or Messenger
Why is Secretary Snow such a perennial target?
April 04, 2006
What's moving long-term yields?
Long-term interest rates continue to creep up.
Trends in Dollar Reserves