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April 30, 2006
More political pandering
Those whose political philosophy is to try to opt for the lesser of two evils may have a hard time choosing their dog in the fight between Senate Democrats and Republicans over gasoline taxes.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 07:57 PM permalink | Comments (44)
April 29, 2006
New Research on the Sources of Current Account Deficits
Some excerpts from a recent conference on Current Account Sustainability in Major Advanced Economies
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Posted by Menzie Chinn at 04:30 PM permalink | Comments (1)
April 28, 2006
Strong first-quarter GDP growth
The expected strong 2006:Q1 GDP growth included encouraging numbers for investment and exports, and warranted a slight drop in the recession probability index.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 10:24 AM permalink | Comments (8)
April 27, 2006
President Bush and gasoline prices
Unlike some other pundits, I see a number of good ideas in the President's new proposals and actions announced on Tuesday.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 05:59 AM permalink | Comments (21)
April 26, 2006
Contango, speculation, and the price of oil
Lynne Kiesling (Knowledge Problem), John Whitehead (Environmental Economics) , Stephen Ayer (Disinterested Party), and whoever that is blogging over at Oil Wars were among those commenting on this article ($$ required) at the Wall Street Journal.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 05:55 AM permalink | Comments (33)
April 25, 2006
The Debate over the Impact of the Budget Deficit on the Current Account Deficit
What does the empirical literature say?
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Posted by Menzie Chinn at 09:28 AM permalink | Comments (7)
April 24, 2006
Who's afraid of $3 gasoline?
Does the expected strong 2006:Q1 GDP report mean that the economy will shrug off the recent resurgence of gas prices?
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Posted by James Hamilton at 12:33 PM permalink | Comments (19)
April 20, 2006
Is the Renminbi (Rmb) undervalued in price terms? Does it matter if it is?
With the visit of President Hu to the United States, Chinese currency misalignment is at the top of the agenda. What is "misalignment"?
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Posted by Menzie Chinn at 09:37 AM permalink | Comments (16)
April 18, 2006
Oil goes higher and higher
The NYMEX May 2006 crude futures contract closed today above $71.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 03:12 PM permalink | Comments (20)
April 17, 2006
Even more on the employment report
A contrarian perspective on employment growth
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Posted by Menzie Chinn at 11:58 PM permalink | Comments (14)
April 16, 2006
Rising gas prices: whom should we blame this time?
U.S. gasoline prices are again moving quickly up. Some of the politicians who are looking for a scapegoat might do well to look in a mirror.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 01:54 PM permalink | Comments (33)
April 15, 2006
Specter's antitrust bill
I share the concerns expressed at Mises Economics Blog and the Voluntary Trade Council about antitrust legislation introduced this week targeting both domestic and foreign oil producers.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 07:33 AM permalink | Comments (15)
April 14, 2006
Real vs. nominal, seasonally adjusted vs. nsa
A primer on real, nominal, physical units, and seasonal adjustment
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Posted by Menzie Chinn at 09:05 AM permalink | Comments (8)
April 13, 2006
An open letter to the Honorable Judge Carl J. West
My two cents worth on the multimillion dollar class-action lawsuit that was filed on my behalf against Ralphs Grocery Company.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 08:14 AM permalink | Comments (40)
April 12, 2006
February Trade Figures
A (semi-) Positive Surprise on the trade balance
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Posted by Menzie Chinn at 03:06 PM permalink | Comments (21)
April 10, 2006
War fears and the price of oil
More talk this week of war with Iran, and the price of oil jumps right up. Maybe the two are related, and maybe not.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 09:10 PM permalink | Comments (19)
External scientific advice at the Department of Energy
Energy department abolishes science advisory boardContinue reading "External scientific advice at the Department of Energy"
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 08:47 AM permalink | Comments (3)
April 08, 2006
Who's grumpy about this week's good economic news?
People who bought long-term Treasuries at 4.3%, that's who.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 11:14 AM permalink | Comments (12)
April 06, 2006
The yield curve and predicting recessions
Jonathan Wright, a brilliant research economist at the Federal Reserve Board, recently completed a very interesting paper titled The Yield Curve and Predicting Recessions. Wright's research seems to have been influential in Fed Chair Ben Bernanke's recent assessment that the current very flat yield curve does not signify a coming significant economic slowdown.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 08:03 PM permalink | Comments (21)
April 05, 2006
Message or Messenger
Why is Secretary Snow such a perennial target?
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Posted by Menzie Chinn at 10:07 PM permalink | Comments (5)
April 04, 2006
What's moving long-term yields?
Long-term interest rates continue to creep up.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 09:30 PM permalink | Comments (20)
Trends in Dollar Reserves
Latest data
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Posted by Menzie Chinn at 07:47 AM permalink | Comments (3)