May 31, 2006
Does a new economic team mean a new economic policy?
Henry Paulson has been nominated to the position of Secretary of Treasury. Will it matter?
May 30, 2006
M3 or not M3?
In response to a post earlier this week on M2 and inflation, one of our readers asks why I looked at M2 rather than M3. Here's the answer.
The Euro, the Dollar and Globalization
Thinking about some big global macro issues
May 28, 2006
M2 and inflation
High commodity prices and indications of rising inflation have renewed interest in the hypothesis that the U.S. has been increasing the money supply in recent years at an excessive rate.
May 24, 2006
Gambling on Trade
In 2001, the Bush Administration set in motion the machinery to impose tariffs on steel imports. The purported reason was to secure fast track (trade negotiating) authority. How does that gamble look five years later?
Wedges and widgets
The phenomenal boom of Canada's oil sands industry continues, despite the complete absence of any government crash program to cope with peak oil.
May 23, 2006
Exchange rate pass through and dollar decline
Is there a direct relationship running from a change in the dollar's value and import and export prices and thence to consumer prices?
May 21, 2006
Natural gas and crude oil prices
Can natural gas fall this far without oil prices moving more?
May 18, 2006
Energy futures as predictors
Many publications use energy futures as proxy measures for market expectations of future energy prices. Does this procedure make sense?
May 17, 2006
We all understand that the Fed's next move depends on incoming data. But what if the incoming data raise concerns of both higher inflation and slower output growth?
May 16, 2006
Is dollar depreciation a separate policy channel for trade balance adjustment?
The dollar is on the decline...more or less. Will this cause the long awaited adjustment?
Commodity price inflation
Commodity markets have been a little too exciting recently for my quiet tastes.
May 14, 2006
Early indications of trouble
One leading indicator heads south this week.
May 12, 2006
March 2006 trade balance figures
Oil imports in the spotlight
May 11, 2006
The portfolio balance effect and reserve diversification
Implications from the debate over the Renminbi. And the Won. And the...
May 10, 2006
Congressionally mandated shortages
Last week the U.S. House of Representatives voted by an overwhelming margin to guarantee gasoline shortages the next time we face a significant disruption in petroleum supplies.
May 08, 2006
Interpreting and Re-interpreting Meese-Rogoff
What the Meese-Rogoff papers do and don't say, and the implications for empirical exchange rate modeling
May 07, 2006
Have oil prices peaked?
Oil prices can go down as well as up.
May 05, 2006
Another Reason for Reducing Oil Dependence
The macroeconomic implications of high oil imports
May 04, 2006
April auto sales
Motor vehicles is one of the key sectors to watch for an indication that the recent gas price spike might derail the current economic expansion.
May 02, 2006
Reading Bernanke's lips
I still say that many pundits are using the wrong paradigm for interpreting the public pronouncements of the new Federal Reserve Chair.
May 01, 2006
New research on the current account adjustment process
Insights on how global current account imbalances might be resolved