« May 2006 | Main | July 2006 »
June 30, 2006
All eyes on housing
Mark Thoma notes that the most recent FOMC statement has changed from declaring growth is "likely to moderate" to "Recent indicators suggest that economic growth is moderating". The first stages of the long-anticipated cooling of the housing market certainly appear to be here now.
Continue reading "All eyes on housing"
Posted by James Hamilton at 04:56 PM permalink | Comments (9)
June 29, 2006
A Budgetary Counterfactual
What if we had not cut taxes for the richest and increased discretionary spending faster than the rate of inflation?
Continue reading "A Budgetary Counterfactual"
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 05:40 PM permalink | Comments (8)
June 28, 2006
Energy independence
A reader writes, "Can you provide for readers of Econbrowser a range of estimates for the price of crude oil at which the US would be self-sufficient in the present and near future?"
Continue reading "Energy independence"
Posted by James Hamilton at 11:07 AM permalink | Comments (43)
June 27, 2006
More on the Costs of Energy Dependence
Quantification is the first step in assessing the proper course of action
Continue reading "More on the Costs of Energy Dependence"
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 07:21 AM permalink | Comments (15)
June 24, 2006
EPA report on boutique fuels
There is a curious difference between the EPA report on boutique fuels that was actually released by the EPA and the account in the mainstream press.
Continue reading "EPA report on boutique fuels"
Posted by James Hamilton at 11:05 AM permalink | Comments (20)
June 22, 2006
Measuring the import component of U.S. exports
In order to export in a competitive market, we need to import
Continue reading "Measuring the import component of U.S. exports"
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 08:06 AM permalink | Comments (5)
June 21, 2006
Oil market predictions
Cambridge Energy Research Associates seems to be substantially less optimistic than they were a year ago.
Continue reading "Oil market predictions"
Posted by James Hamilton at 06:26 AM permalink | Comments (48)
June 20, 2006
Some Iraq cost metrics on a one year anniversary
Evaluating the costs one year after Cheney's prediction of "the last throes ...of the insurgency"
Continue reading "Some Iraq cost metrics on a one year anniversary"
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 07:45 AM permalink | Comments (58)
June 18, 2006
Inflation and the Fed
Certainly the recent inflation data have been-- Dave Altig says insert something negative here, so I'll just say "unwelcome". But when Fed Chair Ben Bernanke declared that's exactly the way he sees it, too, markets stood up and took notice. Let's review some of the dramatic market adjustments that have occurred since Bernanke's June 5 remarks.
Continue reading "Inflation and the Fed"
Posted by James Hamilton at 09:11 PM permalink | Comments (17)
June 17, 2006
New Direction for America
The Democrats call it a New Direction for America. But to me, it looks like the same old same old.
Continue reading "New Direction for America"
Posted by James Hamilton at 02:04 PM permalink | Comments (12)
June 16, 2006
The 2006q1 Current Account figures
Upside surprises. Will they continue?
Continue reading "The 2006q1 Current Account figures"
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 11:55 AM permalink | Comments (1)
June 15, 2006
What happens to the dollar when interest rates stop rising?
Further predictions of secular dollar weakness, from a portfolio balance perspective
Continue reading "What happens to the dollar when interest rates stop rising?"
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 05:04 PM permalink | Comments (5)
June 14, 2006
Oil supply and demand
Five weeks ago, I wondered whether oil prices might have peaked at $75 a barrel. Time to take a look at some of the data that have come in since then.
Continue reading "Oil supply and demand"
Posted by James Hamilton at 10:18 AM permalink | Comments (12)
June 13, 2006
The economic impact of a disruption to container trade
Congress acts -- to cut funds for port security
Continue reading "The economic impact of a disruption to container trade"
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 06:25 AM permalink | Comments (7)
June 10, 2006
Hawk or dove?
The pundits continue to be frustrated in their efforts to pigeonhole the Federal Reserve Chair.
Continue reading "Hawk or dove?"
Posted by James Hamilton at 06:58 PM permalink | Comments (18)
June 09, 2006
April 2006 Trade Balance Figures
Where the ex. oil trade balance is going, and what trade prices are doing.
Continue reading "April 2006 Trade Balance Figures"
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 11:55 AM permalink | Comments (7)
June 08, 2006
Here and there around the web
A few items catching my eye around the web this week, including probability of recession, progress on refining capacity, and Greg Mankiw and his dog.
Continue reading "Here and there around the web"
Posted by James Hamilton at 11:20 AM permalink | Comments (4)
June 07, 2006
The dollar and interest rate expectations
What can one read from asset responses to "news"
Continue reading "The dollar and interest rate expectations"
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 01:05 PM permalink | Comments (11)
June 06, 2006
Saudi oil production
There's something fishy about the story in Monday's Wall Street Journal.
Continue reading "Saudi oil production"
Posted by James Hamilton at 02:24 PM permalink | Comments (29)
Bernanke tells it like it is
Once again I recommend the most recent statement of our Federal Reserve Chair as some of the finest economic analysis you will find anywhere.
Continue reading "Bernanke tells it like it is"
Posted by James Hamilton at 05:44 AM permalink | Comments (25)
June 05, 2006
Learning (or non-learning) from the Classical Age
Or, what if George W. Bush had lived in 480 BCE; would we all be speaking Persian?
Continue reading "Learning (or non-learning) from the Classical Age"
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 02:12 PM permalink | Comments (12)
June 03, 2006
Indications of slower growth
This week's data paint a picture of slowing growth.
Continue reading "Indications of slower growth"
Posted by James Hamilton at 09:26 AM permalink | Comments (15)