August 31, 2006
Net interest and factor payments in 2006q2
The message from yesterday's NIPA release.
August 30, 2006
So where's the surge in inflation expectations, now that the Fed has stopped tightening?
August 29, 2006
Heckuva job on Fiscal Policy!
Or, why I have to explain to my Money and Banking students that discretionary counter-cyclical fiscal policy is "off the table".
August 26, 2006
More thoughts on the housing slowdown
How concerned should we be?
August 25, 2006
How Mobile Is Capital Internationally?
The issue of international capital mobility comes up time and time again. There is the worry of capital and associated production capacity moving abroad to China for lower wage rates, and if not to China, to the rest of the world to escape environmental regulations or to avoid corporate taxation. So how mobile is capital?
August 24, 2006
New home sales continue to fall
No question about it, the housing downturn is here now, and it's big.
August 23, 2006
Opportunity cost illustrated
On a one year anniversary, a look back to (one of the reasons) why the National Guard's post-Katrina rescue and recovery efforts were hampered.
August 22, 2006
Dating business cycle turning points
Thanks much to Menzie for holding down the fort while I was away last week. Now that I'm back, I'd like to weigh in on the issue of when did the recession of 2001 begin, a topic on which Menzie, Greg Mankiw, Steve Verdon, Michael Mandel, and Brad DeLong all commented last week.
August 21, 2006
Does Manufacturing Matter? An Update
Manufacturing employment is down. So is the manufacturing share of output. And so is the estimated tradable share of output. Consequently, as the Economist noted recently, adjustment to a smaller current account deficit might be difficult.
August 19, 2006
The yield curve: Mid-August 2006
What to make of the newest inversion?
August 18, 2006
The 2001 recession revisited
With revised data, when did the last recession begin?
August 17, 2006
Are we winning the war against the budget deficit?
The Congressional Budget Office released its update on the budget outlook today. What's the message behind the message?
August 16, 2006
A closer look at the US-China trade figures...and more on the RMB
The Renminbi (RMB) is probably undervalued, according to some criteria. Would adjusting it fix the US-China trade deficit? Or the overall US trade deficit?
August 14, 2006
Billions for production, not a cent for conservation...
Well, not quite. But I find it interesting to see how much revenue the government loses by giving tax breaks to certain groups in the energy arena.
August 11, 2006
Good and not-so-good reasons to disagree with Bernanke
Some of the reasons people have given for why the Fed should keep raising interest rates make sense to me, and some don't.
August 10, 2006
How do oil price shocks affect the economy?
That's the topic of the latest Wall Street Journal Econoblog, in which I was pleased to participate along with Stephen Brown, who is Director of Energy Economics and Microeconomic Policy Analysis at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
The June 2006 Trade Figures
Persisting trends, for now
August 09, 2006
Could it be that we're already in a recession? Lessons from the last episode
There's a lot of talk about recession these days, despite the fairly rapid average growth of GDP in the past few quarters. Krugman (via DeLong) observes a slowdown is coming that might feel a lot like a recession. DeLong considers whether Fed policy has already raised rates to such a degree a recession is inevitable. Roubini bravely cites probabilities. My colleague James Hamilton provides a contrasting opinion, based upon his academic work with Chauvet [pdf].
August 08, 2006
Econbrowser (and hopefully Bernanke) gets it right
August 07, 2006
Bad news from Alaska
The response of oil prices to the news from Alaska has been more modest than I was expecting, with the September NYMEX crude contract currently up about $2 to $77/barrel.
August 04, 2006
A pause it shall be
The last month has been something of a cliffhanger for Fed watchers. But today the market seemed to make up its mind.
August 03, 2006
Autos again taking a hit
The Big 3 U.S. automakers continue to get a little less big.
August 02, 2006
The enigmatic Yuan
The Yuan has not been moving much. Or has it? And does it matter much for the U.S. current account deficit