September 29, 2006
Amaranth hedge fund losses
How in the world did hedge fund Amaranth Advisors manage to lose $6 billion in September on natural gas trading?
September 27, 2006
Seasonals in new home sales
New home sales could be worse. But don't overlook the seasonals and the fundamentals.
September 26, 2006
Further reflections on productivity and compensation trends
Another way to look at the relationship between productivity and real compensation.
September 24, 2006
What do Russia and California have in common?
September 21, 2006
Two Pictures and Prospects for the Dollar
The dollar weakens. Why? For how long? Against Whom?
September 20, 2006
Watching housing slide
The Census Bureau yesterday released August data for housing permits and new housing starts, both of which confirm that we are in the midst of a significant housing downturn.
September 19, 2006
Current Account Release for 2006q2
September 17, 2006
Productivity and Compensation
A close-up picture
September 15, 2006
Steady as she goes
Some analysts, convinced a catastrophe is looming, are starting to jump at shadows. But this week's numbers do not give me much cause for alarm.
September 14, 2006
Measuring the U.S.-China trade balance
September 13, 2006
Gasoline prices will fall even more
At the start of this month, I joined others in predicting that U.S. gasoline prices would soon be below $2.50 a gallon. The price has already dropped 20 cents to $2.60 a gallon since then, and it now appears likely to go down at least another 30 cents from here.
September 12, 2006
The July 2006 Trade Release
"Job Creation Continues: More than 5.7 Million Jobs Created Since August 2003" -- White House
Following up on Floyd Norris's article on how slow employment growth has been during the current expansion, as well as numerous other comments on the Web, I examine other dimensions of labor market performance.
September 10, 2006
Ex post versus ex ante benefit-cost analysis: Iraq 2003-
Now that the long-delayed Senate report on pre-Iraq War intelligence has finally put the Republican imprimatur on the well-established fact that the case for Iraqi WMD's had been hyped (as well as the absence of a Iraq-al Qaeda link), we can return our attention to a rational benefit-cost assessment for the invasion and subsequent occupation, ex ante as well as (quasi) ex post.
September 08, 2006
Big Oil takes on a Big Job
September 07, 2006
Trade Deficit Watch: 2006q2
Stabilization in the non-oil trade balance arrives. What needs to happen for adjustment to continue without a recession?
September 05, 2006
House prices still climbing
The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) today released its house price indexes for 2006:Q2, which continue to show house prices climbing in all but five states, though with a significantly slower rate of increase than previously.
The labor market and the incipient slowdown
Some other aspects of the employment release in context.
September 04, 2006
Autos remain weak
Auto sales still a weak spot for the economy, but no big plunge yet.
September 01, 2006
Gasoline prices coming down
U.S. gasoline prices have been dropping and will likely fall further.