October 20, 2006
Map showing projected outcomes of U.S. senate elections
Via Midas Oracle, a neat map from Computational Complexity showing the current Tradesports probabilities for U.S. Senate outcomes. Like the graphics I collected here, this is continually updated live.
Posted by James Hamilton at October 20, 2006 10:24 AMdigg this | reddit
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Tracked on October 20, 2006 11:46 AM
The map is nice. The map makers' comment is hypocritical. I state why here: http://caveatbettor.blogspot.com/2006/10/you-call-it-corn-i-call-it-amazing.html
Posted by: caveatBettor at October 20, 2006 11:44 AM
I participated in the '04 tradesports presidential election market. I bet on Bush to hedge against a Kerry loss.
What was fascinating was how the implied probability of a Bush win, which had been sitting at about 60% essentially since the contract had been opened, plummetted only about 30% as the results were coming in -- then suddenly switched back and headed towards 100% in the final minutes!
Maybe the market knew something the rest of the world still hasn't figured out.
Anyway, it's a shame these criminals have made it illegal now. They might as well make investing illegal.
Posted by: diw at October 20, 2006 06:38 PM
It should be noted that the volume on some of these races is very, very low (fewer than a 100 total trades/purchases for some races), so in that respect it might not be as accurate as it would be for the the high volume races where lots of people are paying close attention to what is going on politically.
Posted by: urstoff at October 21, 2006 04:50 PM