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December 29, 2006
WIN buttons and Arthur Burns
I normally find myself agreeing with Dave Altig's high-quality analysis over at Macroblog. But I'm afraid I have to leave Dave all alone in his latest quixotic mission to defend Arthur Burns (Chair of the Federal Reserve during the great inflationary episode from 1970 to 1978) and Gerald Ford's old WIN buttons.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 06:58 AM permalink | Comments (8)
December 28, 2006
Is Decoupling Possible?
The dream rebalancing scenario, in which adjustment of the world's imbalances occurs without fiscal responsibility returning to America, relies upon "decoupling".
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Posted by Menzie Chinn at 10:00 AM permalink | Comments (6)
December 27, 2006
Encouraging numbers for new home sales
The Census Bureau today reported that new home sales were 3.4% higher in November relative to October, on a seasonally adjusted basis.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 09:38 AM permalink | Comments (24)
December 25, 2006
Janet Yellen on Inequality in America
A survey of trends in income inequality, and some thoughts on what policy responses might be appropriate.
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Posted by Menzie Chinn at 10:20 PM permalink | Comments (20)
December 23, 2006
Blood, oil, and ideology
Mark Thoma and Two Angry Bears call attention to this post from Christopher Hayes.
Continue reading "Blood, oil, and ideology"
Posted by James Hamilton at 10:45 AM permalink | Comments (23)
December 22, 2006
Surge or no surge? minimal "burn rates" for operations in Iraq
Where are expenditure rates now? Where might they go?
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Posted by Menzie Chinn at 09:26 AM permalink | Comments (3)
December 20, 2006
The term premium and reduced volatility
I earlier discussed the role that foreign government purchases of U.S. Treasury securities may have played in reducing long-term bond yields. A study by Fed researchers Glenn Rudebusch, Eric Swanson, and Tao Wu that is soon to appear in Monetary and Economic Studies explores an alternative explanation based on reduced volatility of underlying macroeconomic and financial fundamentals.
Continue reading "The term premium and reduced volatility"
Posted by James Hamilton at 08:56 PM permalink | Comments (8)
The RMB: Where's it been and where's it going?
Faster appreciation against the dollar. And apparently against a broad basket of currencies.
Continue reading "The RMB: Where's it been and where's it going?"
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 08:45 AM permalink | Comments (12)
December 19, 2006
Glimmers of hope in new housing numbers
Last month's surprisingly bad numbers for housing are now followed by some mixed good cheer from the Census Bureau and the National Association of Home Builders.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 08:54 AM permalink | Comments (14)
December 18, 2006
Econoblog on "Dollars, Debt and the Trade Gap"
Thoughts on the Dropping Dollar
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Posted by Menzie Chinn at 04:00 PM permalink | Comments (17)
Additional thoughts on Iraq
Shivaji Sondhi and Michael Cook, who direct the Project on Oil, Energy and the Middle East at the Princeton Institute of International and Regional Studies, offer these additional thoughts for the cross-blog discussion on Iraq as a follow-up to their original contribution.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 08:55 AM permalink | Comments (8)
December 15, 2006
Bernanke in China
Distortion versus effective subsidy.
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Posted by Menzie Chinn at 12:24 PM permalink | Comments (17)
December 14, 2006
Blogging colloquium on Iraq
Dave Schuler and his Glittering Eye have called for a cross-blog discussion on options and prospects for Iraq. I'm glad to contribute with some thoughts on the economic situation, and invite you to participate as well, with comments left here or at any of the other participating sites.
Continue reading "Blogging colloquium on Iraq"
Posted by James Hamilton at 04:10 PM permalink | Comments (13)
December 12, 2006
The October Trade Release
The non-oil trade balance stabilizes. Petroleum-related imports exceed the US-China trade deficit.
Continue reading "The October Trade Release"
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 01:02 PM permalink | Comments (15)
December 11, 2006
2006 and the Econbrowser crystal ball
This seems like a good time to review some of the occasions over the last year when I've been brave (or foolish) enough to make a specific quantitative prediction.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 05:12 PM permalink | Comments (11)
December 10, 2006
The Economic Debate over Minimum Wage Effects
A little bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing. How does extending the debate beyond Econ 101 levels of analysis change the nature of the debate?
Continue reading "The Economic Debate over Minimum Wage Effects"
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 08:46 PM permalink | Comments (24)
December 08, 2006
Employment remains solid
This week's employment data do not show an economy in recession.
Continue reading "Employment remains solid"
Posted by James Hamilton at 09:52 AM permalink | Comments (11)
December 07, 2006
Compensation Catch-up Postponed
The Administration has been lauding the acceleration in compensation growth. Newly revised figures indicate that the rejoicing was premature, as Q2 real compensation growth was revised downward.
Continue reading "Compensation Catch-up Postponed"
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 07:10 AM permalink | Comments (12)
December 06, 2006
November auto sales
November U.S. light vehicle sales were 2.8% higher than last year. Sounds good, until you take a closer look.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 07:36 AM permalink | Comments (10)
December 05, 2006
China: Over-investment or not
There's been a debate whether investment rates in China are sustainable or not.
Continue reading "China: Over-investment or not"
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 07:04 AM permalink | Comments (16)
December 03, 2006
The yield curve and foreign purchases of U.S. debt
A few weeks ago I discussed some new research that suggests that the current negative spread between long-term and short-term yields may be a little less worrisome than earlier studies had led us to conclude, to the extent that the negative spread in part results from an unusually low term premium on U.S. bonds rather than an expectation of future declines in short-term yields. One factor that may be depressing that term premium is foreign holdings of U.S. securities.
Continue reading "The yield curve and foreign purchases of U.S. debt"
Posted by James Hamilton at 12:00 PM permalink | Comments (26)