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February 28, 2007
Easy come, easy go
Well, that 3.5% 2006:Q4 GDP growth was fun while it lasted.
Continue reading "Easy come, easy go"
Posted by James Hamilton at 04:57 PM permalink | Comments (10)
Recession watch
Recent data leave me significantly more bearish than I was a month ago.
Continue reading "Recession watch"
Posted by James Hamilton at 11:31 AM permalink | Comments (20)
February 27, 2007
The Fundamentals Are...
The equity indices take a dive. Is this in spite of -- or because of -- the fundamentals?
Continue reading "The Fundamentals Are..."
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 05:38 PM permalink | Comments (18)
February 25, 2007
Fiscal Stimulus under Current Law and under a Probable Alternative
The CBO released The Cyclically Adjusted and Standardized Budget Measures last Thursday.
Continue reading "Fiscal Stimulus under Current Law and under a Probable Alternative"
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 07:15 PM permalink | Comments (13)
February 24, 2007
Creative exam answers
Now this is funny.
Posted by James Hamilton at 11:36 AM permalink | Comments (2)
February 23, 2007
San Diego County pension fund
I have been developing concerns about the possibility that hedge fund investment flows have become a destabilizing force in world financial markets. Following the maxim "think globally, act locally," I decided to take a look at how the behavior of our local pension funds may be one small part of that phenomenom. And I have some recommendations to make on behalf of San Diego County residents and the world at large.
Continue reading "San Diego County pension fund"
Posted by James Hamilton at 05:40 AM permalink | Comments (46)
February 22, 2007
The Growth Outlook
The Society Survey of Professional Forecasters latest report (dated 13 February) has been released. The mean forecast is quite interesting, in light of Jim's recent post on industrial production and the growth outlook.
Continue reading "The Growth Outlook"
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 10:25 AM permalink | Comments (8)
February 21, 2007
Worrisome data on industrial production
Overshadowed by the euphoria over Bernanke's testimony last week was news that the Federal Reserve Board's index of industrial production fell one-half percent in January.
Continue reading "Worrisome data on industrial production"
Posted by James Hamilton at 05:29 AM permalink | Comments (18)
February 20, 2007
2+2=3
Or some (more) things in the Budget Proposal don't add up
Suppose the President's plan to escalate troop levels in Iraq succeeds in stabilizating Baghdad. What does that mean for future expenditures in support of the occupation of Iraq? Is the President's $50 billion request for Iraq related expenditures in FY2009 consistent with the plan? This article from GovExec.com provides some hints.
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 07:45 AM permalink | Comments (1)
February 17, 2007
Saudi oil production cuts
This is a potentially huge story that is not being adequately investigated by the financial press.
Continue reading "Saudi oil production cuts"
Posted by James Hamilton at 04:55 PM permalink | Comments (50)
February 16, 2007
The December Trade Release: Beyond the Surprise
Almost old news, the February 13 BEA/Census release for December trade provided ample grist for the mill. Insightful perspective was provided by Brad Setser and David Altig. Here I try to add a few other insights.
Continue reading "The December Trade Release: Beyond the Surprise"
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 06:21 AM permalink | Comments (2)
February 15, 2007
The market reads Bernanke's lips
The Fed Chair speaks, and the market jumps. But why?
Continue reading "The market reads Bernanke's lips"
Posted by James Hamilton at 09:01 AM permalink | Comments (17)
February 13, 2007
Resources for economics students and professors
Here is a collection of links to recent news stories that apply some of the ideas we've covered in the principles of economics class I'm teaching at UCSD this quarter.
Continue reading "Resources for economics students and professors"
Posted by James Hamilton at 08:42 PM permalink | Comments (0)
February 12, 2007
The 2007 Economic Report of the President on Exchange Rate Determination (and the Renminbi)
The 2007 Economic Report of the President was released Monday afternoon. Chapter 7, entitled "Currency Markets and Exchange Rates," is a laudable exegesis on the determination of exchange rates.
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 08:30 PM permalink | Comments (8)
February 11, 2007
How Paul Volcker became a practical monetarist
A bit of history I only recently learned.
Continue reading "How Paul Volcker became a practical monetarist"
Posted by James Hamilton at 09:04 AM permalink | Comments (10)
February 09, 2007
Is a 12 Step Program Needed for Policymaking in Washington?
From the Wikipedia entry on 12-step programs:
Continue reading "Is a 12 Step Program Needed for Policymaking in Washington?"
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 03:40 PM permalink | Comments (8)
February 08, 2007
Ethanol subsidies
Why do Americans love their ethanol so much?
Continue reading "Ethanol subsidies"
Posted by James Hamilton at 06:04 AM permalink | Comments (35)
February 07, 2007
Guest column from John Taylor on Milton Friedman
Econbrowser is pleased to host these remarks from Stanford Professor John Taylor, which were delivered at the memorial service held at Hoover Institution and Stanford University on January 22.
Continue reading "Guest column from John Taylor on Milton Friedman"
Posted by James Hamilton at 11:41 AM permalink | Comments (9)
New takes on the New Deal
There's a really interesting Econoblog this week featuring Arnold Kling and Brad DeLong. Unlike the slugfest between Menzie and Kash, there are actually some profound disagreements between these two.
Continue reading "New takes on the New Deal"
Posted by James Hamilton at 06:49 AM permalink | Comments (11)
February 06, 2007
A Race between Inflows and the Deficit
From today's Reuters:
Continue reading "A Race between Inflows and the Deficit"
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 12:34 PM permalink | Comments (9)
February 04, 2007
How to balance the Federal budget, Bush style
First, assume away expenses...
Continue reading "How to balance the Federal budget, Bush style"
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 09:08 PM permalink | Comments (39)
Manufacturing, Tradables, and Trade Adjustment
In his preview of the 2007 Economic Report of the President, CEA Chair Ed Lazear presented the argument that manufacturing output is still growing.
Continue reading "Manufacturing, Tradables, and Trade Adjustment"
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 06:37 PM permalink | Comments (9)
February 01, 2007
GM and Ford down, Toyota and Nissan up
Stop me if you think you've heard this one before.
Continue reading "GM and Ford down, Toyota and Nissan up"
Posted by James Hamilton at 09:25 PM permalink | Comments (21)
Trends in exports and imports
The NIPA release of January 31 contained a couple of surprises, including on the international front. The external accounts did provide a bit of a kick on growth, as shown in Jim Hamilton's post.
Continue reading "Trends in exports and imports"
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 08:25 AM permalink | Comments (11)