March 30, 2007
San Diego County pension fund sues Amaranth hedge fund
March 29, 2007
Nonresidential investment spending: The message in the March 29 release
GDP growth was revised up in today's NIPA release. But there are some interesting aspects in the details.
March 28, 2007
About that downside
March 27, 2007
Maybe we can't count on exorbitant privilege/dark matter/manna from heaven...
The new conventional wisdom is that the return foreigners obtain on U.S. assets is less than the return U.S. residents obtain on foreign assets. And that this means that the U.S. can build up a bigger foreign debt than traditional analyses; I've been skeptical , . Now, we have more reason to ask how robust is the finding of a durable earnings differential in favor of U.S. investors?
New and existing home sales
March 26, 2007
This week's Carnival of the Capitalists is hosted by Political Calculations (of calculate your own recession probability fame). In addition to PC's usual dazzling display of cool scripts, Ironman had the excellent taste to designate Econbrowser's Bubble, Bubble, Toil and Trouble as "The Best Post of the Week, Anywhere". Which maybe gives y'all a chance to start a new thread for discussion of just what's been driving the housing market.
March 25, 2007
Some Implications of "Staying the Course"
The numbers are flying around -- so much so that one cannot be sure of where force levels will be in a few months. However, based upon press reports and data provided by the Brookings Institution's Iraq Index, we can make some educated guesses.
March 23, 2007
Bubble, bubble, toil, and trouble
It didn't look to me like a bubble on the way up, and it doesn't look to me like a bubble on the way down.
March 22, 2007
Three Four Pictures from the Investment Sector
Several observers have taken solace from the jump in housing starts; however others have noted the implications of the decline in housing permit applications are not so rosy.
March 20, 2007
San Diego city pension fund
I earlier described some disturbing details about the assets held by the San Diego County Employees Retirement Association. Our separate pension fund for city employees, the San Diego City Employees' Retirement System, is another tale of local woe that I worry may have global implications.
March 18, 2007
Attaining Internal and External Equilibrium in China
China raises rates again. What will higher rates do?
Life on Saturn's moon?
The mainstream media caught the story of apparent seas made of methane or ethane on Saturn's largest moon Titan. But there was an even more interesting account about tiny Enceladus.
March 17, 2007
Disappointing numbers on inflation and retail sales
March 16, 2007
Caribbean ethanol imports
What happens when you mandate use of ethanol and heavily tax its importation?
March 15, 2007
Negative Net Income: The 2006 Balance of Payments
Most commentary on the 2006q4 current account balance release focused on the improvement in the overall balance. Little noted is the fact that 2006 is the first year in which the net income category has registered negative.
March 13, 2007
The Term Spread, Cross Country
How does the term spread correlate with recession in other economies?
New Century Financial Corporation, formerly one of the nation's biggest subprime mortgage lenders, has had a spectacular trip up and even more spectacular trip down.
March 11, 2007
Fannie, Freddie, and Ben
March 10, 2007
The January Trade Balance: Reading the Tea Leaves
Are declining capital imports growth rates an indicator of recession?
March 09, 2007
Slower employment growth
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today that U.S. nonfarm payrolls, as measured by their survey of establishments, increased by a seasonally adjusted 97,000 workers in February.
March 08, 2007
WMDs in Iraq, "Last throes..." and... "deficits don't matter"
According to former Secretary of Treasury Paul O'Neill, Dick Cheney is reputed to have said: "...deficits don't matter." (see Suskind's The Price of Loyalty, and online here). What's the (updated) evidence?
March 06, 2007
Financial or banking panics were a recurrent theme in 19th-century U.S. economic history.
March 05, 2007
Globalization and Inflation: Thinking about Identification
Recent news articles (, ) and blog posts (Economists View, Big Picture) have discussed Bernanke's March 2 speech on globalization and inflation.
March 03, 2007
Featuring prominently in the new energy plan from President Bush is a call for changes in the corporate average fuel efficiency (CAFE) standards that the Administration claims could reduce U.S. gasoline consumption by 5% over the next 10 years. Here are some of the reasons I'm not thrilled by that suggestion.
March 01, 2007
New feature: Econbrowser faces the data
We've added a couple of new features to the sidebar.
Whither the Chinese Yuan?
The problem with writing blog posts in advance (I wrote most of this on the 25th) is that they may very well be rendered obsolete by the passage of events, especially when covering financial markets. Hopefully, in this case, the heightened uncertainty in emerging markets -- as well as the durability of the yen carry trade -- will not change the outlook for the CNY very much.