April 30, 2007
Four Years after "Mission Accomplished"
I thought that it was proper and fitting to evaluate the state of affairs in Iraq four years after President Bush declared the end of major military combat operations in Iraq.
April 29, 2007
Consumption smoothing and economic slowdowns
How alarming is it that 200% of 2007:Q1 GDP growth came from consumption spending?
April 27, 2007
Recession probability index rises to 16.9
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today that U.S. real GDP grew at an annual rate of 1.3% in the first quarter of 2007, moving our recession probability index up to 16.9%. This post provides some background on how that index is constructed and what the latest move up might signify.
April 26, 2007
The Economic Integration of Greater China
An assessment of real and financial integration, co-authored by Yin-Wong Cheung (University of California at Santa Cruz Economics), Menzie D. Chinn (University of Wisconsin at Madison La Follette School and Economics) and Eiji Fujii (Tsukuba University, Graduate School).
Further implications of the productivity slowdown for the dollar
In a previous post, I noted that the slowdown in economic growth in the US relative to rest-of-OECD would have a number implications for the dollar's value in nominal and real terms.
April 25, 2007
Current economic conditions improve
Let's admit it-- the other shoe is not yet dropping.
April 24, 2007
Why are gasoline prices going up again?
Blame crude oil and the calendar.
April 23, 2007
A New Era for the Dollar?
Riding the dollar's decline.
April 21, 2007
Assorted links to updates on some of the stories we've been following at Econbrowser, including declining Saudi Arabian oil production, the role of mortgage-backed securities, and pressures on public pension funds to take on additional risks.
April 19, 2007
The politics of future promises
I have been detailing concerns about meeting the pension and health care obligations of the city and county of San Diego. Although these challenges arise at the level of our local government, the problem appears to be national in scope, as a sampling of stories from PensionWatch makes clear.
April 18, 2007
Patent protection and technological innovation
There is a potential conflict between the two that we ought to revisit as the nature of technological advance itself undergoes profound changes.
April 17, 2007
The Coming (?) US Current Account Adjustment: Two Questions Inspired by Two Graphs
The IMF has recently released its Global Financial Stability report. Two figures inspired two questions from me.
April 16, 2007
New estimates of macroeconomic effects of tax changes
April 15, 2007
Trade adjustment via import compression or export expansion?
April 13, 2007
The Last Throes of PoMo Macro?
That is to say, is Post-Modernist Macroeconomic Policy over?
April 12, 2007
Hedge fund regulation
Fed Chair Ben Bernanke yesterday explained why he sees no need for increased regulation of hedge funds.
April 10, 2007
Are Democrats Truly More Protectionist? (Part II)
There was some disagreement with my assertion that Democrats were -- effectively -- not as protectionist as many have argued. Here are some more thoughts on the matter, as the Administration prepares the case for countervailing duties on Chinese imports .
April 09, 2007
More on Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae
More data, that is, and more questions.
April 08, 2007
Employment in March: Comparisons across Measures, Time, and Levels vs. Growth
The March employment figures have almost universally been hailed as evidence of a strong labor market, given how the announced value exceeded expectations, and the fact that previous months values were revised upward (WSJ1, WSJ2, Reuters, Bloomberg; contrarian opinion at Big Picture, Capital Spectator). (Jim Hamilton has already discussed how likely these figures are to be revised, in light of other complementary data.) Without disagreeing, I think it behooves us to consider other ways of looking at the data.
April 07, 2007
Exchange rate depreciation and expenditure switching in the United States
The IMF's April 2007 World Economic Outlook has been released -- or at least part of it. One chapter, entitled Exchange Rates and the adjustment of External Imbalances [pdf], deals with a subject close to my heart.
April 06, 2007
Strong March employment growth
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today that U.S. nonfarm payrolls, as measured by their survey of establishments, increased by a seasonally adjusted 180,000 workers in March.
April 05, 2007
Cantarell fading quickly
A big challenge for Mexico and the rest of us.
April 04, 2007
New study of the determinants of oil prices
April 02, 2007
The Subprime collapse and the housing market: a bubble or "looting"
Jim Hamilton's recent post "Bubble, bubble, toil, and trouble" elicited a tremendous amount of commentary -- and incredulity -- amongst the readers.
April 01, 2007
More speculation about Saudi Arabia
The Oil Drum has been featuring some very interesting speculation as to the meaning of the ongoing drop in Saudi Arabian oil production.