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May 31, 2007
Messages from the GDP Preliminary Release
GDP growth was revised down, as expected, in today's NIPA preliminary GDP release. At 0.6% q/q growth SAAR was below Bloomberg consensus of 0.8%. But even more revealing is the pattern in recent revisions; in addition, trade adjustment looks a bit further off.
Continue reading "Messages from the GDP Preliminary Release"
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 07:49 AM permalink | Comments (12)
May 30, 2007
Economics of the Great Depression
I was honored to be included among those interviewed for East Carolina Professor Randy Parker's new book, Economics of the Great Depression.
Continue reading "Economics of the Great Depression"
Posted by James Hamilton at 05:41 AM permalink | Comments (38)
May 29, 2007
George Borjas thinks he understands Paris Hilton
My former colleague George Borjas has a notion that he might get more traffic for his new blog if he discusses the economics of Paris Hilton.
You think he's right?
Posted by James Hamilton at 08:37 PM permalink | Comments (3)
May 28, 2007
More on Real Exchange Rate Changes and Trade Adjustment
Time for an update on estimated income and price elasticities of US trade flows. These issues are important to those of us who believe that the US remains vulnerable to shifts in the rest-of-the-world's willingness to finance the current account deficit. If you think it's just jolly fine and likely for the US to keep on borrowing at around 6.5 percent of GDP for the indefinite future, skip this post.
Continue reading "More on Real Exchange Rate Changes and Trade Adjustment"
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 11:05 PM permalink | Comments (7)
May 27, 2007
Gouge this
Maybe you think you know what I'm going to say about the Federal Price Gouging Prevention Act. So I'll surprise you by only saying nice things about the bill.
Posted by James Hamilton at 12:22 PM permalink | Comments (14)
May 26, 2007
Not dead yet
We're still not seeing the deterioration in economic conditions that some had been expecting.
Continue reading "Not dead yet"
Posted by James Hamilton at 11:01 AM permalink | Comments (27)
May 25, 2007
Econbrowser: The Movie
I appeared this week on our local PBS television station to talk about ethanol subsidies (one of my favorite rants). If you're interested, you can watch a 5-minute broadcast of that interview via KPBS Full Focus.
Posted by James Hamilton at 06:40 PM permalink | Comments (9)
One (Non-Isolated) Example of the Current State of Affairs in Government Administration
From GovExec.com:
Special counsel finds GSA chief violated Hatch Act
By Daniel Pulliam dpulliam@govexec.com May 23, 2007
A report from the federal agency that investigates allegations of illegal political activity in the government has concluded that Lurita Doan, the head of the General Services Administration, violated the Hatch Act.
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 12:01 AM permalink | Comments (15)
May 23, 2007
Who should pay this bill?
I suggested a few weeks ago that rising crude oil prices along with seasonal demand and fuel requirements were the primary cause of this spring's hike in U.S. gasoline prices. As Menzie noted yesterday, refining margins are clearly also now making an additional contribution. Which reminded me to look into the current status of the now decade-long effort of Arizona Clean Fuels to try to build a new refinery.
Continue reading "Who should pay this bill?"
Posted by James Hamilton at 05:27 PM permalink | Comments (42)
May 22, 2007
Gasoline prices surge: Thinking about Some Causes
Nominal gasoline prices are at an all time high. However, in real terms, April prices were not the highest. May prices might be, depending on how you calculate it (hard to figure it out since May's CPI is not yet out). From the Washington Post:
Continue reading "Gasoline prices surge: Thinking about Some Causes"
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 07:11 PM permalink | Comments (31)
May 21, 2007
Peak oil in America
The following is an article I prepared for the Peak Oil Review, which is produced by the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas.
Continue reading "Peak oil in America"
Posted by James Hamilton at 02:23 PM permalink | Comments (97)
May 19, 2007
Bernanke on subprime mortgages
If Bernanke isn't worried about subprime mortgages, should you be?
Continue reading "Bernanke on subprime mortgages"
Posted by James Hamilton at 09:35 AM permalink | Comments (29)
May 17, 2007
New study of the effects of oil price shocks on the economy
University of Michigan Professor Lutz Kilian, whose research we've often highlighted here ([1], [2]), and Michigan Ph.D. candidate Paul Edelstein have an interesting new paper on how energy price changes affect the economy.
Continue reading "New study of the effects of oil price shocks on the economy"
Posted by James Hamilton at 07:44 PM permalink | Comments (39)
Follow up on Housing Permits and Housing Starts: Do Permits "Predict"
In an earlier post on investment, I made the assertion that housing permits led housing starts. This assertion was contested by a number of observers (GWG, rana, spencer, CalculatedRisk). I've decided to revisit this question, since clearly, the best characterization of the stylized facts takes on heightened importance given the yesterday's release, as discussed by Bloomberg:
Continue reading "Follow up on Housing Permits and Housing Starts: Do Permits "Predict""
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 12:01 AM permalink | Comments (24)
May 15, 2007
Northern Ghawar is in decline
If you end up being surprised by the big story of the next decade, you can't say, "nobody told us." Instead you'll have to say, "we didn't listen."
Continue reading "Northern Ghawar is in decline"
Posted by James Hamilton at 08:17 PM permalink | Comments (115)
May 14, 2007
Tales from the WSJ Survey of Forecasts
The results of the Wall Street Journal's recent survey of forecasts were discussed in an article with the curious title "The Economy Is Clawing Back, but Not Much".
Continue reading "Tales from the WSJ Survey of Forecasts"
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 10:05 PM permalink | Comments (1)
May 13, 2007
Estimating equilibrium exchange rates: More reasons for humility
Last Tuesday, there was a unique joining of three subcommittees to address the issue of alleged Chinese currency manipulation. Here's Steve Roach's assessment [1], Mish's view [2], and news accounts by CNN [3] and by WSJ [4].
Continue reading "Estimating equilibrium exchange rates: More reasons for humility"
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 10:12 PM permalink | Comments (15)
May 12, 2007
Deciding what to worry about
Dave Altig ([1],[2]) is your source for wisdom about the latest retail sales figures.
Continue reading "Deciding what to worry about"
Posted by James Hamilton at 05:58 AM permalink | Comments (9)
May 10, 2007
Oops. Or Trade Deficit Stabilization Deferred
The March trade figures are in at BEA, and many are surprised. Bloomberg reports:
Continue reading "Oops. Or Trade Deficit Stabilization Deferred"
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 10:36 AM permalink | Comments (10)
May 09, 2007
Why hasn't construction employment plunged?
We're well into a severe housing downturn by every measure except for the number of people working in residential construction.
Continue reading "Why hasn't construction employment plunged?"
Posted by James Hamilton at 09:11 AM permalink | Comments (46)
May 08, 2007
The Empirics of Chinese Trade and Implications of Yuan Appreciation
In previous posts I've discussed some of the estimates of aggregate trade elasticities. Some new work presented at a recent IMF conference on Chinese trade suggests that we may need to revise some of our views on the efficacy of yuan appreciation for inducing expenditure switching.
Continue reading "The Empirics of Chinese Trade and Implications of Yuan Appreciation"
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 08:40 AM permalink | Comments (6)
May 06, 2007
Can this be true?
Via Captain's Quarters, in response to the Rasmussen poll question
Did Bush know about the 9/11 attacks in advance?
allegedly 35% of American Democrats answered "yes" and another 26% said they are not sure.
If that's accurate, America's system for communicating facts and ideas is seriously broken. I'm wondering if that breakdown might be related to the following dilemma. If you are a liberal elected official or opinion maker who is shown evidence of such massive delusion, do you (a) try to correct it, or (b) try to exploit it?
Posted by James Hamilton at 08:44 AM permalink | Comments (117)
May 04, 2007
New job creation slows significantly
No, I don't like the latest employment numbers.
Continue reading "New job creation slows significantly"
Posted by James Hamilton at 04:07 PM permalink | Comments (25)
May 03, 2007
Auto sales down in April
The number of new cars and light trucks sold in America was down nearly 8% in April relative to the previous year. That's a significant deterioration of the recent downward trend, but not yet a catastrophic plunge.
Continue reading "Auto sales down in April"
Posted by James Hamilton at 07:05 PM permalink | Comments (8)
Is the "Investment Disconnect" So Surprising? Could It Be Even More Extreme Than We Think?
There's been a flurry of discussion about nonresidential investment in the wake of Paul Krugman's column (purchase required) on the subject. See commentary at Economists View and Brad Delong.
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 12:00 AM permalink | Comments (25)
May 01, 2007
Idle hands are the devil's workshop
Professor Gordon Dahl (my colleague here at UCSD) and Berkeley Professor Stefano DellaVigna have an interesting new research paper titled Does Movie Violence Increase Violent Crime?
Continue reading "Idle hands are the devil's workshop"
Posted by James Hamilton at 07:34 PM permalink | Comments (8)