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July 31, 2007
Costing the Surge, and More...
Given the statements that the U.S. might be "surging the surge", expect an incremental $40 billion to be expended over the next two years.
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Posted by Menzie Chinn at 10:00 AM permalink | Comments (27)
July 30, 2007
US Economic Growth: Retrospect and Prospect
Some interesting tidbits can be gleaned from the BEA's recent release. First, despite the acceleration in growth in 2007Q2, the level of output in 2007Q2 is less than what we thought -- as of 28 June -- it was in 2007Q1. Second, q/q consumption growth now looks weaker than it did before. Third, while net exports provided a big boost to GDP growth, a large chunk of that effect is attributable to import compression, rather than export acceleration. How one views the durability of the net export effect depends in large part upon how one views the sources of import and export trends.
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Posted by Menzie Chinn at 05:20 PM permalink | Comments (18)
July 28, 2007
Recession Indicators: Where Do They Stand?
Yesterday, Jim presented his latest estimates of the recession probability [1]. Today, I want to update ([2]) where we stand regarding the indicators the NBER uses in judging whether the economy is in a recession.
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Posted by Menzie Chinn at 09:22 AM permalink | Comments (11)
July 27, 2007
Recession probability index rises to 26.2%
Definitely some things to be encouraged about by the latest GDP report, but the overall impression of economic weakness remains.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 07:46 AM permalink | Comments (15)
July 26, 2007
Ouch
No, this was not a good housing report.
Posted by James Hamilton at 05:17 PM permalink | Comments (15)
Will Dollar Depreciation Prevent A Recession?
As worries from ever expanding -- but always containable -- housing and mortgage market collapse mount (see this Reuters article), some analysts believe that the external accounts will save the day. From Bloomberg (July 23):
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Posted by Menzie Chinn at 08:20 AM permalink | Comments (4)
July 25, 2007
San Diego index of leading indicators
Professor Alan Gin's index may be of interest to those of us wondering where California's economy is headed and to anyone who might want to construct a similar index for their own local economy.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 06:23 AM permalink | Comments (6)
July 23, 2007
What is Chinese GDP really doing?
Amidst all the discussion about rampant Chinese GDP growth, the appropriate conduct of macro policy in restraining that growth, and the implications for the components of aggregate demand, a simple question leads to complicated answers.
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Posted by Menzie Chinn at 04:54 PM permalink | Comments (6)
July 22, 2007
Ethanol and food price volatility
If this is what we get in a good year, what will happen when we have a bad crop?
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Posted by James Hamilton at 06:48 AM permalink | Comments (32)
July 20, 2007
"We have always thought that America got away with something."
Well, maybe not anymore. And perhaps not even before.
The quote is from an article on how the weak dollar is raising the costs of traveling to Europe, as the USD/EUR rate flirts with 1.40. The longer quote, from yesterday's NYT article entitled "As Dollar Crumples, Tourists Overseas Reel" , is:
Continue reading ""We have always thought that America got away with something.""
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 06:55 AM permalink | Comments (10)
July 19, 2007
Bernanke on the economic outlook
In testimony before the U.S. Congress yesterday, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke continued his policy of greater openness and transparency for Federal Reserve policy, trying to lay out clearly what the Fed is most worried about.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 07:19 AM permalink | Comments (11)
July 18, 2007
Iraq update
Expenditures continue to rise. More appropriations will likely be needed at this pace.
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Posted by Menzie Chinn at 08:40 AM permalink | Comments (31)
July 17, 2007
Is OPEC relevant?
Are OPEC's recent decisions responsible for the current price of oil? I'm not persuaded that they are, and here's why.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 07:22 AM permalink | Comments (27)
July 16, 2007
More on the Yuan and the Chinese Trade Balance
More speculation on the Yuan's prospects. From Bloomberg:
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Posted by Menzie Chinn at 06:04 AM permalink | Comments (2)
July 14, 2007
More ideas on construction employment
Here are some of the thoughts from other analysts about why reported residential construction employment has not been plummeting.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 06:33 AM permalink | Comments (9)
July 13, 2007
Import prices surge...
...but mostly due to increasing oil prices.
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Posted by Menzie Chinn at 06:14 AM permalink | Comments (0)
July 12, 2007
A Tipping Point for the Dollar?
In a post over a year ago, I observed that the relative stability of the dollar would come to an end as a confluence of events occurred. Those would be the end to rises in the US interest rates, and the continued increases in policy rates abroad, especially in the euro area and the UK, against a backdrop of a massive current account deficit that requires large and continuous infusions of saving from the rest of the world (and indeed consumes most of the world's excess saving).
Continue reading "A Tipping Point for the Dollar?"
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 07:10 PM permalink | Comments (20)
Are your inflation expectations well-anchored?
Fed Chair Ben Bernanke's comments Tuesday about anchors for expected inflation left some analysts unsettled and others mystified. Bernanke was speaking to a group of academic researchers, and I believe his message was intended to provide some insights from practical policy-making to help improve the quality of academic research. So let me offer my interpretation of his message.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 08:40 AM permalink | Comments (13)
July 10, 2007
IEA becomes more pessimistic
The International Energy Agency's latest Medium-Term Oil Market Report is significantly more pessimistic about global surplus oil capacity over the next half-decade.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 05:27 PM permalink | Comments (15)
English for fun and profit
Continuing the travelogue from my recent visit to Tokyo, I was also struck by the romantic way that English gets employed commercially, with free-spirited metaphors that must mean something different to Japanese than they would to Americans. Here are some examples.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 06:42 AM permalink | Comments (8)
July 09, 2007
Energy use in Japan
I was in Japan a week ago, giving lectures at some of the universities in Tokyo and the Bank of Japan. I couldn't help but be struck by how differently energy is used in Tokyo compared with southern California.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 07:21 AM permalink | Comments (28)
July 08, 2007
The Compleat UberNerd
An UberNerd, Tanta tells us, is
someone who is compelled to understand how things work in grim detail, even if the things in question are tedious in the extreme, like mortgage insurance policies.
A Compleat UberNerd is then
Someone who has read all these posts already and quotes them at tailgate parties.
She kindly provides all the links necessary to become the Compleat UberNerd over at Calculated Risk.
Posted by James Hamilton at 12:00 PM permalink | Comments (1)
July 06, 2007
Puzzling over the employment report
How to reconcile the latest solid employment numbers with other indicators of economic weakness?
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Posted by James Hamilton at 03:25 PM permalink | Comments (14)
July 05, 2007
Maybe the Euro Isn't the Competition
Typically, people think of the euro as the most likely competitor to the dollar. And maybe it is in the long run (see these posts [1], [2], and this paper). But in the short term, maybe it's the British pound.
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Posted by Menzie Chinn at 01:12 PM permalink | Comments (6)
July 04, 2007
June auto sales
Not a good month for the domestic automakers.
Continue reading "June auto sales"
Posted by James Hamilton at 07:42 AM permalink | Comments (17)
July 03, 2007
What is an Econbrowser?
I asked TouchGraph Google Browser, and here's what it thinks.
Continue reading "What is an Econbrowser?"
Posted by James Hamilton at 11:35 AM permalink | Comments (8)
July 02, 2007
The yield curve dis-inverts, sort of
Long term yields have jumped up, as Jim noted. The spread between the 10 year and 3 month interest rate has moved positive.
Continue reading "The yield curve dis-inverts, sort of"
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 11:15 AM permalink | Comments (0)