November 30, 2007
New GDP figures
How bad can things be with almost a 5% growth rate of the real economy?
November 29, 2007
The Euro as the World's Reserve Currency: A Progress Report
Back in 2005, Jeff Frankel and I presented a series of projections about the dollar's role as the world's dominant reserve currency. We concluded:
...Whether the euro might in the future rival or surpass the dollar as the world's leading international reserve currency appears to depend on two things: (1) do enough other EU members join euroland so that it becomes larger than the US economy, and (2) does US macroeconomic policy eventually undermine confidence in the value of the dollar, in the form of inflation and depreciation.
November 27, 2007
A Pocketful of Multipliers
...or putting some bounds on the magnitudes of effects.
knzn at Economics and... had an interesting post the other day on "The Indirect Effects of Export Demand", which seems particularly germane to the current situation. After all, net export demand is one of the few bright spots in the US economy.
Relief on oil supplies
We're finally starting to see signs of gains in global oil production.
November 25, 2007
Budget Deficit Watch: Receipts Stabilize, Deficit Fails to Shrink
Reader CoRev, in commenting on this post, advises me to look at the actual data for October (instead of the CBO estimate) before declaring a trend deterioration in the budget balance. Well, the data are out.
November 24, 2007
Oil and the dollar
The dollar falls and oil prices go up. So the two must be related, right?
November 23, 2007
Why do some economists blog? (Policy edition)
Several people have asked why economists blog. Here are a couple random thoughts centered on individual characteristics.
November 21, 2007
Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae back in the news
So how worried should you be?
November 20, 2007
So now you know
As part of its ongoing efforts at helping the public understand exactly what its intentions might be, the Federal Reserve today released more detailed minutes of its October 30-31 meeting that included the Fed's expectations for what comes next.
The Credit Card Bill Comes Due (International Version)
The nation borrowed from the rest-of-the-world when interest rates were low. But interest rates can adjust. So can exchange rates. What to think of our creditors re-appraisal of the "right" effective interest rate to lend to us?
November 19, 2007
The challenge of depletion
Where's that large, unprecedented buildup of oil supply when you really need it?
November 17, 2007
Tales from the Tails of the WSJ Forecast
November 16, 2007
Trusting the birth/death model
Ray Stone of Stone & McCarthy Research Associates has some interesting observations on the quality of the payroll employment numbers released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Assessing CBO Projections
CBO releases CBO's Economic Forecasting Record: 2007 Update [pdf].
November 15, 2007
Musings on the Trade Release and Consumption Theory
Last week's trade release induced some wide-ranging thoughts, that spurred more questions than answers. In an experimental post, I'll pose some questions that I hope readers will help me answer.
November 13, 2007
New research on the causes of the housing boom and bust
What are the respective contributions of national and local factors to recent changes in house prices?
November 12, 2007
The Credit Crunch Continues, and the Conundrum Is History
The credit crunch seems to be worsening, rather than lessening, and the conundrum seems to have disappeared.
November 11, 2007
Oil, gold, the dollar, and inflation
Do the ongoing surge in gold and oil prices and slide in the dollar signal a resurgence of inflation?
November 10, 2007
The Expansion Compared: An Update
Just to put the 2007Q3 3.9% SAAR increase in GDP in perspective, here is how output stacks up during this expansion as compared to the last.
November 08, 2007
Modeling Exchange Rates: What Does Current Academic Thinking Have to Say about the Dollar's Future?
As the dollar continues its decline, I think it's useful to step away from the high frequency analysis ,, to consider what the currents in academic thinking on the enterprise of predicting exchange rates are.
November 07, 2007
If this is what Federal receipts look like at full employment...
...then a balanced budget is far off.
The CBO released its November budget review yesterday. In this figure, the red dashed line (receipts) is slowing its ascent. Expenditures are falling, but to the extent that transfers rise in slowdowns, one knows the likely trajectory of the blue line.
November 06, 2007
Well then, would $100 a barrel worry you?
A week ago I reviewed the reasons why $90-a-barrel oil by itself would not be enough to cause an economic recession. As oil prices charged up to $96 on Friday, a reporter asked me at what price I'd change my mind.
November 04, 2007
Policies for a Slowdown: Pushing up Oil Prices
I find it interesting that one of the big drags on economic growth -- namely high oil prices -- is at least partially self-induced by United States policy.
Are the employment numbers as good as they sound?
This week's GDP and employment numbers were a pleasant surprise. Should this cause the Fed to change its warning in Wednesday's FOMC minutes that
the pace of economic expansion will likely slow in the near term.
November 01, 2007
Some Observations on the GDP Release
The BEA's NIPA release had some surprises for many. Here are some aspects of the release that I find surprising.