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December 30, 2007
Home sales and prices continue to fall
2007 ended like it began, only worse.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 06:00 PM permalink | Comments (27)
December 26, 2007
More on China, Currency Misalignment and Data Revisions
In a previous post on China's currency, I focused on the implications of the ADB's report on the new ICP analysis of PPP-based GDPs for misalignment estimates for China. Now, it's time to look a bit more closely at why the data revision occurred.
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Posted by Menzie Chinn at 10:22 PM permalink | Comments (1)
December 24, 2007
Christmas card
We wish a merry Christmas to all our readers and friends.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 07:07 PM permalink | Comments (10)
A Thought on the Sub-prime Debacle
Most of the NYT's recent coverage of the subprime mess focused on Greenspan and the Federal Reserve System.
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Posted by Menzie Chinn at 11:42 AM permalink | Comments (11)
December 23, 2007
The bears must wait another quarter
Currently available data on consumer spending make it very unlikely that we'll see negative real GDP growth for the fourth quarter.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 11:15 AM permalink | Comments (31)
December 21, 2007
Earning excess returns
Mark Thoma calls attention to this Washington Post article by Wharton Professor Dean Foster and Oxford Professor Peyton Young:
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Posted by James Hamilton at 07:31 AM permalink | Comments (14)
December 20, 2007
Make that Four Reasons Why Recession May be Averted
Sudeep Reddy provides five reasonsWhy Economists Are Betting A Recession Won't Happen. These reasons are ably summarized in the WSJ Real Time Economics Blog post Five Reasons Recession May Be Averted:
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Posted by Menzie Chinn at 06:15 AM permalink | Comments (17)
December 19, 2007
Wikipedia page on Oil Megaprojects
Stuart Staniford and colleagues continue to provide a great service for the rest of us in compiling the facts about new oil discoveries.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 05:58 AM permalink | Comments (10)
December 17, 2007
An Exercise in Sheer Conjecture
China, PPP, and Misalignment Estimates
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Posted by Menzie Chinn at 08:48 PM permalink | Comments (9)
December 16, 2007
Monetary policy using the asset side of the Fed's balance sheet
An interesting trend has developed in the Federal Reserve's asset holdings, a trend that the newly created term auction facility is designed to accelerate.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 12:08 PM permalink | Comments (15)
December 13, 2007
Do We Know a Trend is a Trend?
As the U.S. economy goes into a downturn, we are going to be reminded that extrapolating trends is a hazardous enterprise. For instance, linear extrapolation of tax receipts (expressed as a share of GDP) is probably something that one should be wary of doing. And yet, as shown in some comments on previous posts (see here and here), there seems to be too much belief in what ocular regressions can tell one.
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Posted by Menzie Chinn at 09:32 PM permalink | Comments (10)
December 12, 2007
Term auction facility
Will a new, improved discount window solve our problems?
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Posted by James Hamilton at 06:05 PM permalink | Comments (18)
A curious market reaction
I'm trying to make sense of the strong reactions to yesterday's action from the Federal Reserve.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 08:33 AM permalink | Comments (19)
December 11, 2007
Is the Dollar Near the Bottom (II)
Last week, I wrote a post examining what the measures of central tendency for the dollar's trajectory were, based upon some standard forecasts. This week, I want to examine more closely whether we should anticipate more depreciation, in real terms, by way of discussing alternative measures of the dollar's value.
Continue reading "Is the Dollar Near the Bottom (II)"
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 02:15 PM permalink | Comments (11)
December 09, 2007
The Administration Finds Fiscal Restraint
From the White House OMB on Saturday:
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Posted by Menzie Chinn at 05:56 AM permalink | Comments (42)
December 08, 2007
More on the new mortgage plan
While the plan may not be as big a deal as we thought, the problem still is.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 10:13 AM permalink | Comments (3)
December 07, 2007
Some questions about the new mortgage plan
Part of this plan sounds like an unambiguously good idea. But most of the coverage I've seen is ignoring what should be the key questions.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 09:00 AM permalink | Comments (18)
December 06, 2007
Is the Dollar Near the Bottom?
Some analysts think so.
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Posted by Menzie Chinn at 08:33 AM permalink | Comments (6)
December 05, 2007
November auto sales down modestly
Weakness in autos, but it's not as bad as it could be.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 06:05 AM permalink | Comments (4)
December 04, 2007
Has Industrial Production Peaked?
And what would it mean if it had?
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Posted by Menzie Chinn at 07:10 AM permalink | Comments (12)
December 02, 2007
The White House and Other Economic Forecasts
On Thursday, the White House released its new forecasts. How does it compare against other forecasts?
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Posted by Menzie Chinn at 04:07 PM permalink | Comments (9)
December 01, 2007
Risk premia creeping higher
Since Halloween, financial markets seem to be getting spooked again.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 11:11 AM permalink | Comments (11)