As the G-20 leaders meet in London, one graph should remind the representatives of these disparate countries of their shared interest in restoring the health of the financial systems of the developed countries.
Monthly Archives: March 2009
A Table and a Picture from the OECD Economic Outlook
According to the OECD, America’s economy will be shrinking throughout 2009. The rest-of-the-world won’t be doing so hot either.
The Fed’s new balance sheet
My previous post reviewed the profound changes in the balance sheet of the U.S. Federal Reserve over the last 18 months. Here I comment on some of the concerns that the new Fed balance sheet raises for the conduct of monetary policy.
Money creation and the Fed
A lot of people have seen this picture of the recent behavior of the monetary base and wondered what it means.
The Debt to GDP Trajectory in Perspective
There’s been substantial discussion of how the debt-to-GDP ratio evolves under the Obama plan. In part, the House attempts to pare back certain provisions of the Obama budget are a reaction to the projected rise in the debt-to-GDP ratio [0].
Is the worst behind us?
A couple of weeks ago we received the encouraging news that retail sales for both January and February were 1.8% above December. On Monday the National Association of Realtors reported that February sales of existing homes were 5.1% above January levels on a seasonally adjusted basis. Today the Census Bureau reported that new orders for manufactured durable goods rose 3.4% in February, with new orders for nondefense capital goods up 7.4%. And also today the Census Bureau reported that new home sales in February were up 4.7% (on a seasonally adjusted basis) relative to January. Is the tide starting to turn?
The Stimulus Package Considered against a Deteriorating Macro Backdrop
Here are the latest CBO forecasts of the output gap and unemployment rate, as well as counterfactual gap and rate that would have taken place in the absence of the stimulus package.
The first votes are in
The Federal Reserve can’t be entirely pleased with markets’ reaction to its announcement on Wednesday of quantitative goals for purchases of long-term assets.
2009 NCAA Bracket: Round 1
Congratulations to J. Graham, who successfully predicted 7 of the 10 NCAA round 1 upsets to lead the
2009 NCAA Bracket Econbrowser Challenge and come in ahead of 99.9% of the global ESPN entries. The future for Graham 1 does not look so bright, however, since Wakeforest’s first-round loss blew a pretty big hole in the rest of that nice bracket.
Guest Post: President Obama’s Plan to Improve Small Business Credit
By Robert Fairlie
Today, we’re fortunate to have Rob Fairlie, UC Santa Cruz Professor of Economics as a guest blogger. Some of his work was discussed in this earlier post.
On Monday, President Obama announced a plan to unfreeze capital for small businesses (see here). With the potential of creating new jobs and helping the country move out of the recession, the White House offered several actions to help small businesses obtain the capital that they need. The financial crisis has taken a devastating toll on entrepreneurs as capital has become increasingly scarce. This year’s projections for loans guaranteed by the Small Business Administration are down to $10 billion, which is half the amount of loans guaranteed last year.