November 30, 2009
CBO's Assessment of ARRA's Impact on Q3 Output and Employment
...Economic output and employment in the spring and summer of 2009 were lower than CBO had projected at the beginning of the year. But in CBO's judgment, that outcome reflects greater-than-projected weakness in the underlying economy rather than lower-than-expected effects of ARRA.
In other words, the continued deterioration of the economy through the first few months after the passage of ARRA was not due to the stimulus package; rather underlying conditions had deteriorated, and the economy would have been in a worse state in the absence of the package. This is similar to the points I made here:   
November 29, 2009
From VoxEU: The Great Trade Collapse
World trade experienced a sudden, severe and synchronised collapse in late 2008 -- the sharpest in recorded history and deepest since WWII. This Ebook -- written for the world's trade ministers gathering for the WTO's Trade Ministerial in Geneva -- presents the economics profession's received wisdom on the collapse....
Cash for appliances
From the folks who brought you Cash for Clunkers.
November 26, 2009
Blogonomics: Some Random Thoughts
Back in late October, I was invited to a Bank of Canada workshop (organized by Brigitte Desroches and James Rossiter), entitled "Understanding economic outcomes in uncertain times". I was flattered (and a little surprised) to be asked to participate in a panel discussion on "blogonomics", chaired by David Wolf of the Bank of Canada. On the panel were esteemed fellow bloggers David Altig of Macroblog and Stephen Gordon of Worthwhile Canadian Initiative.
November 25, 2009
Yes the future deficits are worrisome
November 23, 2009
Debt and Interest Rates: Some Empirical Evidence and Implications
Today's NYT article suggests apocalypse (very) soon:
...the government faces a payment shock similar to those that sent legions of overstretched homeowners into default on their mortgages.
Do we really need to worry so much in the short term?
November 22, 2009
Factors in local house price declines
UCSD Ph.D. candidate Sam Dastrup has completed a very interesting study with his advisor Professor Richard Carson of what accounts for differences across U.S. communities in the magnitude of the decline in real estate prices that we've seen over the last several years.
November 21, 2009
Baselines, Counterfactuals and the Stimulus
Apropos the post on evaluating the impact of the stimulus, here is graphical depiction of what IHS Global Insight, Macroeconomic Advisers, and Moody's predicted under the counterfactual of no stimulus against the w/stimulus outlook (from NYT).
November 19, 2009
China, the Renminbi, and Global Imbalances: A Quantitative View
GDP: Revisions and Forecasts
There's been some discussion of how the GDP estimates for 2009Q3 might be revised downward in light of the September trade release . e-Forecasting has presented its latest estimates up to October, and Macroeconomic Advisers through September. Macroeconomic Advisers writes:
November 18, 2009
Receiver operating characteristics curve
Travis Berge and Oscar Jorda of the University of California, Davis have an interesting new paper on statistical criteria for distinguishing economic expansions from recessions.
November 16, 2009
Assessing the Impact of Government Policy on Widget Consumption and Widget Sector Capital Usage
Let supply and demand for widgets (y) be given by the following two equations, respectively:
(1) yt = αt + β x t + ε t
(2) yt = γ + δ x t + Γ z t + u t
The Global Surface Temperature Anomaly
November 15, 2009
Why are the prices of so many commodities rising in an economy that seems to remain quite weak?
November 11, 2009
Politico Does Economic Analysis...
Be afraid; be very afraid.
From "'Created or saved' doesn't add up", by Joseph Lawler:
...[t]he "created or saved" numbers are meaningless. The administration purposefully devised the metric to be nebulous. Without a counterfactual, showing the trend of unemployment in the absence of the stimulus, it is impossible to know how many jobs the stimulus saved.
November 10, 2009
Will rising oil prices derail the recovery?
November 09, 2009
"Where's the Consumption Disaster?"
Casey Mulligan asks:
So a year later, in September 2009, after living through a year of "disaster," how did real consumption expenditure (one economists' favorite measures of living standards) compare to what it was in September 2008?
Guest Contribution: The Liquidity Trap Does Not Make Monetary Policy Ineffective
By Joseph E. Gagnon
November 07, 2009
Consequences of the Lehman failure
William Sterling of Trilogy Global Advisors has an interesting new paper on the abrupt changes in financial markets subsequent to Lehman's bankruptcy on September 15, 2008.
November 05, 2009
Some Thoughts Elicited by Reading Some Calibration Papers
(Warning: Might be considered "wonky" by some) In many economic analyses, one wants to isolate the "business cycle" component of macroeconomic series. Here is one such series, which has had a detrending technique applied to it. Try to guess what it is.
November 04, 2009
Current economic conditions
The U.S. recovery is underway. But so far it doesn't look as strong as we had been hoping.
November 02, 2009
Prospects for Employment under Differing Econometric Specifications
Most economists are projecting a slow recovery in terms of employment. What do historical correlations imply?