January 26, 2010
CBO's Budget and Economic Outlook Update
Posted by Menzie Chinn at January 26, 2010 09:50 AMdigg this | reddit
They say it's $1.3 trillion.
Posted by: Cedric Regula at January 26, 2010 11:24 AM
here is the correct one:
Posted by: alex at January 26, 2010 11:31 AM
Thanks to alex for the correction. I've fixed the link. Apologies to all.
Posted by: Menzie Chinn at January 26, 2010 01:54 PM
The trash can is quite a good place for this report.
There isn't anything in this report that indicates an understanding what caused the economic crisis. It is said the deep recession was triggered by the financial crisis and falling asset prices, as if the financial crisis came out of nowhere and the fall in asset prices is supposedly an abnormality compared to how things should be. Not a word about the excessive levels of private debt accumulated over the last 30 years, which were the fuel for economic expansion in United States and the world economy, and that massive asset price inflation, e.g. in the housing sector and in the stock market, was a consequence of exponential expansion of private debt. Consequently, there isn't any assessment whether the deeper cause of the crisis has been eliminated or whether it is still present. So the projections are founded on the view things will just go back to normal from here, apparently to some equilibrium according to the neo-classical model world, although somewhat slower than usual.
I think it's highly likely that these projections provided by the CBO under this administration will be equally a laugh a few years later as the projections from the Bush administration time have become already.
Posted by: rootless cosmopolitan at January 26, 2010 05:05 PM
CBO is independent of the administration. I believe you are confusing it with OMB.
Posted by: Brian Quinn at January 26, 2010 08:01 PM
You are right. I better would have referred to who is controlling congress and senate and their budget committees to put it in a time context.
Anyway, it doesn't change anything what I said about the report.
Here is an example from the past to which I referred:
Is there any reason to consider the economic analysis and the projections in the current report as more reliable than those past ones?
Posted by: rootless cosmopolitan at January 26, 2010 11:08 PM
Most likely a leak from an inaugural speech in Davos.
Posted by: ppcm at January 27, 2010 04:39 AM