January 04, 2010
Some International Finance at ASSA
Jan. 4, 8:00 am, AEA/KAEA
Global Financial Crisis, Regional Integration and Policy Responses in East Asia (F3) Presiding: Yoonbai Kim (University of Kentucky)
- The Global Crisis and Capital Flows to Emerging Markets, Phillip R. Lane, III (Trinity College Dublin and CEPR )
- Comparison of Asian Crisis 1997-98 and Global Crisis of 2008-09, Takatoshi Ito (Tokyo University)
- Capital Inflows and Liquidity Crunch during the 2007-09 Global Economic Crisis, Shang-Jin Wei (Columbia University), Hui Tong (International Monetary Fund )
- Surfing the Waves of Globalization: Asia and Financial Globalization in the Context of the Trilemma, Menzie Chinn (University of Wisconsin), Joshua Aizenman (University of California-Santa Cruz), Hiro Ito (Portland State University)
- Ceyhun Bora Durdu (Federal Reserve Board)
- Woochan Kim (KDI School of Public Policy & Management)
- Kwanho Shin (Korea University)
- Cheol S. Eun (Georgia Tech)
Jan. 5, 10:15 am, AEA
Dealing with Exchange Rate Misalignments (F4), Presiding: Charles Engel (University of Wisconsin)
- Understanding the Forward Premium Puzzle A Microstructure Approach, Craig Burnside (Duke University), Martin Eichenbaum (Northwestern University), Sergio Rebelo (Northwestern University)
- Assessing the Emerging Global Financial Architecture: Measuring the Trilemma's Configurations over Time, Joshua Aizenman (University of California-Santa Cruz), Menzie Chinn (University of Wisconsin) Hiro Ito (Portland State University)
- Chronicle of Large Currency Collapses: Re-examining the Effects on Output, Matthieu Bussiere (Banque de France), Sweta Saxena (International Monetary Fund), Camilo Tovar (Bank for International Settlements)
- Currency Misalignments and Optimal Monetary Policy: A Reexamination, Charles Engel (University of Wisconsin)
- Mark Taylor (BlackRock Global Investors and Warwick University)
- Roberto Chang (Rutgers University)
- Giancarlo Corsetti (European University Institute)
- Chris Erceg (Federal Reserve Board)
From the abstract to "Surfing...":
Using the "trilemma indexes" developed by Aizenman et al. (2008) that measure the extent of achievement in each of the three policy goals in the trilemma, monetary independence, exchange rate stability, and financial openness, this paper examines how policy configurations affect macroeconomic performances with focus on the Asian economies. We find that the three policy choices do not matter for per capita economic growth. However, they do matter for output volatility and the medium-term level of inflation. Greater monetary independence is associated with lower output volatility while greater exchange rate stability implies greater output volatility, which can be mitigated if a country holds IR at a higher level than a threshold (around 20% of GDP). Greater monetary autonomy is associated with a higher level of inflation while greater exchange rate stability and greater financial openness could lower the inflation level. We find that trilemma policy configurations and external finances affect output volatility mainly through the investment channel. While a higher degree of exchange rate stability could stabilize the real exchange rate movement, it could also make investment volatile, though the volatilityenhancing effect of exchange rate stability on investment can be cancelled by holding higher levels of international reserves (IR). Greater financial openness helps reduce real exchange rate volatility. These results indicate that policy makers in a more open economy would prefer pursuing greater exchange rate stability and greater financial openness while holding a massive amount of IR. Asian emerging market economies are found to be equipped with macroeconomic policy configurations that help the economies to dampen the volatilities in both investment and real exchange rate. These economies’ sizeable amount of international reserves holding appears to help enhance the stabilizing effect of the trilemma policy choices, which explains the recent phenomenal buildup of international reserves in the region.
From the abstract to "Assessing...":
We develop a methodology that allows us to characterize in an intuitive manner the choices countries have made with respect to the trilemma during the post Bretton-Woods period. The first part of the paper deals with positive aspects of the trilemma, outlining new metrics for measuring the degree of exchange rate flexibility, monetary independence, and capital account openness. The evolution of our "trilemma indexes" illustrates that after the early 1990s, industrialized countries accelerated financial openness, but reduced the extent of monetary independence while sharply increasing exchange rate stability. This process culminated at the end of the 1990s with the introduction of the euro. In contrast, the group of developing countries pursued exchange rate stability as their key priority up to 1990, although many countries moved toward greater exchange rate flexibility from the early 1970s onward. Since 2000, measures of the three trilemma variables have converged towards intermediate levels characterizing managed flexibility, using sizable international reserves as a buffer, thus retaining some degree of monetary autonomy. Using these indexes, we also test the linearity of the three aspects of the trilemma: monetary independence, exchange rate stability, and financial openness. We confirm that the weighted sum of the three trilemma policy variables adds up to a constant, validating the notion that a rise in one trilemma variable should be traded-off with a drop of the weighted sum of the other two. The second part of the paper deals with normative aspects of the trilemma, relating the policy choices to macroeconomic outcomes such as the volatility of output growth and inflation, and medium term inflation rates. Some key findings for developing countries include: (i) greater exchange rate stability implies greater output volatility, which can only be slightly mitigated by reserve accumulation; (ii) somewhat counter to previous findings, greater exchange rate stability is also associated with greater inflation volatility, and (iii) greater monetary autonomy is associated with a higher level of inflation. We believe these results differ from those identified in previous studies due to the comprehensive nature of our analysis, which encompasses more than 100 countries and 37 years, as well as the inclusion of a number of additional structural and policy variables in the regressions.
By the way, even the papers not online at the AEA website might be online elsewhere.
The University of Wisconsin-Madison is also represented in this panel.
Jan. 4, 2:30 pm, AEA
International Financial Markets (F4), Presiding: Kenneth West (University of Wisconsin)
- Global Interest Rates, Currency Returns and the Real Value of the Dollar, Charles Engel (University of Wisconsin), Kenneth D. West (University of Wisconsin)
Estimation of De Facto Flexibility Parameter and Basket Weights in Evolving Exchange Rate Regimes,
Jeffrey Frankel (Harvard University
- Growth in a Time of Debt, Carmen M. Reinhart (University of Maryland), Kenneth Rogoff (Harvard University)
- Eric van Wincoop (University of Virginia)
- Atish Ghosh (IMF)
- Olivier Jeanne (Johns Hopkins)
Finally, I have to highlight this panel:
Jan. 3, 10:15 am, AEA
Remembering Arthur S. Goldberger (Panel Discussion), Presiding: James Heckman (University of Chicago)
- Lawrence Klein (University of Pennsylvania)
- Glen Cain (University of Wisconsin)
- Kate Antonovics (University of California-San Diego)
- Gary Chamberlain (Harvard University)
- Charles Manski (Northwestern University)
- Harry Kelejian (University of Maryland)
Posted by Menzie Chinn at January 4, 2010 07:47 AMdigg this | reddit
OT: Would you or Jim care to deconstruct Bernanke's recent talk on regulation vs. interest rates?
Posted by: Steve Kopits at January 4, 2010 08:29 AM
It sounds like a very interesting meeting this year. And thanks for linking to Steve Malpezzi's post remembering Arthur S. Goldberger.
Posted by: Kris Hammargren at January 5, 2010 10:49 AM
Surfing With the Aliens. Cool!
Posted by: Cedric Regula at January 5, 2010 12:32 PM