October 06, 2011
IMF Book Forum: Lost Decades
Lost Decades: The Making of America's Debt Crisis and the Long Recovery
IMF Book Forum
Friday, October 14, 2011 From 1:30 to 3 pm
Events Hall, IMF, HQ1-01-704 (700 19th Street, NW, Washington, DC)
This event is open to the public and to Bank/Fund staff. RSVP
Featuring the authors
Menzie Chinn (University of Wisconsin, Madison; Econbrowser blog)
Jeffry Frieden (Harvard University)
Chinn and Frieden explore the origins and long-term effects of the financial crisis in historical and comparative perspective.
By 2008 the United States had become the biggest international borrower in world history, with almost half of its 6.4 trillion dollar federal debt in foreign hands. The massive inflow of foreign funds financed the booms in housing prices and consumer spending that fueled the economy until the collapse of late 2008. The authors explore the political and economic roots of this crisis as well as its long-term effects. “The book is capable of dealing with some of the most complicated economic arguments about the crisis in a way that is straightforward and capable of being understood by its audience, says Mike Konczal of the Roosevelt Institute. “If you have time to read only one book on the crisis, read this,” says acclaimed economic historian Barry Eichengreen, University of California Berkeley.
Gail Cohen (Joint Economic Committee of the U.S. Congress)
Diane Lim Rogers (Concord Coalition)
Simon Johnson (MIT and Peterson Institute; co-author of 13 Bankers)
George Akerlof (Senior Resident Scholar, Research Department, IMF; Winner of the 2001 Nobel Prize for Economics)
Posted by Menzie Chinn at October 6, 2011 06:16 PMdigg this | reddit
Unemp at 9.1%. Not better, not a disaster.
Jim's forecast continues to hold up.
Posted by: Steven Kopits at October 7, 2011 07:04 AM
Brent crude remains in significant backwardation--at $105. That's not a good sign. It either means that traders can't figure out why oil is so high or they expect a recession. But backwardation tends to cause a release of inventories (an inventory drawdown), suggesting demand is running ahead of supply outside the US.
Posted by: Steven Kopits at October 7, 2011 09:42 AM
I am reading that there is a glut of WTI at Cushing so there are higher prices in Europe causing more oil to flow to the higher prices. Is the price difference a supply difference or something else?
Posted by: Ricardo at October 7, 2011 01:14 PM
Sorry for another questions so soon after my last but doesn't this backwardation imply pressure on WTI to increase in price?
Posted by: Ricardo at October 7, 2011 01:17 PM
Menzie: please let us know if/when a webcast and transcript are posted.
Posted by: Philip Rothman at October 7, 2011 02:22 PM
Philip Rothman: I believe so; the Book Forum for Global Capitalism five years ago was webcast (and transcript posted). Not sure the webcast link is working now.
Posted by: Menzie Chinn at October 7, 2011 09:25 PM
The differential between WTI and Brent are a function of rapidly increasing oil flows from the Canadian oil sands and Bakken shales oils. These are ending up at Cushing, Ok, which is where WTI is measured.
From there, the logistics are inadequate to move the volume readily to the coastal refineries near Houston. This is now being done by truck and train. There are various plans to build or possibly re-purpose pipelines to move the oil south. But it's one more reason the Keystone XL pipeline is important: to get uncoventional oils to the refineries.
As you point out, Brent is in backwardation, WTI is not. At some time, the higher Brent and lower WTI converge, probably sometime in the 2013-2015 timeframe.
Posted by: Steven Kopits at October 8, 2011 06:31 AM
Realistic and precise "Lost Decades" is an informative and easy reading,the decomposed structure of this crisis shows a failed financial plan as opposed to a failed economic planning.
An expansion on ongoing theories,execution,lack of exit strategies may supply inspiration for further chapters.
"An Equilibrium Model of Global Imbalances and Low Interest Rates" may draw more consideration.Ways,means,complicities when compressing long term interest rates deserve more room.The benevolent nature of the public governance,the complicity of the professional structure,the responsibilities of the institutional framework need more digression.
Since it was a financial strategy, in their great wisdom planners and participants failed to address exit(s) strategies.This crisis has revealed handsome and rewarding private strategies but none when it comes to address a collective well being.
The central banks discourses on the nature of their mandates have been trough time perverted. Their fiduciary duties, that is the the preservation of the payment system has never been on the forefront of their remarks during the build up phase of this largest financial crisis,prevention is better than cure their mantra.
Louis xv had few brilliant remarks "après moi le déluge"(after me the deluge) among others,the last word remained to his butler.When passed away, the petite vérole (small pox),was a complaisant diagnostic.A late courtier to the king funeral, asked for the cause of the illness and the king butler answered " rien n'est petit chez les rois" (nothing is small with kings).
Posted by: ppcm at October 9, 2011 02:29 AM
I found a typo ( pg 44), therefore the book is crap.
Posted by: Dave at October 9, 2011 07:49 AM