January 18, 2012
Links for 2012-01-18
FT Alphaville on crude oil and the eurozone crisis.
VoxEu notes the systematic international tendency for official deficit figures to understate the magnitude of the change in public debt.
Liberty Street Economics on forecasting with internet search data.
Posted by James Hamilton at January 18, 2012 09:30 AMdigg this | reddit
2011 annual Brent crude oil prices, at $111, were well above the 2008 annual price of $97, and the 2011 price was twice the 2005 annual price of $55.
Annual Brent chart:
Posted by: Jeffrey J. Brown at January 18, 2012 12:27 PM
Wot, nothing here about the Canadian oil pipe?
Posted by: KevinM at January 18, 2012 04:05 PM
The FT alphaville article says that the EU trade deficit is growing from 67% due to oil imports to 80%. No wonder they won't back the oil embargo. What the % of the US deficit is due to oil imports?
Posted by: Robert Baertsch at January 19, 2012 04:00 AM
Interesting paper from the IEA on probability forecast in oil and gaz price,implied volatility (variance for expected capital gain priced in the option) is used to determine a confidence interval.The wider the range the higher the probability of price range occurrence.As always the year 2000 supplies an inflexion point to all markets and the oil and gaz markets in particular (please see volume in futures trading graph 3,4 P5).The confidence interval, that is the wider price range assuming no major geopolitical disruption is hovering between 76$ and 109$.IEA http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdf.A steady margin forecast for the refiners P11.
That will provide for a transition to Economics one,whilst the index components are weak since very subjective (please read the supplied references to Hermitage index)
American Economic Freedom: Moving in the Wrong Direction (http://johnbtaylorsblog.blogspot.com/)
That will provide for an easy reference to Merryl Lynch,bank of America article "This crude old eurozone crisis Ft Alphaville"
Who is subsdising whom?
Posted by: ppcm at January 19, 2012 04:15 AM
Thanks for te mention. However my co-blogger New Deal Democrat Performed the ECRI analysis
Posted by: Bonddad at January 19, 2012 09:46 AM