November 30, 2012
What Would Happen
If the Bush tax cuts all lapsed?
November 29, 2012
Some Speculation Regarding Asian-American Voting Patterns in 2012
Noahpinion asks: “[W]hy did Asian-Americans break so strongly for Obama? I provide my (slightly different) answer.
November 28, 2012
I offer some observations on exhaustible resources and economic growth in the latest issue of the UCSD Economics Newsletter.
November 26, 2012
What's Up with Wisconsin Employment?
Civilian employment in Wisconsin is less than it was when Governor Walker took office in January 2011. In contrast, US employment is almost 3% higher.
November 23, 2012
Business Insider has a very nice interview with Bill McBride, in which Bill explains why he is more optimistic about the economy than many others. And yes, the praise of Bill is all well deserved.
November 20, 2012
Guest Contribution: "China’s Transition: Three Scenarios"
Today, we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Phillip Swagel, Professor in International Economic Policy at University of Maryland's School of Public Policy, and formerly Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the Treasury Department (December 2006 to January 2009).
November 18, 2012
Europe in recession
The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the Centre for Economic Policy Research (the European counterpart of the U.S. NBER) last week issued a declaration that Europe entered a new recession a year ago, dating the business cycle peak at 2011:Q3.
November 17, 2012
CBO: "What Accounts for the Slow Growth of the Economy After the Recession?"
"CBO estimates that about two-thirds of the difference between the growth in real GDP in the current recovery and the average for other recoveries can be attributed to sluggish growth in potential GDP."
November 14, 2012
Guest Contribution: Gridlock in Europe
The Rise and Fall of the IMF’s Reputation
Today we are fortunate to have as a guest contributor Joseph Joyce, Professor of Economics at Wellesley College, and author of the new book, The IMF and Global Financial Crises: Phoenix Rising? (Cambridge University Press).
The Republican Joint Economic Committee Does Public Finance
Or, "Just because you can’t prove that the top marginal tax rate has a large impact on economic growth doesn’t mean that it doesn't: just have faith!"
November 13, 2012
2012 World Energy Outlook from the International Energy Agency
The United States is projected to become the largest global oil producer before 2020, exceeding Saudi Arabia until the mid-2020s. At the same time, new fuel-efficiency measures in transport begin to curb US oil demand. The result is a continued fall in US oil imports, to the extent that North America becomes a net oil exporter around 2030.
November 12, 2012
Maximizing GDP Growth with Minimal Budgetary Cost in the Face of the Fiscal Slope/Cliff
We can maintain momentum, while moving toward budget sustainability, by allowing the Bush tax rate cuts for incomes above $250,000 to expire
November 11, 2012
National Research Council: “Climate and Social Stress: Implications for Security Analysis”
”There is compelling reason to presume that specific failures of adaptation [to climate change] will occur with consequences more severe than any yet experienced, severe enough to compel more extensive international engagement than has yet been anticipated or organized.”
November 10, 2012
Links for 2012-11-10
A few links to some items I found of interest.
November 08, 2012
The Fiscal Cliff: International Implications
Most of the discussion has focused on the domestic repercussions of going off the fiscal cliff (or as my former colleague Chad Stone calls it, the “fiscal slope”). I think it important to remember that, as the single largest economy, policy in the US has profound implications for economic developments overseas. This is particularly true with the eurozone still in a fragile state, and China growing (relatively) slowly.
November 07, 2012
President Obama won a second term in office yesterday, receiving 50.3% of the popular vote But the Republicans held control of the House of Representatives and Americans remain deeply divided. Historically, the party in control of the White House loses some congressional seats in the midterm elections. That means that any legislation passed into law over the next two years, and likely the next four years, is going to have to be agreed to by both a Democratic President and a Republican House.
November 05, 2012
The Choice: Math vs. Anti-Math in Fiscal Policy
Over a hundred and fifty years ago, the “Know Nothing Movement” rose to prominence in American politics. The “Know Nothings” were thusly known not because they were ignorant, but because they denied being adherents of a xenophobic, nativist party. But I think this time around, it is appropriate to characterize one group as being a true “Know Nothing” party in the sense that they reject the gifts of the Enlightenment.
November 04, 2012
Going over the fiscal cliff
The "fiscal cliff" refers to a broad set of tax increases and spending cuts that under current U.S. law will take effect in January. A recent assessment by Bank of America Merrill Lynch estimates the tax increases in 2012 could come to $470 B and spending cuts another $250 B, for a combined fiscal shock of $720 B, or 4.6% of GDP.
November 02, 2012
The October Employment Situation: Continued Improvement
Figures 1 and 2 illustrate the improvement in nonfarm payroll and private nonfarm payroll employment, respectively. Figure 3 highlights the fact that total civilian employment and labor force both increased in October. Interestingly, civilian employment growth in October continues that reported for September, the veracity of which some observers had questioned.
November 01, 2012
Bringing the Bubble to the Senate
Or, "Who will rid me of this troublesome study?"
The Employment and GDP Relationship
The latest GDP release gives me the opportunity to re-evaluate whether job creation is less than what would be expected, given the growth in real GDP. At first glance, it seems obvious that growth in employment is less than expected. A simple OLS regression of log private employment on log real GDP over the 1987Q1-2012Q3, which might be implied by a particular form of Okun’s Law.