November 04, 2009
Current economic conditions
The U.S. recovery is underway. But so far it doesn't look as strong as we had been hoping.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 06:14 AM permalink | Comments (20)
October 03, 2009
Not much of a V
The latest auto and employment numbers paint a picture of an economic recovery that remains tepid and potentially fragile.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 10:35 AM permalink | Comments (16)
September 01, 2009
Car sales up, but for how long?
August auto sales provided the strongest signal of an economic rebound that we've seen yet. But August is so yesterday.
Continue reading "Car sales up, but for how long?"
Posted by James Hamilton at 08:08 PM permalink | Comments (30)
August 30, 2009
Econbrowser Emoticon shifts to neutral
| Date | Status |
|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2006 | 
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| Feb 21, 2007 | 
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| Apr 25, 2007 | 
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| Jun 27, 2007 |
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| Oct 5, 2007 |
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| Jan 4, 2008 |
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| Aug 30, 2009 |
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If you've only been following Econbrowser since 2008, you may have thought that the crabby countenance in the upper-right corner of our main page was a permanent fixture, conveying our general grumpiness about the state of the economy or perhaps life in general. Despite having been stuck in the pessimistic mode for quite some time now, the emoticon was in fact always intended to be a dynamic feature, adjusted from time to time to provide readers with our overall impression of incoming data. The table on the left provides links to each occasion that our Little Econ Watcher's countenance has changed in the past.
Last week's data persuaded me to move the Econbrowser Emoticon back into neutral, signifying that I now judge overall output to be growing slowly rather than declining. Here are details on the evidence that prompted this change in assessment, and what it signifies.
Continue reading "Econbrowser Emoticon shifts to neutral"
Posted by James Hamilton at 07:15 AM permalink | Comments (30)
August 15, 2009
Current economic conditions
This was another week when everybody but me sees an economic recovery in the works.
Continue reading "Current economic conditions"
Posted by James Hamilton at 11:01 AM permalink | Comments (44)
August 04, 2009
Current economic conditions
July auto sales might be viewed as the first solid indicator of an improving U.S. economy. But what does it really tell us?
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Posted by James Hamilton at 08:20 PM permalink | Comments (22)
August 02, 2009
Cash for clunkers
A victim of its own success?
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Posted by James Hamilton at 06:47 AM permalink | Comments (82)
July 01, 2009
No rebound for autos
Autos are worth watching as one sector where economic growth could resume first. But despite what others are saying, I don't believe that it's happening yet.
Continue reading "No rebound for autos"
Posted by James Hamilton at 05:25 PM permalink | Comments (9)
June 07, 2009
Not a robust recovery
Often after a sharp economic downturn we observe an equally dramatic recovery. But nobody can claim to be seeing that so far in the currently available data.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 11:14 AM permalink | Comments (42)
May 03, 2009
Auto woes open a new chapter
April sales of light vehicles manufactured in North America were down by about a third from the values seen a year ago. And a year ago we were already seeing recession-level values for auto sales.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 06:46 AM permalink | Comments (24)
April 25, 2009
Oil shocks and recessions
Here I provide some more background on the relation between oil price increases and economic recessions.
Continue reading "Oil shocks and recessions"
Posted by James Hamilton at 07:48 PM permalink | Comments (38)
April 05, 2009
March auto sales
Light vehicles sold in the U.S. last month were down 37% from March 2008, whereas February sales had been 41% below year-earlier values. Does a February-to-March increase and smaller year-over-year drop mean that we've turned the corner?
Continue reading "March auto sales"
Posted by James Hamilton at 06:22 AM permalink | Comments (16)
March 08, 2009
Update on the auto sector
Detroit is still down, and the count begins on whether that means out.
Continue reading "Update on the auto sector"
Posted by James Hamilton at 07:15 AM permalink | Comments (40)
February 03, 2009
January auto sales
Dreadful as 2008 was for the U.S. automakers, 2009 is starting out even worse.
Continue reading "January auto sales"
Posted by James Hamilton at 08:55 PM permalink | Comments (43)
January 06, 2009
December auto sales
On a seasonally adjusted basis, U.S. light vehicle sales remained deeply depressed in December. But at least things don't seem to be any worse than they had been the previous month.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 04:01 PM permalink | Comments (16)
January 02, 2009
The oil shock and recession of 2008: Part 2
In my previous post, I presented evidence that the oil price increase over 2007:H2-2008:H1 made a significant contribution to the slowdown in consumption spending in general and decline in spending on domestic automobiles in particular. Here I discuss why this should be regarded as a key development that turned the slowdown in growth into a recession.
Continue reading "The oil shock and recession of 2008: Part 2"
Posted by James Hamilton at 08:56 PM permalink | Comments (25)
December 31, 2008
The oil shock and recession of 2008: Part 1
This is the first in what I'm planning will be a series of posts discussing the contribution that the energy price spike of 2008 made to our present economic difficulties. In this first installment, I revisit a very interesting research paper on the response of consumer spending to energy price increases written by Lutz Kilian (Professor of Economics at the University of Michigan), and Paul Edelstein (Senior Economist for Decision Economics). I first brought this paper to the attention of Econbrowser readers in the spring of 2007. I thought now would be a good time to take a look at how well the equations in Edelstein and Kilian's paper can describe what we saw happen in the later part of 2007 and first half of 2008.
Continue reading "The oil shock and recession of 2008: Part 1"
Posted by James Hamilton at 10:48 AM permalink | Comments (24)
December 17, 2008
The other shoe begins to drop
Chrysler LLC, awaiting a federal rescue as its cash dwindles, will shut all 30 of its plants for at least a month starting Dec. 19 as unsold cars and trucks pile up at showrooms.
Ford Motor Co. said it will idle most of its North American assembly plants for the first week of January, while General Motors Corp. said a new factory making engines for the Chevrolet Volt electric car is being delayed to conserve cash.
The cutbacks showed how far automakers are going to save money and prune output in a year in which industrywide U.S. sales are poised to fall to their lowest levels since 1991. GM and Chrysler say they may run out of operating funds in just weeks without emergency U.S. aid.
Posted by James Hamilton at 07:56 PM permalink | Comments (20)
December 03, 2008
The auto downturn is very serious
I was running out of vocabulary last month to describe just how bad October was for the domestic automakers. But whatever you want to say about October, November was significantly worse.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 05:39 AM permalink | Comments (50)
November 18, 2008
The check is in the mail
Falling gasoline prices will provide some stimulus to the economy. But how much?
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Posted by James Hamilton at 08:38 PM permalink | Comments (27)
November 03, 2008
Another bad month for autos
To say that the U.S. auto sector continues to bleed may be an understatement. Maybe we should start talking about a severed artery.
Continue reading "Another bad month for autos"
Posted by James Hamilton at 07:31 PM permalink | Comments (32)
October 02, 2008
Auto sales deteriorate further
U.S. auto sales have been dismal for most of this year. And they just took a turn for the worse.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 02:51 AM permalink | Comments (19)
September 29, 2008
Detroit gets in on the action
With all the excitement in financial markets, I almost missed this story on the bailout for automakers.
Continue reading "Detroit gets in on the action"
Posted by James Hamilton at 09:23 PM permalink | Comments (17)
September 06, 2008
A rebound for autos?
August auto sales were less dismal than July. But don't uncork the champagne quite yet.
Continue reading "A rebound for autos?"
Posted by James Hamilton at 11:24 AM permalink | Comments (12)
August 19, 2008
Economic consequences of falling oil prices
I've maintained that rising oil prices put a significant burden on the U.S. economy in recent months. How much will falling oil prices help to alleviate those concerns?
Continue reading "Economic consequences of falling oil prices"
Posted by James Hamilton at 07:58 AM permalink | Comments (12)
August 03, 2008
Oil prices, autos, and the U.S. economy
It's instructive to compare what's currently happening to the auto sector and the U.S. economy with what we saw in the wake of the 1990 oil shock.
Continue reading "Oil prices, autos, and the U.S. economy"
Posted by James Hamilton at 07:17 AM permalink | Comments (21)
July 20, 2008
Quarter 2 may come out OK, but challenges remain
At least that's the assessment of Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco economist John Fernald (hat tip: Mark Thoma).
Continue reading "Quarter 2 may come out OK, but challenges remain"
Posted by James Hamilton at 06:34 AM permalink | Comments (16)
July 02, 2008
Recession and the oil shock of 2008
Unfortunately, this seems to be unfolding according to script.
Continue reading "Recession and the oil shock of 2008"
Posted by James Hamilton at 12:28 PM permalink | Comments (36)
June 05, 2008
The oil shock of 2008
Time to reassess the potential for recent oil price increases to contribute to an economic downturn.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 08:26 PM permalink | Comments (41)
May 05, 2008
Gasoline prices: consumers and politicians respond
The trend is clear: demand is down and complaints are up.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 08:41 PM permalink | Comments (32)
April 02, 2008
Downturn in auto sales continues
Automobile sales do not bode well for first-quarter GDP.
Continue reading "Downturn in auto sales continues"
Posted by James Hamilton at 06:21 AM permalink | Comments (18)
March 04, 2008
It's not just housing any more
Not a good start to the week week for those holding on to hopes that the U.S. will avoid a recession.
Continue reading "It's not just housing any more"
Posted by James Hamilton at 07:50 PM permalink | Comments (11)
February 03, 2008
January auto sales
Detroit continues its slow bleed.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 07:58 AM permalink | Comments (20)
January 06, 2008
Ongoing slump in autos
The weak performance of auto sales continues, with a new twist.
Continue reading "Ongoing slump in autos"
Posted by James Hamilton at 12:05 PM permalink | Comments (22)
December 05, 2007
November auto sales down modestly
Weakness in autos, but it's not as bad as it could be.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 06:05 AM permalink | Comments (4)
November 06, 2007
Well then, would $100 a barrel worry you?
A week ago I reviewed the reasons why $90-a-barrel oil by itself would not be enough to cause an economic recession. As oil prices charged up to $96 on Friday, a reporter asked me at what price I'd change my mind.
Continue reading "Well then, would $100 a barrel worry you?"
Posted by James Hamilton at 04:22 AM permalink | Comments (48)
October 03, 2007
Not all the news is bad
We've been dwelling here quite a bit on the bleak incoming housing data. But I have to admit that I'm not seeing that spilling over so far into some of the other key economic indicators.
Continue reading "Not all the news is bad"
Posted by James Hamilton at 06:32 AM permalink | Comments (21)
September 05, 2007
August auto sales
August light-vehicle sales give us an early indication of how the real side of the economy is holding up under the financial turmoil that began August 9. And the results are not too bad, considering.
Continue reading "August auto sales"
Posted by James Hamilton at 04:34 PM permalink | Comments (11)
August 01, 2007
July auto sales
This is not just another bad sales month.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 11:19 PM permalink | Comments (21)
July 04, 2007
June auto sales
Not a good month for the domestic automakers.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 07:42 AM permalink | Comments (17)
June 02, 2007
Auto sales improve in May
Yet another one of my chief worries gets some relief from new data.
Continue reading "Auto sales improve in May"
Posted by James Hamilton at 06:15 AM permalink | Comments (11)
May 17, 2007
New study of the effects of oil price shocks on the economy
University of Michigan Professor Lutz Kilian, whose research we've often highlighted here ([1], [2]), and Michigan Ph.D. candidate Paul Edelstein have an interesting new paper on how energy price changes affect the economy.
Continue reading "New study of the effects of oil price shocks on the economy"
Posted by James Hamilton at 07:44 PM permalink | Comments (39)
May 03, 2007
Auto sales down in April
The number of new cars and light trucks sold in America was down nearly 8% in April relative to the previous year. That's a significant deterioration of the recent downward trend, but not yet a catastrophic plunge.
Continue reading "Auto sales down in April"
Posted by James Hamilton at 07:05 PM permalink | Comments (8)
March 03, 2007
CAFE standards
Featuring prominently in the new energy plan from President Bush is a call for changes in the corporate average fuel efficiency (CAFE) standards that the Administration claims could reduce U.S. gasoline consumption by 5% over the next 10 years. Here are some of the reasons I'm not thrilled by that suggestion.
Continue reading "CAFE standards"
Posted by James Hamilton at 11:50 AM permalink | Comments (62)
February 21, 2007
Worrisome data on industrial production
Overshadowed by the euphoria over Bernanke's testimony last week was news that the Federal Reserve Board's index of industrial production fell one-half percent in January.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 05:29 AM permalink | Comments (18)
February 01, 2007
GM and Ford down, Toyota and Nissan up
Stop me if you think you've heard this one before.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 09:25 PM permalink | Comments (21)
January 03, 2007
December auto sales
Auto sales data released today look just great, as long as your name is Toyota.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 04:48 PM permalink | Comments (16)
December 06, 2006
November auto sales
November U.S. light vehicle sales were 2.8% higher than last year. Sounds good, until you take a closer look.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 07:36 AM permalink | Comments (10)
September 04, 2006
Autos remain weak
Auto sales still a weak spot for the economy, but no big plunge yet.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 08:37 AM permalink | Comments (4)
August 03, 2006
Autos again taking a hit
The Big 3 U.S. automakers continue to get a little less big.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 05:47 AM permalink | Comments (12)
July 11, 2006
China roars into the automotive era
Guess who's now the second-biggest market for new cars in the world?
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Posted by James Hamilton at 08:12 PM permalink | Comments (13)
June 03, 2006
Indications of slower growth
This week's data paint a picture of slowing growth.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 09:26 AM permalink | Comments (15)
April 28, 2006
Strong first-quarter GDP growth
The expected strong 2006:Q1 GDP growth included encouraging numbers for investment and exports, and warranted a slight drop in the recession probability index.
Continue reading "Strong first-quarter GDP growth"
Posted by James Hamilton at 10:24 AM permalink | Comments (8)
April 24, 2006
Who's afraid of $3 gasoline?
Does the expected strong 2006:Q1 GDP report mean that the economy will shrug off the recent resurgence of gas prices?
Continue reading "Who's afraid of $3 gasoline?"
Posted by James Hamilton at 12:33 PM permalink | Comments (19)
March 03, 2006
Autos limp forward
Could be better, could be worse.
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Posted by James Hamilton at 05:15 AM permalink | Comments (4)
January 29, 2006
Autos and the U.S. economy
A number of analysts have suggested that autos play a much less significant role in the U.S. economy today than they have historically. The data from 2005 would seem to call that conclusion into question.
Continue reading "Autos and the U.S. economy"
Posted by James Hamilton at 12:15 PM permalink | Comments (55)
January 05, 2006
2005: the oil shock that didn't bite?
All but one of the recessions in the United States since World War II have been preceded by a dramatic increase in oil prices. Did we escape unscathed in 2005?
Continue reading "2005: the oil shock that didn't bite?"
Posted by James Hamilton at 02:40 PM permalink | Comments (34)
November 30, 2005
Facing the latest economic data
Here are a few thoughts about some of the economic news that's been coming in over the last few weeks.
Continue reading "Facing the latest economic data"
Posted by James Hamilton at 05:54 AM permalink | Comments (15)
November 07, 2005
Gasoline prices down
Gas prices have dropped a lot, and further declines are in sight. What's that mean for fuel demand and the overall economy?
Continue reading "Gasoline prices down"
Posted by James Hamilton at 04:36 PM permalink | Comments (22)
October 23, 2005
Ford joins the club
Having commented on a number of occasions about General Motors' woes, and striving to be an Equal Opportunity PunditTM, it's only fair to give credit where credit is due. Ford this week showed that it can compete with the best of them in terms of losing money, posting a loss on its North American operations of $1.2 billion for the third quarter and $2.4 billion over the last 15 months. I'm not sure what advice to give Ford. But here's what I think we might expect from U.S. policy makers.
Continue reading "Ford joins the club"
Posted by James Hamilton at 05:59 PM permalink | Comments (52)
October 18, 2005
GM losses and other economic news
No matter how amazing your accomplishments, it's always nice to try to set your goals even higher. I was pretty impressed when General Motors managed to lose $1.2 billion on its North American operations in the second quarter of this year. But yesterday GM announced it had outdone even this, losing $1.6 billion on its North American operations in the third quarter.
Continue reading "GM losses and other economic news"
Posted by James Hamilton at 09:28 AM permalink | Comments (41)
October 03, 2005
What's good for GM...
U.S. automakers can't be very pleased about September sales figures.
Continue reading "What's good for GM..."
Posted by James Hamilton at 08:04 PM permalink | Comments (128)