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January 06, 2009

December auto sales

On a seasonally adjusted basis, U.S. light vehicle sales remained deeply depressed in December. But at least things don't seem to be any worse than they had been the previous month.

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Posted by James Hamilton at 04:01 PM permalink | Comments (10)

January 02, 2009

The oil shock and recession of 2008: Part 2

In my previous post, I presented evidence that the oil price increase over 2007:H2-2008:H1 made a significant contribution to the slowdown in consumption spending in general and decline in spending on domestic automobiles in particular. Here I discuss why this should be regarded as a key development that turned the slowdown in growth into a recession.

Continue reading "The oil shock and recession of 2008: Part 2"

Posted by James Hamilton at 08:56 PM permalink | Comments (20)

December 31, 2008

The oil shock and recession of 2008: Part 1

This is the first in what I'm planning will be a series of posts discussing the contribution that the energy price spike of 2008 made to our present economic difficulties. In this first installment, I revisit a very interesting research paper on the response of consumer spending to energy price increases written by Lutz Kilian (Professor of Economics at the University of Michigan), and Paul Edelstein (Senior Economist for Decision Economics). I first brought this paper to the attention of Econbrowser readers in the spring of 2007. I thought now would be a good time to take a look at how well the equations in Edelstein and Kilian's paper can describe what we saw happen in the later part of 2007 and first half of 2008.

Continue reading "The oil shock and recession of 2008: Part 1"

Posted by James Hamilton at 10:48 AM permalink | Comments (23)

December 17, 2008

The other shoe begins to drop

Bloomberg reports:

Chrysler LLC, awaiting a federal rescue as its cash dwindles, will shut all 30 of its plants for at least a month starting Dec. 19 as unsold cars and trucks pile up at showrooms.

Ford Motor Co. said it will idle most of its North American assembly plants for the first week of January, while General Motors Corp. said a new factory making engines for the Chevrolet Volt electric car is being delayed to conserve cash.

The cutbacks showed how far automakers are going to save money and prune output in a year in which industrywide U.S. sales are poised to fall to their lowest levels since 1991. GM and Chrysler say they may run out of operating funds in just weeks without emergency U.S. aid.

Posted by James Hamilton at 07:56 PM permalink | Comments (20)

December 03, 2008

The auto downturn is very serious

I was running out of vocabulary last month to describe just how bad October was for the domestic automakers. But whatever you want to say about October, November was significantly worse.

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Posted by James Hamilton at 05:39 AM permalink | Comments (50)

November 18, 2008

The check is in the mail

Falling gasoline prices will provide some stimulus to the economy. But how much?

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Posted by James Hamilton at 08:38 PM permalink | Comments (26)

November 03, 2008

Another bad month for autos

To say that the U.S. auto sector continues to bleed may be an understatement. Maybe we should start talking about a severed artery.

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Posted by James Hamilton at 07:31 PM permalink | Comments (32)

October 02, 2008

Auto sales deteriorate further

U.S. auto sales have been dismal for most of this year. And they just took a turn for the worse.

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Posted by James Hamilton at 02:51 AM permalink | Comments (19)

September 29, 2008

Detroit gets in on the action

With all the excitement in financial markets, I almost missed this story on the bailout for automakers.

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Posted by James Hamilton at 09:23 PM permalink | Comments (17)

September 06, 2008

A rebound for autos?

August auto sales were less dismal than July. But don't uncork the champagne quite yet.

Continue reading "A rebound for autos?"

Posted by James Hamilton at 11:24 AM permalink | Comments (12)

August 19, 2008

Economic consequences of falling oil prices

I've maintained that rising oil prices put a significant burden on the U.S. economy in recent months. How much will falling oil prices help to alleviate those concerns?

Continue reading "Economic consequences of falling oil prices"

Posted by James Hamilton at 07:58 AM permalink | Comments (12)

August 03, 2008

Oil prices, autos, and the U.S. economy

It's instructive to compare what's currently happening to the auto sector and the U.S. economy with what we saw in the wake of the 1990 oil shock.

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Posted by James Hamilton at 07:17 AM permalink | Comments (21)

July 20, 2008

Quarter 2 may come out OK, but challenges remain

At least that's the assessment of Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco economist John Fernald (hat tip: Mark Thoma).

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Posted by James Hamilton at 06:34 AM permalink | Comments (16)

July 02, 2008

Recession and the oil shock of 2008

Unfortunately, this seems to be unfolding according to script.

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Posted by James Hamilton at 12:28 PM permalink | Comments (36)

June 05, 2008

The oil shock of 2008

Time to reassess the potential for recent oil price increases to contribute to an economic downturn.

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Posted by James Hamilton at 08:26 PM permalink | Comments (41)

May 05, 2008

Gasoline prices: consumers and politicians respond

The trend is clear: demand is down and complaints are up.

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Posted by James Hamilton at 08:41 PM permalink | Comments (32)

April 02, 2008

Downturn in auto sales continues

Automobile sales do not bode well for first-quarter GDP.

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Posted by James Hamilton at 06:21 AM permalink | Comments (18)

March 04, 2008

It's not just housing any more

Not a good start to the week week for those holding on to hopes that the U.S. will avoid a recession.

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Posted by James Hamilton at 07:50 PM permalink | Comments (11)

February 03, 2008

January auto sales

Detroit continues its slow bleed.

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Posted by James Hamilton at 07:58 AM permalink | Comments (20)

January 06, 2008

Ongoing slump in autos

The weak performance of auto sales continues, with a new twist.

Continue reading "Ongoing slump in autos"

Posted by James Hamilton at 12:05 PM permalink | Comments (22)

December 05, 2007

November auto sales down modestly

Weakness in autos, but it's not as bad as it could be.

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Posted by James Hamilton at 06:05 AM permalink | Comments (4)

November 06, 2007

Well then, would $100 a barrel worry you?

A week ago I reviewed the reasons why $90-a-barrel oil by itself would not be enough to cause an economic recession. As oil prices charged up to $96 on Friday, a reporter asked me at what price I'd change my mind.

Continue reading "Well then, would $100 a barrel worry you?"

Posted by James Hamilton at 04:22 AM permalink | Comments (48)

October 03, 2007

Not all the news is bad

We've been dwelling here quite a bit on the bleak incoming housing data. But I have to admit that I'm not seeing that spilling over so far into some of the other key economic indicators.

Continue reading "Not all the news is bad"

Posted by James Hamilton at 06:32 AM permalink | Comments (21)

September 05, 2007

August auto sales

August light-vehicle sales give us an early indication of how the real side of the economy is holding up under the financial turmoil that began August 9. And the results are not too bad, considering.

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Posted by James Hamilton at 04:34 PM permalink | Comments (11)

August 01, 2007

July auto sales

This is not just another bad sales month.

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Posted by James Hamilton at 11:19 PM permalink | Comments (21)

July 04, 2007

June auto sales

Not a good month for the domestic automakers.

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Posted by James Hamilton at 07:42 AM permalink | Comments (17)

June 02, 2007

Auto sales improve in May

Yet another one of my chief worries gets some relief from new data.

Continue reading "Auto sales improve in May"

Posted by James Hamilton at 06:15 AM permalink | Comments (11)

May 17, 2007

New study of the effects of oil price shocks on the economy

University of Michigan Professor Lutz Kilian, whose research we've often highlighted here ([1], [2]), and Michigan Ph.D. candidate Paul Edelstein have an interesting new paper on how energy price changes affect the economy.

Continue reading "New study of the effects of oil price shocks on the economy"

Posted by James Hamilton at 07:44 PM permalink | Comments (39)

May 03, 2007

Auto sales down in April

The number of new cars and light trucks sold in America was down nearly 8% in April relative to the previous year. That's a significant deterioration of the recent downward trend, but not yet a catastrophic plunge.

Continue reading "Auto sales down in April"

Posted by James Hamilton at 07:05 PM permalink | Comments (8)

March 03, 2007

CAFE standards

Featuring prominently in the new energy plan from President Bush is a call for changes in the corporate average fuel efficiency (CAFE) standards that the Administration claims could reduce U.S. gasoline consumption by 5% over the next 10 years. Here are some of the reasons I'm not thrilled by that suggestion.

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Posted by James Hamilton at 11:50 AM permalink | Comments (62)

February 21, 2007

Worrisome data on industrial production

Overshadowed by the euphoria over Bernanke's testimony last week was news that the Federal Reserve Board's index of industrial production fell one-half percent in January.

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Posted by James Hamilton at 05:29 AM permalink | Comments (18)

February 01, 2007

GM and Ford down, Toyota and Nissan up

Stop me if you think you've heard this one before.

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Posted by James Hamilton at 09:25 PM permalink | Comments (21)

January 03, 2007

December auto sales

Auto sales data released today look just great, as long as your name is Toyota.

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Posted by James Hamilton at 04:48 PM permalink | Comments (16)

December 06, 2006

November auto sales

November U.S. light vehicle sales were 2.8% higher than last year. Sounds good, until you take a closer look.

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Posted by James Hamilton at 07:36 AM permalink | Comments (10)

September 04, 2006

Autos remain weak

Auto sales still a weak spot for the economy, but no big plunge yet.

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Posted by James Hamilton at 08:37 AM permalink | Comments (4)

August 03, 2006

Autos again taking a hit

The Big 3 U.S. automakers continue to get a little less big.

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Posted by James Hamilton at 05:47 AM permalink | Comments (12)

July 11, 2006

China roars into the automotive era

Guess who's now the second-biggest market for new cars in the world?

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Posted by James Hamilton at 08:12 PM permalink | Comments (13)

June 03, 2006

Indications of slower growth

This week's data paint a picture of slowing growth.

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Posted by James Hamilton at 09:26 AM permalink | Comments (15)

April 28, 2006

Strong first-quarter GDP growth

The expected strong 2006:Q1 GDP growth included encouraging numbers for investment and exports, and warranted a slight drop in the recession probability index.

Continue reading "Strong first-quarter GDP growth"

Posted by James Hamilton at 10:24 AM permalink | Comments (8)

April 24, 2006

Who's afraid of $3 gasoline?

Does the expected strong 2006:Q1 GDP report mean that the economy will shrug off the recent resurgence of gas prices?

Continue reading "Who's afraid of $3 gasoline?"

Posted by James Hamilton at 12:33 PM permalink | Comments (19)

March 03, 2006

Autos limp forward

Could be better, could be worse.

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Posted by James Hamilton at 05:15 AM permalink | Comments (4)

January 29, 2006

Autos and the U.S. economy

A number of analysts have suggested that autos play a much less significant role in the U.S. economy today than they have historically. The data from 2005 would seem to call that conclusion into question.

Continue reading "Autos and the U.S. economy"

Posted by James Hamilton at 12:15 PM permalink | Comments (55)

January 05, 2006

2005: the oil shock that didn't bite?

All but one of the recessions in the United States since World War II have been preceded by a dramatic increase in oil prices. Did we escape unscathed in 2005?

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Posted by James Hamilton at 02:40 PM permalink | Comments (34)

November 30, 2005

Facing the latest economic data

Here are a few thoughts about some of the economic news that's been coming in over the last few weeks.

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Posted by James Hamilton at 05:54 AM permalink | Comments (15)

November 07, 2005

Gasoline prices down

Gas prices have dropped a lot, and further declines are in sight. What's that mean for fuel demand and the overall economy?

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Posted by James Hamilton at 04:36 PM permalink | Comments (22)

October 23, 2005

Ford joins the club

Having commented on a number of occasions about General Motors' woes, and striving to be an Equal Opportunity PunditTM, it's only fair to give credit where credit is due. Ford this week showed that it can compete with the best of them in terms of losing money, posting a loss on its North American operations of $1.2 billion for the third quarter and $2.4 billion over the last 15 months. I'm not sure what advice to give Ford. But here's what I think we might expect from U.S. policy makers.

Continue reading "Ford joins the club"

Posted by James Hamilton at 05:59 PM permalink | Comments (52)

October 18, 2005

GM losses and other economic news

No matter how amazing your accomplishments, it's always nice to try to set your goals even higher. I was pretty impressed when General Motors managed to lose $1.2 billion on its North American operations in the second quarter of this year. But yesterday GM announced it had outdone even this, losing $1.6 billion on its North American operations in the third quarter.

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Posted by James Hamilton at 09:28 AM permalink | Comments (41)

October 03, 2005

What's good for GM...

U.S. automakers can't be very pleased about September sales figures.

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Posted by James Hamilton at 08:04 PM permalink | Comments (128)