December 04, 2013
Trade Financing Use of China's Yuan
China's yuan currency overtook the euro in October, becoming the second-most used currency in trade finance, global transaction services organization SWIFT said on Tuesday.
November 08, 2013
China, Development, and the US-China Economic Relationship
I'm here today:
October 21, 2013
American Debt, Chinese Anxiety, Elaborated
Or, how the Tea Party is working hard to sabotage the dollar's role in global finance.
July 25, 2013
Worries about China
Paul Krugman is among those starting to be concerned about an economic downturn in China. Here are my thoughts on this issue.
July 23, 2013
Some Thoughts on Recent Chinese GDP Growth
It’s an understatement to say there has been a lot of dismay at the drop in Chinese year-on-year GDP growth, from 7.7% to 7.5%. Figure 1 below, from the IMF’s Article IV report released on July 17, shows data only through 2013Q1, although the forecast for 2013Q2 looks about right to me.
July 05, 2013
How Competitive Is China?
Newly developed indicators suggest eroding international competitiveness.
June 30, 2013
The all-powerful Fed
The conventional wisdom is that the big jump in interest rates since the beginning of May is the result of a poorly conceived or poorly communicated shift in policy by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The conventional wisdom is wrong.
June 22, 2013
The end of low interest rates
The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury securities averaged 1.8% during 2012, the lowest levels in 60 years. But that episode may now be behind us.
May 09, 2013
Guest Contribution: "Addressing China’s macroeconomic imbalances through sectorial reforms"
November 20, 2012
Guest Contribution: "China’s Transition: Three Scenarios"
Today, we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Phillip Swagel, Professor in International Economic Policy at University of Maryland's School of Public Policy, and formerly Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the Treasury Department (December 2006 to January 2009).
October 25, 2012
Why Governor Romney’s Threat on the Chinese Currency Matters
Maybe. Governor Romney has stated that he will declare China a currency manipulator on Day One, should he be elected President. In contrast to his other policy positions – from tax rates on the upper incomes, defense spending, coverage of pre-existing health conditions, the Blunt Amendment, Afghanistan timetable, first strike on Iran – he has exhibited remarkable (and pretty unique) constancy in his desire to call China a currency manipulator. In fact, one can find news reports from 2007 onward attesting to this long-standing stance , , ; so if there is any promise we should believe he will follow through on, it’s this one. And from Believe In America: Mitt Romney's Plan for Jobs and Economic Growth (under "Day One"), it is:
October 16, 2012
Against a Sea of Enemies: China as Currency Manipulator
One of the interesting things about the presidential debate tonight was the prominence of China. Governor Romney repeated his insistence that he would declare China a currency manipulator "on day one". (I am surprised he didn't mention the "yellow peril".) If his criterion is forex intervention, he should be prepared to declare many other countries manipulators as well.
China and the Middle Income Trap
Fated to a big trend slowdown?
September 26, 2012
China's economic slowdown
As Niels Bohr (and others) observed, prediction is difficult, especially about the future. But if the challenge is predicting the number of 20-year-olds 5 years from now, you can get a pretty darn good start if you know the number of 15-year-olds right now.
September 11, 2012
China’s Trade Surplus
The August numbers are in. From MarketWatch:
China posted a wider-than-expected trade surplus in August as imports unexpectedly contracted from the year-ago period, suggesting anemic domestic demand, according to data released Monday.
July 17, 2012
Recent economic reports from China are, at the least, mixed. The responses to Friday’s GDP report are illustrative.
May 31, 2012
China and the Impending Global Slowdown
Even before the newest portents of a slowdown,  it was clear that 2012 gains in world output were going to be highly reliant on Chinese growth. Figure 1 shows that the Eurozone switches to a net drag on world growth. China’s contribution is thus a much larger share of total world growth.
April 11, 2012
Managing strategic petroleum reserves
The Wall Street Journal suggests today that part of the latest surge in China's oil imports is attributable to a desire to boost the country's oil stockpiles.
January 12, 2012
China: Inflation and Exchange Rate Watch
Chinese inflation is decelerating . This suggests that whatever further real CNY appreciation occurs is likely arise from nominal appreciation, over the near term.
December 14, 2011
"Are Chinese Trade Flows Different?"
The answer is no, and yes.
We find that Chinese trade flows respond to economic activity and relative prices -- as represented by a trade weighted exchange rate -- but the relationships are not always precisely or robustly estimated. Chinese exports are generally well-behaved, rising with foreign GDP and decreasing as the Chinese renminbi (RMB) appreciates....
November 03, 2011
"Lurking in the Shadows..."
"...the Risks from Nonbank Intermediation in China," by Nigel Chalk in IMFDirect.
Many China-watchers looked on in awe in 2009 as the government’s response to the global financial crisis unfolded, causing bank lending as a share of the economy to expand by close to 20 percentage points in less than a year. ...
October 10, 2011
On China: Global Impact, Domestic Costs, Hard Landing, and the RMB As an International Currency
A new book on China (and Asia) in the global economy, the costs of the Chinese currency regime, the prospects for a Chinese hard landing, and can China save the day if the US and euro area go into recession. Plus, the prospects for the RMB as a key international currency.
October 06, 2011
Yuan Appreciation: Do Chinese Trade Flows Behave Differently? (I)
China is in the news; or more accurately, the Chinese currency, is. From Reuters:
A sharp rise in China's yuan currency might cut the U.S. trade deficit by as much as one third and create enough American jobs to put at least a modest dent in the unemployment rate.
Then again, it may also lead to a destabilizing spike in Chinese unemployment and spark a trade war that drags the global economy back into a deep recession.
June 24, 2011
Or more on China-U.S. exchange rate pass through
Tuesday's Wall Street Journal illustrated the conflicted nature of American views regarding real yuan appreciation. The front page article by Hilsenrath, Burkitt and Holmes argued "Change in China Hits U.S. Purse". On the back page of the C section was a countering article, "No appreciation for the rising yuan", by Orlik, that noted the moderate impact on prices of imported goods from China.
June 12, 2011
Chinese oil demand
Stuart Staniford notes that the number of trucks and passenger vehicles in China has been growing at about 23% each year.
May 10, 2011
China's Currency and Trade Balance: Two Pictures
The US-China Strategic and Economic Dialog is underway.  The topics span many issues. One of the perennials is the yuan's real value and the Chinese trade balance. Here are two figures.
May 08, 2011
Lower oil prices
Like a roller coaster ride, 2011 saw oil prices climb gradually, only to fall dramatically this last week. Here I offer my thoughts on some of the key contributing factors.
April 21, 2011
Chinese Inflation and the Impact on the US Economy
The portents from China, on the price front, are ominous. Inflation is rising, as shown in Figure 1:
April 04, 2011
Gains and Losses from Trade with China
From the conclusion to a provocative paper by David Autor, David Dorn, and Gordon Hanson, entitled The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States:
our study suggests that the rapid increase in U.S. imports of Chinese goods during the past two decades has had a substantial impact on employment and household incomes, benefits program enrollments, and transfer payments in local labor markets exposed to increased import competition. These effects extend far outside the manufacturing sector, and they imply substantial changes in worker and household welfare.
February 20, 2011
New indications of inflation
Where are the inflationary pressures?
January 27, 2011
Chinese Exchange Rate Pass-Through
Jian Wang had an interesting article on the Chinese rebalancing issue, and how renminbi revaluation would fit in. One point he raised pertained to exchange rate pass through. That inspired me to check the literature on this subject.
January 20, 2011
The Yuan, the Chinese Trade Balance and the US, Again
...through the Lens of Multiple Regression
November 30, 2010
Europe and China: is this deja vu all over again?
The autumn of 2010 is in some ways a replay of what we saw last spring. Is what we saw then a guide to what's going to happen next?
November 08, 2010
East Asian Exchange Rates and China’s Trade Surplus
By Willem Thorbecke
Today, we're fortunate to have Willem Thorbecke, Senior Research Fellow at Asian Development Bank Institute, and consulting fellow at Japan's Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) as a guest contributor. The views expressed represent those of the author himself, and do not necessarily represent those of ADBI, RIETI, or any other institutions the author is affiliated with.
October 11, 2010
"Transforming China's Economic Development Model"
September 25, 2010
Back of the Envelope Estimates of Chinese Trade Elasticities
And pitfalls in partial equilibrium analyses
Following up on my previous post, I want to examine what would happen if the Chinese yuan appreciated in real terms, either because of nominal appreciation, or because of more rapid inflation in China versus its trade partners. Here are some back of the envelope estimates.
September 24, 2010
The Yuan's Course, Updated and Extended
September 16, 2010
The Yuan's Course
July 28, 2010
Conference: China in the Global Economy
Recently, I had the pleasure of participating in a CES-ifo workshop on "The Evolving Role of China in the Global Economy," co-organized by Yin-Wong Cheung and Jakob de Haan. The conference agenda is here. The paper topics spanned issues ranging from monetary independence and integration into global financial markets, SOE access to credit and SOE efficiency, Chinese saving/consumption behavior, econometric models of China-global interactions, and the determinants of Chinese FDI in the rest-of-the-world.
July 21, 2010
China land prices
Tell me if you think this story sounds familiar.
June 28, 2010
From Arthur Kroeber, in China Economic Quarterly "Economic rebalancing -- Twin peaks: fiscal and financial reform" [not online]:
June 23, 2010
Links for 2010-06-23
Tim Duy thinks the fanfare about a new Chinese currency policy is overdone:
The PR overload suggests the Administration is desperately in need of a "win," no matter how trivial.... While China appears willing to adjust the parity rate, changes are likely to be more window dressing than anything else. The industrial base shifted from the US to China over the past twenty years, a transition aided by the Clinton Administration's commitment to a strong dollar, and it is not going to come rushing back for a few percentage points of currency value. The structural shift has happened, and it won't reverse easily.
When Bill McBride says he expects house prices to decline, I pay attention:
When months-of-supply is below 6 months, house prices are typically rising-- and above 6 months-of-supply, house prices are usually falling.... We are much closer to the price bottom now than in 2008, and I don't expect that severe of a price decline. But I do expect house prices to fall in the 2nd half of 2010 and into 2011-- probably another 5% to 10% for the major house price indexes (Case-Shiller and CoreLogic).
A federal judge overturned the moratorium on new deepwater offshore drilling:
"An invalid agency decision to suspend drilling of wells in depths of over 500 feet simply cannot justify the immeasurable effect on the plaintiffs, the local economy, the Gulf region, and the critical present-day aspect of the availability of domestic energy in this country," [U.S. District Judge Martin] Feldman wrote....
The temporary injunction by [Judge] Feldman appears unlikely to bring a swift resumption of deepwater drilling: Oil companies say they're reluctant to start new ventures as an uncertain appeals process unfolds.
May 29, 2010
It's not just Europe
I see many financial commentators bravely trying to explain recent ups and downs in asset and commodity prices in terms of news coming out of Europe. But a Eurocentric perspective misses an important part of the story.
April 26, 2010
China and Latin America: Re-evaluating Macro Linkages
Last week, I attended a conference organized by Eduardo Fernandez-Arias and Alessandro Rebucci at the Inter-American Development Bank. One of the panels focused on the impact of China on Latin America's economy.
April 16, 2010
Recent estimates of Chinese Yuan misalignment
Yin-Wong Cheung, Eiji Fujii and I have just written a chapter for a VoxEU book The US-Sino Currency Dispute edited by Simon Evenett (link to blog post). After discussing the various approaches to measuring misalignment, we summarize the most recent estimates of CNY undervaluation.
April 11, 2010
A Chinese Trade Deficit?
China's $7.24 billion deficit in March, the first time the trade balance has been in the red since April 2004, mainly reflected strong imports of oil, raw materials and cars, the General Administration of Customs said on Saturday.
March 23, 2010
A Misalignment Primer
As the release of the next Treasury Report to Congress on International Economic and Exchange Rate Policies looms, it might be useful to recount the various ways in which different observers define currency "misalignment".
March 11, 2010
Whither the Yuan?
Political pressure seems to be mounting for yuan appreciation.  Figure 1 depicts the stability in the USD/CNY nominal exchange rate over the past year.
February 07, 2010
Reactions to last week's economic data
Here I offer some thoughts on last week's numbers for employment, auto sales, and commodity prices.
February 02, 2010
Commodity inflation update
The view I have been forming of near-term inflationary pressures is that we're seeing two very different dynamics in play, with the dollar prices of things the Chinese can stockpile and import going up and the dollar prices of everything else (like U.S. wages and rents) under significant downward pressure. The last week seemed to bring some reprieve on the first front.
January 25, 2010
Chinese Trade Elasticities, Updated
The price and income elasticities of Chinese trade flows are key parameters in the debate regarding the importance of Renminbi revaluation in achieving rebalancing.  I was hoping to update my estimates to incorporate data spanning the recent crisis, but Shaghil Ahmed at the Fed beat me to the punch with a new working paper that includes data spanning the recent downturn in Chinese trade flows. From Are Chinese Exports Sensitive to Changes in the Exchange Rate?
January 03, 2010
Inflation in China
Why hasn't inflation caught up with a monetary-induced boom in China?
December 02, 2009
Recent indictors continue to support the impression that we're in the midst of a weak economic recovery.
November 19, 2009
China, the Renminbi, and Global Imbalances: A Quantitative View
October 26, 2009
The National Saving Identity: Private Saving, Household Saving, and Rebalancing
The National Saving Identity states:
CA ≡ (T-G) + (S-I)
Where CA is the current account, (T-G) is the consolidated government budget balance, and (S-I) is the private sector saving-investment balance. Figure 1 depicts the profound shifts that have occurred in these components (normalized by nominal GDP).
August 05, 2009
China's Impact on the Global Economy: A Symposium
As attested to by the large amount of coverage of the recent US-China Strategic and Economic Dialog  , , , , China looms large in any discussion of the world economy. One of the most important contributors to the informed discussion on this subject was Brad Setser, at the Council on Foreign Affairs and before that at RGE Monitor. Unfortunately, Dr. Setser will be leaving the blogosphere, so his insights will be missed (although fortunately for us, he'll be adding his input at the NEC, where we all wish him well).
So now, there'll be even a greater need for reasoned analysis. One addition to the discussion is a Symposium on China's impact on the global economy just published in Pacific Economic Review (August 2009). From my introductory chapter to the symposium:
Over the past decade, China's presence in the global economy has grown increasingly large. Along many dimensions, China is, rightly or wrongly, perceived to have an enormous impact. In the trade arena, China is now widely considered to be the world's workshop, displacing some traditional exporters of labour-intensive goods, even as its economy is ever more closely woven into the fabric of the increasingly fragmented chain of production....
July 27, 2009
Three Pictures: China's Exchange Rate and Trade Balances
There's plenty of commentary on the ongoing China-US Strategic and Economic Dialog, from the Economist , Reuters , , and Bloomberg  . Here are three pictures to place some of the issues in perspective.
My first observation is while the nominal USD/CNY had stabilized in recent months, the exchange rate that matters most for global imbalances, the Chinese real trade weighted CNY, has moved around a bit, as the dollar has appreciated and depreciated.
June 22, 2009
The Global Saving Glut: Rest in Peace? Mirage? Bete noir?
I've just come back from two weeks on the road, during which time I attended a couple of conferences. The first conference (NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics) dealt with issues of exchange rates, reserve accumulation and financial crises (more on that later). The second one, a joint Bank of Canada-ECB workshop (not online), focused on exchange rates in the global economy. At the latter, Jeff Frankel delivered the keynote speech, entitled "On Global Currency Issues", in which he outlined what's "out" and what's "in" in international finance (Powerpoint presentation here). One of the phenomena he concluded was no longer relevant was "the global saving glut".
June 14, 2009
Do you see what I see?
I'm still looking for, and still not seeing, the economic recovery that everybody is talking about.
June 10, 2009
How Important Is China to World Growth?
This is a tough question to answer. But I can provide an answer of a mechanical sort. Consider how big the Chinese economy is, compared against the US, the Euro area and Japan.
March 12, 2009
Chinese Exports: "no hope"
From Bloomberg two days ago:
..."There's no hope for export demand to recover any time soon," said Wang Qian, a Hong Kong-based economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. "How fast imports recover depends on how soon the government's stimulus package kicks in and creates real demand in major industries."
January 21, 2009
Chinese Growth Plunges
Jan. 22 -- China's economy expanded at the slowest pace in seven years as the global recession dragged down exports, increasing pressure for more government spending and lower interest rates to buoy growth.
Gross domestic product grew 6.8 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, after a 9 percent gain in the previous three months, the statistics bureau said in Beijing today. The figure matched the median estimate of 12 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
December 11, 2008
Incipient Chinese Yuan Depreciation in Context
Plenty of breathless commentary on how Chinese yuan depreciation against the dollar might trigger conflict. From Barrons:
Reality Check for China
By LESLIE P. NORTON
The currency's decline could dampen foreign speculators' enthusiasm
Last week, China's currency, the renminbi, juddered to its biggest one-day decline against the greenback since Beijing began a managed float in 2005.
Says Win Thin, a currency economist at Brown Brothers Harriman: "The prospect of appreciation is off the table for now." Morgan Stanley now expects China to depreciate its currency by 5% to 10% in the coming year. The current rate is 6.88 to the dollar.
November 09, 2008
China Announces 4 Trillion Yuan Economic Stimulus (Update2)
By Li Yanping and Chia-Peck Wong
Nov. 9 (Bloomberg) -- China announced a 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus plan to spur expansion in the world's fourth-largest economy, helping sustain global growth as the U.S., Europe and Japan teeter on the brink of recession.
The funds, equivalent to almost a fifth of China's $3.3 trillion gross domestic product last year, will be used by the end of 2010, the Beijing-based State Council said today on its Web site. China will adopt a "pro-active fiscal policy" and pursue a "moderately loose" monetary policy, it said.
October 23, 2008
Middle Kingdom Malaise? The Latest Chinese GDP Figures
Monday's announcement that Chinese growth was decelerating was not surprising; that it decelerated to below the consensus of 9.7% growth to 9% (y/y) in 2008Q3 was a surprise. This was reflected in the headlines: "China growth rate slows sharply" (FT), "China less likely to buffer world crisis as its economy slows" (LA Times), "China's economy feels chill from global crisis" (AP). For detailed numbers, see Haver.
October 01, 2008
Chinese Trade: An Update
I was surprised by this item from the BBC:
Chinese trade surplus at new high
Wednesday, 10 September 2008
China's trade surplus hit a monthly record of $28.7bn (£16.28bn) in August as the gap with the US and Europe widened, despite weaker world demand.
September 02, 2008
A new dynamic for the Middle East
Maybe it's time to try something new. And maybe it's already starting.
July 25, 2008
Oil prices and economic fundamentals
Oil was selling for $123 a barrel on May 7, and that's where it closed this week. Sounds like a calm and rational market, except for the fact that just last week it was going for $145.
July 18, 2008
IMF on the Global Macroeconomy, CBO on US-China Trade
The IMF released an update to it's World Economic Outlook yesterday.
- Global economic growth to slow significantly in second half of 2008.
- Rising energy, commodity prices have boosted inflationary pressure
- Need to adapt to shift in purchasing power from commodity users to producers
June 19, 2008
China and the business cycle
Could the phenomenal growth train get derailed?
June 04, 2008
More on De-Globalization: Oil, Transport Costs and Inflation
The impact of rising transportation costs, driven significantly by high oil prices, is already being seen in capital-intensive manufacturing that carry a high ratio of freight costs to the final sale price. But a new report has determined that higher energy prices are affecting transport costs at such an unprecedented rate that "the cost of moving goods, not the cost of tariffs, is the largest barrier to global trade today."
May 22, 2008
RMB Misalignment in a PPP Framework: The Impact of Data Revisions
The World Bank's new World Development Indicators were released a bit over a month ago. The impact on the estimates of RMB misalignment are substantial. (This is an elaboration on a RGEMonitor post by Yin-Wong Cheung from a week and half ago, and is based on preliminary results from a presentation made yesterday at a Deutsche Bundesbank and Center for Financial Studies/Goethe University Frankfurt Workshop on Panel Methods and Open Economies".)
May 20, 2008
Oil price fundamentals
I've been offering reasons for believing that the flow of funds into commodity investing has contributed to the recent oil price highs. Although I believe this speculation has gotten ahead of fundamentals in the last few months, there is no question in my mind that market fundamentals are the main reason for the broader 5-year move up in oil prices. Here I review those fundamental factors.
April 02, 2008
The Yuan on the Move: An Update
And a bit on the IMF's revised forecast for the US.
February 11, 2008
China's air pollution
January 03, 2008
Do We Really Know that a Flexible Exchange Rate Regime Facilitates Current Account Adjustment?
In an post in VoxEU, Shang-Jin Wei alluded to work we have undertaken examining whether de facto exchange rate regimes have an impact on current account reversion.
December 26, 2007
More on China, Currency Misalignment and Data Revisions
In a previous post on China's currency, I focused on the implications of the ADB's report on the new ICP analysis of PPP-based GDPs for misalignment estimates for China. Now, it's time to look a bit more closely at why the data revision occurred.
December 17, 2007
An Exercise in Sheer Conjecture
China, PPP, and Misalignment Estimates
September 30, 2007
Foreign Exchange Market Transactions and Reserves: Recent Statistics
There's been a cornucopia of forex market information released in the past week, which I'm only now getting to. First, the BIS has released the preliminary results from its Triennial Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Derivatives Market Activity, conducted in April of this year. The results are interesting, insofar as they confirm trends evident in the previous survey in 2004. Second, the IMF released its most recent tabulation of foreign exchange reserve holdings (COFER).
September 19, 2007
Divining the Dollar
The dollar declines in response to the drop in the target Fed Funds rate. What next?
September 18, 2007
Four Observations on Import and Export Prices and the Dollar
Some delayed reflections on exchange rates, trade prices, and the messages from the August data.
September 13, 2007
Saving Glut Redux
Bernanke recaps his interpretation of the explanation for global imbalances. Is it any more convincing than the first time?
August 23, 2007
How does China retain monetary autonomy?
As I discussed in earlier posts, China retains some policy autonomy by virtue of the presence of capital controls. A recent working paper by Ma and McCauley attempts to quantify how binding the controls are.
August 13, 2007
Myths about, and Empirics on, Chinese Trade and FDI
There is a lot of hyperbole surrounding China's entry into the world trading system. There is fear in countries that compete with China, there is fear that China is somehow orchestrating the transfer of technological prowess from foreign to domestic firms, and a host of other anxieties.
August 12, 2007
China, Reserve Accumulation, and (Further) Threats to Financial Stability
From Financial Times:
August 03, 2007
Revaluation and China's Multilateral Trade Balance: First Estimates
Yin-Wong Cheung, Eiji Fujii and I have just completed a paper entitled China's Current Account and Exchange Rate" for a conference on China's Growing Role in World Trade. This paper follows up on some of the issues I laid out in these posts: , , , and .
July 23, 2007
What is Chinese GDP really doing?
Amidst all the discussion about rampant Chinese GDP growth, the appropriate conduct of macro policy in restraining that growth, and the implications for the components of aggregate demand, a simple question leads to complicated answers.
July 16, 2007
More on the Yuan and the Chinese Trade Balance
More speculation on the Yuan's prospects. From Bloomberg:
July 09, 2007
Energy use in Japan
I was in Japan a week ago, giving lectures at some of the universities in Tokyo and the Bank of Japan. I couldn't help but be struck by how differently energy is used in Tokyo compared with southern California.
June 14, 2007
Keeping China's Yuan in Perspective
The Treasury released its report International Economic and Exchange Rate Policies yesterday. As expected, the Treasury declined to declare China a currency manipulator. On the same day, four senators submitted legislation to tie Treasury's hands in terms of the actions it can take against countries with "misaligned" currencies.
May 08, 2007
The Empirics of Chinese Trade and Implications of Yuan Appreciation
In previous posts I've discussed some of the estimates of aggregate trade elasticities. Some new work presented at a recent IMF conference on Chinese trade suggests that we may need to revise some of our views on the efficacy of yuan appreciation for inducing expenditure switching.
April 26, 2007
The Economic Integration of Greater China
An assessment of real and financial integration, co-authored by Yin-Wong Cheung (University of California at Santa Cruz Economics), Menzie D. Chinn (University of Wisconsin at Madison La Follette School and Economics) and Eiji Fujii (Tsukuba University, Graduate School).
April 10, 2007
Are Democrats Truly More Protectionist? (Part II)
There was some disagreement with my assertion that Democrats were -- effectively -- not as protectionist as many have argued. Here are some more thoughts on the matter, as the Administration prepares the case for countervailing duties on Chinese imports .
March 18, 2007
Attaining Internal and External Equilibrium in China
China raises rates again. What will higher rates do?
February 12, 2007
The 2007 Economic Report of the President on Exchange Rate Determination (and the Renminbi)
The 2007 Economic Report of the President was released Monday afternoon. Chapter 7, entitled "Currency Markets and Exchange Rates," is a laudable exegesis on the determination of exchange rates.
January 09, 2007
International Economics at the AEA/ASSA: Selected Items
The Allied Social Sciences Association (incorporating the AEA, the Econometric Society, the International Economics and Finance Society and many other groups) meetings took place in Chicago this last weekend. I wasn't able to go to that many sessions, but I did attend a few related to international issues.
December 20, 2006
The RMB: Where's it been and where's it going?
Faster appreciation against the dollar. And apparently against a broad basket of currencies.
December 18, 2006
Econoblog on "Dollars, Debt and the Trade Gap"
Thoughts on the Dropping Dollar
December 15, 2006
Bernanke in China
Distortion versus effective subsidy.
December 05, 2006
China: Over-investment or not
There's been a debate whether investment rates in China are sustainable or not.
November 02, 2006
Estimating U.S.-China Trade Elasticities: Some Very Preliminary Results
Do we have any idea what the CNY appreciation against the dollar will accomplish?
September 14, 2006
Measuring the U.S.-China trade balance
August 25, 2006
How Mobile Is Capital Internationally?
The issue of international capital mobility comes up time and time again. There is the worry of capital and associated production capacity moving abroad to China for lower wage rates, and if not to China, to the rest of the world to escape environmental regulations or to avoid corporate taxation. So how mobile is capital?
August 16, 2006
A closer look at the US-China trade figures...and more on the RMB
The Renminbi (RMB) is probably undervalued, according to some criteria. Would adjusting it fix the US-China trade deficit? Or the overall US trade deficit?
August 02, 2006
The enigmatic Yuan
The Yuan has not been moving much. Or has it? And does it matter much for the U.S. current account deficit
July 11, 2006
China roars into the automotive era
Guess who's now the second-biggest market for new cars in the world?
June 05, 2006
Learning (or non-learning) from the Classical Age
Or, what if George W. Bush had lived in 480 BCE; would we all be speaking Persian?
May 16, 2006
Is dollar depreciation a separate policy channel for trade balance adjustment?
The dollar is on the decline...more or less. Will this cause the long awaited adjustment?
May 11, 2006
The portfolio balance effect and reserve diversification
Implications from the debate over the Renminbi. And the Won. And the...
April 20, 2006
Is the Renminbi (Rmb) undervalued in price terms? Does it matter if it is?
With the visit of President Hu to the United States, Chinese currency misalignment is at the top of the agenda. What is "misalignment"?
December 17, 2005
Beat that growth rate!
There's no question that China is experiencing very strong growth. But exactly how much? I doubt that anybody knows for sure.
December 08, 2005
Only 17 more (oil) shopping days until December 31
Does everybody remember this story from July 3?
October 24, 2005
China GDP Statistics
More and more people are concluding that those unbelievable China GDP statistics are, well, unbelievable.
October 07, 2005
Oil prices coming down
Oil prices have been coming down significantly this week. Is that good economic news?
August 15, 2005
More to the story on Chinese oil demand
As more facts come out about Chinese oil demand, the more fascinating the picture becomes.
August 02, 2005
New highs for oil
Why did oil prices make new highs this week?
July 17, 2005
The week in oil markets
The news from China last week could be the first indication of an extremely important development.
June 26, 2005
Can anything slake China's thirst for oil?
If China's oil demand keeps growing at its current rate, it could produce some real problems. But I see a number of reasons to expect that the growth will slow down significantly.