April 23, 2013
Reply to Prof. Hamilton regarding "Reinhart-Rogoff Data Problems"
Today Econbrowser hosts this guest contribution from Robert Pollin and Michael Ash of the Department of Economics and Political Economy Research Institute (PERI) at the University of Massachusetts-Amherst.
Continue reading "Reply to Prof. Hamilton regarding "Reinhart-Rogoff Data Problems""
Posted by James Hamilton at 04:52 PM permalink | Comments (17)
October 08, 2011
Is another U.S. recession a 'done deal'?
Today we're pleased to feature a guest contribution from Michael Dueker, chief economist at Russell Investments and formerly an assistant vice president in the Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Dueker is also a member of the Blue Chip forecasting panel. Econbrowser readers may remember that in February 2008 Dueker correctly predicted the onset of the current recession, using a model-based forecast. In a depths-of-recession piece from December 2008, he predicted in this forum that the recession would last until July or August of 2009, but that employment growth would not resume until March of 2010. We asked Mike to share the latest macroeconomic predictions from the Dueker Business Cycle Index model, subject to the disclaimer that the content does not constitute investment advice or projections of the stock market or any specific investment.
Continue reading "Is another U.S. recession a 'done deal'?"
Posted by James Hamilton at 12:39 PM permalink | Comments (22)
September 07, 2011
Following the Swiss lead
Today Econbrowser is pleased to feature a guest post from Johns Hopkins University Professor Jonathan Wright, in which he proposes an option for economic stimulus by the Federal Reserve.
Continue reading "Following the Swiss lead"
Posted by James Hamilton at 05:08 PM permalink | Comments (24)
August 04, 2010
Lessons from the Gulf Spill: Do's and Don'ts
We're pleased to feature another post from Steven Kopits of Douglas-Westwood, this time on lessons to be learned from the BP oil disaster.
Continue reading "Lessons from the Gulf Spill: Do's and Don'ts"
Posted by James Hamilton at 08:33 AM permalink | Comments (24)
June 29, 2010
EIA: The China Syndrome
We're pleased to feature another post from Steven Kopits of Douglas-Westwood, this time on the EIA's oil demand outlook.
Continue reading "EIA: The China Syndrome"
Posted by James Hamilton at 07:48 PM permalink | Comments (34)
June 02, 2010
EIA: Hard Core Peak Oil Forecast
Today Econbrowser is pleased to host this guest contribution from Steven Kopits, who heads the New York office of Douglas-Westwood, energy business consultants.
Continue reading "EIA: Hard Core Peak Oil Forecast"
Posted by James Hamilton at 06:18 PM permalink | Comments (39)
May 05, 2010
How much damage does the market think the oil spill has done?
Econbrowser is pleased to host this guest contribution from UCSD Ph.D. candidate Ben Fissel, who shares a quick estimate of the economic damage from the Gulf oil spill.
Continue reading "How much damage does the market think the oil spill has done?"
Posted by James Hamilton at 09:08 PM permalink | Comments (17)
September 11, 2009
Guest contribution from Michael Dueker on the economic recovery
Michael Dueker is Head Economist for North America at Russell Investments and a member of the Blue Chip forecasting panel. In February of 2008 he warned Econbrowser readers that it appeared unlikely that the economy was going to escape the slowdown without a recession. In December of 2008, he predicted in this forum that the recession would last until July or August of 2009, but that employment growth would not resume until March of 2010.
With that track record, we were very interested to learn the latest macroeconomic predictions stemming from Russell's Business Cycle Index, subject to the disclaimer that the content does not constitute investment advice or projections of the stock market or any specific investment.
Continue reading "Guest contribution from Michael Dueker on the economic recovery"
Posted by James Hamilton at 04:19 PM permalink | Comments (30)
July 09, 2009
Guest Contribution: Index Funds and Commodity Prices... Here We Go Again
By Scott Irwin
Econbrowser is pleased to host another contribution from Scott Irwin, who holds the Laurence J. Norton Chair of Agricultural Marketing at the University of Illinois, and today offers some insights from his research on the current debate concerning commodity speculation.
Continue reading "Guest Contribution: Index Funds and Commodity Prices... Here We Go Again"
Posted by James Hamilton at 08:30 PM permalink | Comments (13)
March 20, 2009
Guest Post: President Obama's Plan to Improve Small Business Credit
By Robert Fairlie
Today, we're fortunate to have Rob Fairlie, UC Santa Cruz Professor of Economics as a guest blogger. Some of his work was discussed in this earlier post.
On Monday, President Obama announced a plan to unfreeze capital for small businesses (see here). With the potential of creating new jobs and helping the country move out of the recession, the White House offered several actions to help small businesses obtain the capital that they need. The financial crisis has taken a devastating toll on entrepreneurs as capital has become increasingly scarce. This year's projections for loans guaranteed by the Small Business Administration are down to $10 billion, which is half the amount of loans guaranteed last year.
Continue reading "Guest Post: President Obama's Plan to Improve Small Business Credit"
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 11:50 AM permalink | Comments (18)
February 08, 2009
Kash Mansori on a home purchase tax credit
We're pleased today to feature a guest contribution to Econbrowser from Kash Mansori, senior economist for Jefferson Wells International.
Continue reading "Kash Mansori on a home purchase tax credit"
Posted by James Hamilton at 07:43 PM permalink | Comments (43)
December 09, 2008
Predicting the trough and a jobless recovery
Michael Dueker is a senior portfolio strategist at Russell Investments and formerly was an assistant vice president in the Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Michael is also a member of the Blue Chip forecasting panel. In early February 2008, Michael submitted a piece to Econbrowser that correctly predicted the onset of the current recession, using a model-based forecast. We are pleased that that he is now presenting forecasts from the same Qual VAR model concerning the recession's trough date and the magnitude of a jobless recovery to follow, subject to the disclaimer that the content is the responsibility of the author and does not represent official positions of Russell Investments and does not constitute investment advice.
Continue reading "Predicting the trough and a jobless recovery"
Posted by James Hamilton at 08:18 PM permalink | Comments (42)
September 17, 2008
Scott Irwin takes down Michael Masters
Econbrowser is pleased to host another contribution from Scott Irwin, who holds the Laurence J. Norton Chair of Agricultural Marketing at the University of Illinois. Today Scott offers a critique of a recent report by Michael Masters on the role of commodity speculation.
Continue reading "Scott Irwin takes down Michael Masters"
Posted by James Hamilton at 01:46 PM permalink | Comments (35)
July 08, 2008
UAE & Other Gulf Countries Urged to Switch Currency Peg from the Dollar to a Basket That Includes Oil
By Jeffrey Frankel
Today, we're fortunate to have Jeff Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government, as a guest blogger. His blog is here.
The possibility that some Gulf states, particularly the UAE, might abandon their long-time pegs to the dollar is getting increasing attention (from Martin Feldstein and Brad Setser, for instance). It makes sense. The combination of high oil prices, rapid growth, a tightly fixed exchange rate, and the big depreciation of the dollar against other currencies (especially the euro, important for Gulf imports) was always going to be a recipe for strong money inflows and inflation in these countries. The economic dynamism -- most striking in Dubai -- is admirable and fascinating, but also now clearly indicative of overheating. Indeed inflation, as predicted, has risen alarmingly. Among other ill effects, it is producing unrest among immigrant workers. An appreciation of the dirham and riyal is the obvious solution.
Posted by Menzie Chinn at 08:36 AM permalink | Comments (25)
April 16, 2008
Commodity arbitrage
Scott Irwin is the Laurence J. Norton Chair of Agricultural Marketing at the University of Illinois. He has been doing some fascinating research on the relation between spot and futures prices in agricultural markets that may shed some light on the role of speculation in recent commodity price movements. We are delighted that Scott agreed to share some of the results of his research with Econbrowser readers.
Continue reading "Commodity arbitrage"
Posted by James Hamilton at 11:07 AM permalink | Comments (19)
February 05, 2008
Predicting recession
Michael Dueker is a senior portfolio strategist at Russell Investments and formerly was an assistant vice president in the Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. He has been doing some very interesting economic research recently in developing what he calls a Qual VAR model for predicting recessions. We are pleased that he agreed to share some of the current implications of that research with Econbrowser readers, subject to the disclaimer that the content is the responsibility of the author and does not represent official positions of Russell Investments and does not constitute investment advice.
Continue reading "Predicting recession"
Posted by James Hamilton at 02:59 PM permalink | Comments (15)
February 07, 2007
Guest column from John Taylor on Milton Friedman
Econbrowser is pleased to host these remarks from Stanford Professor John Taylor, which were delivered at the memorial service held at Hoover Institution and Stanford University on January 22.
Continue reading "Guest column from John Taylor on Milton Friedman"
Posted by James Hamilton at 11:41 AM permalink | Comments (9)
November 12, 2005
Menzie Chinn joins Econbrowser
I'm pleased to report that Menzie Chinn has agreed to sign on as a regular contributor to Econbrowser, so that the official staff of our little enterprise has now doubled. Those who have followed his outstanding earlier contributions as a guest blogger should be as happy as I am with this development.
Posted by James Hamilton at 02:55 PM permalink | Comments (4)
September 26, 2005
Introducing Menzie Chinn
Econbrowser is pleased to welcome guest blogger Menzie Chinn, who is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison.
Posted by James Hamilton at 05:04 PM permalink | Comments (4)