March 19, 2013
Iraq Metrics, Ten Years After
We should not forget what costs we incurred in search of weapons of mass destruction.
July 18, 2012
Maugeri on peak oil
Carpe Diem, Reuters, FTalphaville, and WhaleOil are among those calling attention to a new paper by Leonardo Maugeri, senior manager for the Italian oil company Eni, and Senior Fellow at Harvard University, which concluded:
Contrary to what most people believe, oil supply capacity is growing worldwide at such an unprecedented level that it might outpace consumption. This could lead to a glut of overproduction and a steep dip in oil prices.
Based on original, bottom-up, field-by-field analysis of most oil exploration and development projects in the world, this paper suggests that an unrestricted, additional production (the level of production targeted by each single project, according to its schedule, unadjusted for risk) of more than 49 million barrels per day of oil (crude oil and natural gas liquids, or NGLs) is targeted for 2020, the equivalent of more than half the current world production capacity of 93 mbd. [After factoring in risk factors and depletion rates of currently producing oilfields], the net additional production capacity by 2020 could be 17.6 mbd, yielding a world oil production capacity of 110.6 mbd by that date.
Here I take a look at some of the details of Maugeri's analysis.
September 25, 2011
The Trillion Dollar War of Choice, and the Constraints on Macro Policy
Or at least $805.6 billion as of the end of September, not including debt service and additional reset costs; around $940 billion including interest payments.
As the US economy faces the prospects of stagnant growth or recession, it is of interest to see why the scope for fiscal policy is so circumscribed -- that is why is the debt level so high given that in the last year of the Clinton Administration, we were paying down debt? Figure 1 depicts part of the answer (other parts, here).
January 29, 2011
Geopolitical unrest and world oil markets
Change is on the way in the Arab world, with Egypt the latest focal point. Here I review recent events and their implications for world oil markets.
September 02, 2008
A new dynamic for the Middle East
Maybe it's time to try something new. And maybe it's already starting.
July 05, 2008
Iraq is a success if...
...oil was the objective. Maybe.
March 19, 2008
Iraq Burn Rate > $12 billion per month?
That's what's implied by the graphic in today's NYT article, based on CBO data.
February 20, 2008
WMDs, Fighting Terrorism, Democracy, Military Keynesianism
From FT yesterday:
February 19, 2008
$100 a barrel
Crude oil reached a record high on Tuesday, and there's an embarrassing oversupply of theories to explain why.
September 21, 2007
If Iraq becomes West Germany
Some people have argued that the occupation of Iraq could evolve into a West Germany type situation. CBO has assessed the costs of this eventuality.
September 17, 2007
Economic indicators of success in Iraq
Some economists have been interpreting economic developments as shedding light on the success of the military surge in Iraq. I think one needs to use a bit of caution in drawing conclusions from such evidence.
September 12, 2007
Perspective on the Surge and US Losses
I thought it would behoove us to actually inspect the data and look at the trends (as opposed to listening to Administration officials) associated with operations in the Iraqi theater.
July 31, 2007
Costing the Surge, and More...
Given the statements that the U.S. might be "surging the surge", expect an incremental $40 billion to be expended over the next two years.
July 18, 2007
Expenditures continue to rise. More appropriations will likely be needed at this pace.
April 30, 2007
Four Years after "Mission Accomplished"
I thought that it was proper and fitting to evaluate the state of affairs in Iraq four years after President Bush declared the end of major military combat operations in Iraq.
March 25, 2007
Some Implications of "Staying the Course"
The numbers are flying around -- so much so that one cannot be sure of where force levels will be in a few months. However, based upon press reports and data provided by the Brookings Institution's Iraq Index, we can make some educated guesses.
February 20, 2007
Or some (more) things in the Budget Proposal don't add up
Suppose the President's plan to escalate troop levels in Iraq succeeds in stabilizating Baghdad. What does that mean for future expenditures in support of the occupation of Iraq? Is the President's $50 billion request for Iraq related expenditures in FY2009 consistent with the plan? This article from GovExec.com provides some hints.
February 09, 2007
Is a 12 Step Program Needed for Policymaking in Washington?
From the Wikipedia entry on 12-step programs:
January 22, 2007
Army Transformation sacrificed on the altar of ...(a) tax cuts, (b) Iraq, (c) other
January 15, 2007
Escalation and Accidental Military Keynesianism
Under plausible assumptions, Fiscal Year '07 expenditures for operations in Iraq will come close to 1 percentage point of GDP. What will be the impact on the U.S. economy?
January 10, 2007
The Wartime Economy and Tax Policy
So Shinseki was right.
January 04, 2007
President Bush on Economics
On Wednesday, the President writes in a Wall Street Journal op-ed (sub. req.):
December 23, 2006
Blood, oil, and ideology
December 22, 2006
Surge or no surge? minimal "burn rates" for operations in Iraq
Where are expenditure rates now? Where might they go?
December 18, 2006
Additional thoughts on Iraq
Shivaji Sondhi and Michael Cook, who direct the Project on Oil, Energy and the Middle East at the Princeton Institute of International and Regional Studies, offer these additional thoughts for the cross-blog discussion on Iraq as a follow-up to their original contribution.
December 14, 2006
Blogging colloquium on Iraq
Dave Schuler and his Glittering Eye have called for a cross-blog discussion on options and prospects for Iraq. I'm glad to contribute with some thoughts on the economic situation, and invite you to participate as well, with comments left here or at any of the other participating sites.
November 21, 2006
Guest column from Shivaji Sondhi and Michael Cook
The moment seems to be opportune for some creative ideas about how to handle the situation in Iraq. Econbrowser is pleased today to publish a guest column from Princeton professors Shivaji Sondhi and Michael Cook, who direct the Project on Oil, Energy and the Middle East at the Princeton Institute of International and Regional Studies.
October 31, 2006
"Trends in Iraq" - Updated
This figure updates the data presented in an earlier post on Iraq trends, replacing the projection with actual figures for October.
October 22, 2006
Monday, December 18, 2006
At the rate of casualties incurred in October-to-date, cumulative U.S. fatalities in the Iraqi theater of operations will exceed 3000 on this date.
October 12, 2006
Trends in Iraq
Casualties, force levels and expenditures
September 10, 2006
Ex post versus ex ante benefit-cost analysis: Iraq 2003-
Now that the long-delayed Senate report on pre-Iraq War intelligence has finally put the Republican imprimatur on the well-established fact that the case for Iraqi WMD's had been hyped (as well as the absence of a Iraq-al Qaeda link), we can return our attention to a rational benefit-cost assessment for the invasion and subsequent occupation, ex ante as well as (quasi) ex post.
August 23, 2006
Opportunity cost illustrated
On a one year anniversary, a look back to (one of the reasons) why the National Guard's post-Katrina rescue and recovery efforts were hampered.
July 20, 2006
(Non) transparency of GWOT expenditures, and an update on Iraq metrics
While the events in Lebanon and Gaza have pushed Iraq off center stage, Iraq and Afghanistan remain the largest fiscal drains on the U.S. Treasury and the military's ability to respond to other strategic challenges. In this light, GAO Comptroller David Walker's testimony on Tuesday [pdf] is both illuminating and depressing. From the Summary:
June 20, 2006
Some Iraq cost metrics on a one year anniversary
Evaluating the costs one year after Cheney's prediction of "the last throes ...of the insurgency"
February 25, 2006
Iraq's electricity challenges
Those who want to see Iraq's democracy fail have targeted electricity production as one of the key strategic objectives of the conflict. Those who want to see Iraq succeed would be wise to do likewise.
February 08, 2006
A proposal for Iraq
Here are some thoughts on how to get the vast oil wealth of Iraq working most quickly and effectively to benefit the Iraqi people.