May 20, 2010
San Diego economy outlook
The San Diego Daily Transcript invited me to join a group of economists in discussing prospects for the local economy. You can watch the discussion in a series of videos:
August 25, 2009
Good news on house prices
I was happy and surprised to see that the nominal S&P/Case-Shiller seasonally adjusted Home Price Index rose by 0.75% in June for a composite of 20 U.S. metropolitan areas.
April 12, 2009
Why sell crack when taking money from a careless lender is so much easier and more profitable?
February 14, 2009
Former Bernanke home in foreclosure
A couple of stories that provide some personal perspective on the scope of the current problems.
June 11, 2008
Housing and the oil shock
The housing downturn and rising gasoline prices are each exerting a significant contractionary influence on U.S. GDP. There is also an interactive effect between the two.
February 26, 2008
House prices falling and worries rising
Today we received updates on U.S. house prices from two different sources. The OFHEO national house price index recorded a 1.3% decline in the price of a typical U.S. home during the fourth quarter of 2007, while the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index registered a 5.7% decline during the last three months of 2007. Here in San Diego, the respective numbers showed a 2.6% decline according to OFHEO and 9.1% decline from Case-Shiller during the quarter. For the year as a whole, Case-Shiller calculates that home prices fell 9.8% nationally and 15% locally.
February 14, 2008
Tracking home prices in San Diego
Earlier this week, I explained why real estate prices, rather than interest rates or credit workouts, are the critical determinant of how bad the foreclosure problem is going to become. Today I discuss some of the alternative measures of real estate prices that we might look at, illustrated using the latest numbers for my own community here in San Diego.
February 01, 2008
A "San Diego-style" recession
Alan Gin is an economics professor at the University of San Diego (a separate institution from the University of California at San Diego, where I teach). His San Diego index of leading economic indicators is sending a pretty strong negative signal.
October 23, 2007
San Diego fires
Thanks to our many friends around the world who've asked if we're ok. We are indeed, and, if you're curious, here's our story.
September 25, 2007
More troubles for housing
New data released today portend continued weakness for housing.
August 25, 2007
San Diego plans for the future
With all the excitement over the last few weeks, I never had a chance to mention this remarkable account of the long-run vision of San Diego's City Council.
July 25, 2007
San Diego index of leading indicators
Professor Alan Gin's index may be of interest to those of us wondering where California's economy is headed and to anyone who might want to construct a similar index for their own local economy.
March 30, 2007
San Diego County pension fund sues Amaranth hedge fund
March 20, 2007
San Diego city pension fund
I earlier described some disturbing details about the assets held by the San Diego County Employees Retirement Association. Our separate pension fund for city employees, the San Diego City Employees' Retirement System, is another tale of local woe that I worry may have global implications.
February 23, 2007
San Diego County pension fund
I have been developing concerns about the possibility that hedge fund investment flows have become a destabilizing force in world financial markets. Following the maxim "think globally, act locally," I decided to take a look at how the behavior of our local pension funds may be one small part of that phenomenom. And I have some recommendations to make on behalf of San Diego County residents and the world at large.
January 26, 2007
San Diego Economic Roundtable
I participated this morning in the 23rd Annual San Diego County Economic Roundtable discussion of prospects for the national and local economy. Slides from my remarks are available here and video from the event will be rebroadcast locally a number of times (schedule here).
My bottom line? I think 2007 will be disappointing, but not a disaster.
UPDATE: the event has also been covered by the San Diego Union Tribune.
September 29, 2006
Amaranth hedge fund losses
How in the world did hedge fund Amaranth Advisors manage to lose $6 billion in September on natural gas trading?
February 05, 2006
Bob Dylan and Twyla Tharp: An Econbrowser musical review
Right Wing Bob complains that he can't find a review of the new Twyla Tharp Bob Dylan musical anywhere on the web. Who is Right Wing Bob, you ask? Well, he seems to be the guy with whose lament you end up if you try googling "Bob Dylan Twyla Tharp." So, as a service to RWB and the world at large, Econbrowser offers this musical review.
August 06, 2005
Update on Kelo in California
New developments on the implications of the Supreme Court's Kelo decision for California.
July 19, 2005
San Diego in the spotlight
Say what you will about San Diego politics, at least it's not boring.