Econbrowser

What the heck is a "Punk Staffer"?

Menzie Chinn — 2010-03-18T16:10:25-08:00

And how does a "punk staffer" differ from a non-punk staffer?

CBO Scoring of HR3590 plus Reconciliation Legislation

Menzie Chinn — 2010-03-18T10:30:51-08:00

The CBO and the Congressional Joint Committee on Taxation have just released its scoring of "budgetary effects of the reconciliation proposal, in combination with the effects of H.R. 3590, the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA), as passed by the Senate". The link to the document is here. The CBO/JCT estimated reduction in the deficit over FY2010-2019 is $119 billion. A comparison of the impact on the budget balance against previous reconciliation measures is presented in Figure 1, below.

Obama after One Year: Crisis, Response, Recovery

Menzie Chinn — 2010-03-18T06:15:55-08:00

A couple days ago, I presented my views on the policy response to the financial crisis and the Great Recession in a UW Center for World Affairs and the Global Economy / UW CIBER / MITA and ICE sponsored event. The power point slides are here (big file, 1.3MB). I took the latitude as the invited speaker to expand the topic from the Obama Administration's measures to encompass the response to the crisis and recession from both the fiscal and monetary policy authorities.

Bank supervision and the Federal Reserve

James Hamilton — 2010-03-17T10:33:36-08:00

In testimony today before Congress, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke outlined his reasons why the Federal Reserve is uniquely suited to be the regulatory supervisor for U.S. banks.

What Do Business Economists Think the ARRA Accomplished?

Menzie Chinn — 2010-03-15T21:08:30-08:00

Or, counterfactuals, yet again.

Or, rejoinder to Casey Mulligan, Joseph Lawler, david, tim kemper and others.

From the WSJ March survey survey of forecasters, the results indicate that instead of the 0.15% growth rate recorded in 09Q4 y/y growth, the growth rate would have been -0.93%. For 2010Q4 Q4/Q4 growth, they forecast 3% growth, and in the absence of the ARRA, they would have predicted 2.2% growth.

2010 Econbrowser NCAA tournament challenge

James Hamilton — 2010-03-15T15:52:12-08:00

If you're both a very faithful and a very passive Econbrowser reader, for two years now you've sat on the sidelines while you watched other, equally faithful but less passive readers participate in the world-famous Econbrowser NCAA Tournament Challenge, in which brave souls pretend they can predict a significant number of the winners of the games of the NCAA men's basketball tournament. If so, here's your third chance to sit on the sidelines again, or maybe even to participate this time.

The challenges ahead for world oil

James Hamilton — 2010-03-14T06:35:13-08:00

University of Leeds Professor Joyce Dargay and New York University Professor Dermot Gately have a new research paper suggesting that projections from the DOE, IEA, and OPEC are underestimating the challenges ahead for meeting world oil demand.

Update: the 2010-19 Impact of PPACA on Budget Balance

Menzie Chinn — 2010-03-12T11:05:38-08:00

And a quantitative comparison to previous reconciliation measures.

The CBO and the Congressional Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) have updated cost estimates for H.R. 3590, the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA), as it was passed by the Senate on December 24, 2009. The figures are here. I've incorporated the new estimates into the bar chart first reported in this March 1st post.

Durable Goods and the Collapse of Global Trade

Menzie Chinn — 2010-03-11T12:50:09-08:00

From a Dallas Fed Letter by Jian Wang:

Durable goods represent a moderate share of the economy in most industrial countries -- in the U.S., for example, they accounted for 23.6 percent of real GDP in 2008. However, durable goods make up a large share of international trade. In the U.S., they accounted for more than 60 percent of trade in goods (excluding energy products) in 2008. The figure is 70 percent on average for the OECD countries, according to several studies.

Whither the Yuan?

Menzie Chinn — 2010-03-11T11:10:32-08:00

Political pressure seems to be mounting for yuan appreciation. [0] Figure 1 depicts the stability in the USD/CNY nominal exchange rate over the past year.

Modeling problems in credit markets

James Hamilton — 2010-03-09T21:23:25-08:00

On Friday I joined fellow blogger Mark Thoma (and a good many other economists) at a very interesting conference on financial markets held at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Here I share some ideas I expressed at the conference about the directions I feel this research ought to go.

Aspirin

Menzie Chinn — 2010-03-09T09:41:59-08:00

Russ Roberts writes:

Menzie Chinn invokes the CBO "estimates" to argue against those who say the stimulus didn't work. Did the stimulus help turn the economy around and create jobs? I'm skeptical on logical grounds but I confess that I do not have strong empirical evidence on my side.
But those who defend the stimulus have no empirical support either...

Speaking of Unfunded Liabilities: Medicare Part D

Menzie Chinn — 2010-03-08T20:34:52-08:00

The Financial Report of the United States Government, 2009 was released last week. Perusing the tables, one encounters the gigantic new, unfunded entitlement enacted in 2003, namely Medicare Part D.

A new index of financial conditions

James Hamilton — 2010-03-07T07:10:30-08:00

What do current financial indicators tell us about where the economy is headed?

The Global Financial Crisis: Explaining Cross-Country Differences in the Output Impact

Menzie Chinn — 2010-03-04T11:15:39-08:00

From "The Global Financial Crisis: Explaining Cross-Country Differences in the Output Impact," IMF WP 09/280, by Pelin Berkmen, Gaston Gelos, Robert Rennhack, and James P. Walsh:

We provide one of the first attempts at explaining the differences in the crisis impact across developing countries and emerging markets. Using cross-country regressions to explain the factors driving growth forecast revisions after the eruption of the global crisis, we find that a small set of variables explain a large share of the variation in growth revisions. ...