Econbrowser http://www.econbrowser.com/ Analysis of current economic conditions and policy 2009-11-19T20:45:12-08:00 China, the Renminbi, and Global Imbalances: A Quantitative View http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2009/11/china_the_renmi.html President Obama's trip to China has returned to scrutiny the role of China's currency and macroeconomic policies in perpetuating global imbalances. [0] [1] [2]

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China Menzie Chinn 2009-11-19T20:45:12-08:00
GDP: Revisions and Forecasts http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2009/11/theres_been_som.html There's been some discussion of how the GDP estimates for 2009Q3 might be revised downward in light of the September trade release [1]. e-Forecasting has presented its latest estimates up to October, and Macroeconomic Advisers through September. Macroeconomic Advisers writes:

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economic indicators Menzie Chinn 2009-11-19T17:41:42-08:00
Receiver operating characteristics curve http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2009/11/receiver_operat.html Travis Berge and Oscar Jorda of the University of California, Davis have an interesting new paper on statistical criteria for distinguishing economic expansions from recessions.

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recession James Hamilton 2009-11-18T09:36:10-08:00
Assessing the Impact of Government Policy on Widget Consumption and Widget Sector Capital Usage http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2009/11/assessing_the_i.html Let supply and demand for widgets (y) be given by the following two equations, respectively:

(1) yt = αt + β x t + ε t

(2) yt = γ + δ x t + Γ z t + u t

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economic indicators Menzie Chinn 2009-11-16T14:50:38-08:00
The Global Surface Temperature Anomaly http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2009/11/the_global_surf.html From NOAA's National Climate Data Center:

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here and there Menzie Chinn 2009-11-16T09:37:40-08:00
Commodity inflation http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2009/11/commodity_infla.html Why are the prices of so many commodities rising in an economy that seems to remain quite weak?

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inflation James Hamilton 2009-11-15T06:36:39-08:00
<![CDATA[<I>Politico</I> Does Economic Analysis...]]> http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2009/11/politico_does_e.html Be afraid; be very afraid.

From "'Created or saved' doesn't add up", by Joseph Lawler:

...[t]he "created or saved" numbers are meaningless. The administration purposefully devised the metric to be nebulous. Without a counterfactual, showing the trend of unemployment in the absence of the stimulus, it is impossible to know how many jobs the stimulus saved.

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economic indicators Menzie Chinn 2009-11-11T19:10:52-08:00
Will rising oil prices derail the recovery? http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2009/11/will_rising_oil.html Last April I described new research on the role of oil prices in the recent recession. Here's an update on what's happened since then.

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energy James Hamilton 2009-11-10T19:43:06-08:00
"Where's the Consumption Disaster?" http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2009/11/wheres_the_cons.html Casey Mulligan asks:

So a year later, in September 2009, after living through a year of "disaster," how did real consumption expenditure (one economists' favorite measures of living standards) compare to what it was in September 2008?

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economic indicators Menzie Chinn 2009-11-09T20:18:36-08:00
Guest Contribution: The Liquidity Trap Does Not Make Monetary Policy Ineffective http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2009/11/guest_contribut_5.html By Joseph E. Gagnon

Today, we're fortunate to have Joe Gagnon, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, as a guest contributor.

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Federal Reserve Menzie Chinn 2009-11-09T14:31:32-08:00
Consequences of the Lehman failure http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2009/11/consequences_of_1.html William Sterling of Trilogy Global Advisors has an interesting new paper on the abrupt changes in financial markets subsequent to Lehman's bankruptcy on September 15, 2008.

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financial markets James Hamilton 2009-11-07T17:46:37-08:00
Some Thoughts Elicited by Reading Some Calibration Papers http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2009/11/some_thoughts_e_1.html (Warning: Might be considered "wonky" by some) In many economic analyses, one wants to isolate the "business cycle" component of macroeconomic series. Here is one such series, which has had a detrending technique applied to it. Try to guess what it is.

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economic indicators Menzie Chinn 2009-11-05T11:28:53-08:00
Current economic conditions http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2009/11/current_economi_3.html The U.S. recovery is underway. But so far it doesn't look as strong as we had been hoping.

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economic indicators James Hamilton 2009-11-04T06:14:29-08:00
Prospects for Employment under Differing Econometric Specifications http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2009/11/prospects_for_e.html Most economists are projecting a slow recovery in terms of employment. What do historical correlations imply?

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employment Menzie Chinn 2009-11-02T18:32:13-08:00
On Revisions and on Conditioning http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2009/10/cautionary_note.html Both have to be "handled with care".

Revisions

We're all tempted to make predictions on the basis of the last data point. And even more difficult to resist is the temptation to make definitive statements on the basis of data that are sure to be revised. For instance, we see this question from Casey Mulligan, "Where's the GDP Disaster?".

Last October, when we were told that spending and incomes were about to collapse, I predicted that "real GDP will not drop below $11 trillion (chained 2000 $)."

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recession Menzie Chinn 2009-10-31T09:50:01-08:00