Econbrowser

China, the Renminbi, and Global Imbalances: A Quantitative View

Menzie Chinn — 2009-11-19T20:45:12-08:00

President Obama's trip to China has returned to scrutiny the role of China's currency and macroeconomic policies in perpetuating global imbalances. [0] [1] [2]

GDP: Revisions and Forecasts

Menzie Chinn — 2009-11-19T17:41:42-08:00

There's been some discussion of how the GDP estimates for 2009Q3 might be revised downward in light of the September trade release [1]. e-Forecasting has presented its latest estimates up to October, and Macroeconomic Advisers through September. Macroeconomic Advisers writes:

Receiver operating characteristics curve

James Hamilton — 2009-11-18T09:36:10-08:00

Travis Berge and Oscar Jorda of the University of California, Davis have an interesting new paper on statistical criteria for distinguishing economic expansions from recessions.

Assessing the Impact of Government Policy on Widget Consumption and Widget Sector Capital Usage

Menzie Chinn — 2009-11-16T14:50:38-08:00

Let supply and demand for widgets (y) be given by the following two equations, respectively:

(1) y_t = α_t + β x _t + ε _t

(2) y_t = γ + δ x _t + Γ z _t + u _t

The Global Surface Temperature Anomaly

Menzie Chinn — 2009-11-16T09:37:40-08:00

From NOAA's National Climate Data Center:

Commodity inflation

James Hamilton — 2009-11-15T06:36:39-08:00

Why are the prices of so many commodities rising in an economy that seems to remain quite weak?

Politico Does Economic Analysis...

Menzie Chinn — 2009-11-11T19:10:52-08:00

Be afraid; be very afraid.

From "'Created or saved' doesn't add up", by Joseph Lawler:

...[t]he "created or saved" numbers are meaningless. The administration purposefully devised the metric to be nebulous. Without a counterfactual, showing the trend of unemployment in the absence of the stimulus, it is impossible to know how many jobs the stimulus saved.

Will rising oil prices derail the recovery?

James Hamilton — 2009-11-10T19:43:06-08:00

Last April I described new research on the role of oil prices in the recent recession. Here's an update on what's happened since then.

"Where's the Consumption Disaster?"

Menzie Chinn — 2009-11-09T20:18:36-08:00

Casey Mulligan asks:

So a year later, in September 2009, after living through a year of "disaster," how did real consumption expenditure (one economists' favorite measures of living standards) compare to what it was in September 2008?

Guest Contribution: The Liquidity Trap Does Not Make Monetary Policy Ineffective

Menzie Chinn — 2009-11-09T14:31:32-08:00

By Joseph E. Gagnon

Today, we're fortunate to have Joe Gagnon, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, as a guest contributor.

Consequences of the Lehman failure

James Hamilton — 2009-11-07T17:46:37-08:00

William Sterling of Trilogy Global Advisors has an interesting new paper on the abrupt changes in financial markets subsequent to Lehman's bankruptcy on September 15, 2008.

Some Thoughts Elicited by Reading Some Calibration Papers

Menzie Chinn — 2009-11-05T11:28:53-08:00

(Warning: Might be considered "wonky" by some) In many economic analyses, one wants to isolate the "business cycle" component of macroeconomic series. Here is one such series, which has had a detrending technique applied to it. Try to guess what it is.

Current economic conditions

James Hamilton — 2009-11-04T06:14:29-08:00

The U.S. recovery is underway. But so far it doesn't look as strong as we had been hoping.

Prospects for Employment under Differing Econometric Specifications

Menzie Chinn — 2009-11-02T18:32:13-08:00

Most economists are projecting a slow recovery in terms of employment. What do historical correlations imply?

On Revisions and on Conditioning

Menzie Chinn — 2009-10-31T09:50:01-08:00

Both have to be "handled with care".

Revisions

We're all tempted to make predictions on the basis of the last data point. And even more difficult to resist is the temptation to make definitive statements on the basis of data that are sure to be revised. For instance, we see this question from Casey Mulligan, "Where's the GDP Disaster?".

Last October, when we were told that spending and incomes were about to collapse, I predicted that "real GDP will not drop below $11 trillion (chained 2000 $)."