Econbrowser

What if we'd been on the gold standard?

James Hamilton — 2008-05-09T05:59:23-08:00

If the U.S. had decided to go back on the gold standard in 2006, where would we be today? That's a question my friend Randy Parker recently asked me. Here's how we both would answer.

Lazear Sees No Recession for U.S. Economy

Menzie Chinn — 2008-05-07T21:45:42-08:00

From WSJ, Henry Pulizzi and John D. McKinnon write:

Current Account Balances, Again

Menzie Chinn — 2008-05-06T20:00:39-08:00

Two years ago, as part of a multi-year project, Charles Engel and I organized a conference on current account sustainability in major advanced economies. Lask week, we convened a follow-up conference aimed at updating our knowledge on this subject. Below is the latest read on the U.S. current account to GDP.

Gasoline prices: consumers and politicians respond

James Hamilton — 2008-05-05T20:41:58-08:00

The trend is clear: demand is down and complaints are up.

Updated Chinn-Ito Financial Openness Index Online

Menzie Chinn — 2008-05-04T21:22:00-08:00

The newest version of the Chinn-Ito financial openness index (earlier discussed here), extending up to 2006, has just been posted. Here's the series for Argentina and for Venezuela.

A Memo I'd Love to See: Whales and Economics

Menzie Chinn — 2008-05-03T18:20:55-08:00

From the Washington Post:

White House officials for more than a year have blocked a rule aimed at protecting endangered North Atlantic right whales by challenging the findings of government scientists, according to documents obtained by the Union of Concerned Scientists.

Macroeconomics and ARCH

James Hamilton — 2008-05-03T05:37:30-08:00

That's the topic of my most recent research paper. Reader warning: this is a bit more technical than the standard Econbrowser post, so if you're not a user of regression analysis, this may not be up your alley.

Fast and Easy Fannie

James Hamilton — 2008-05-02T06:20:23-08:00

The Wall Street Journal had a very disturbing story on Wednesday about the "Fast and Easy" loan program of Countrywide Financial Corporation, many of whose mortgages were bought up by Fannie Mae.

Revisions, Again

Menzie Chinn — 2008-04-30T22:00:24-08:00

The 0.6 ppt growth rate (SAAR) reported in the 2008Q1 advance release seemed to validate the President's assertion that we're not in a recession, discussed in this post.

GDP still growing (barely)

James Hamilton — 2008-04-30T07:49:51-08:00

The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today that U.S. real GDP grew at a 0.6% annual rate in the first quarter of 2008, the same tepid growth rate we saw in the fourth quarter of last year.

The Monetary Model of Exchange Rates, Money Demand Shocks and Order Flow

Menzie Chinn — 2008-04-28T22:25:52-08:00

Yes, exchange rate prediction once again. Last Thursday, Michael Moore (of Queen's University Belfast) and I presented a new paper at the IMF's conference on International Macro-Finance (co-sponsored with the ESRC funded World Economy and Finance Program). Here's the paper [pdf].

Let's Think Long and Hard about Extending Those Bush Tax Cuts

Menzie Chinn — 2008-04-27T20:45:59-08:00

There was a time one could plausibly argue that importing lots of goods and services, and borrowing a lot from abroad (financing the budget deficits that we've incurred since 2001) was a great idea. But at the time, about two and a half years ago, I made the following warning in a Council of Foreign Relations report [pdf]:

The United States faces a wide variety of possible outcomes, with the most dire having a significant likelihood. One real possibility entails the satiation of global investors’ appetite for U.S. Treasury securities, combined with an endless vista of government budget deficits. After several years of large losses on dollar assets due to depreciation, they then demand a substantial premium for holding dollar-denominated assets; either the dollar must weaken so as to make Treasury securities cheap, or yields must rise relative to those on other assets.

Peter Hooper on the economic outlook

James Hamilton — 2008-04-26T20:02:10-08:00

The speaker at our UCSD Economics Roundtable this week was Peter Hooper, chief economist for Deutsche Bank Securities. Here is a brief summary of his thoughts about the U.S. economic outlook.

The case for 2-1/4

James Hamilton — 2008-04-24T18:59:50-08:00

The Federal Open Market Committee's next meeting is scheduled for April 29/30, which the May fed funds futures contract currently anticipates will result in another 25-basis-point reduction in the target fed funds rate down to 2.0%. Here's why I hope the Fed doesn't do that.

What Does the President Know, and When Did He Know It: "We're not in a recession..."

Menzie Chinn — 2008-04-23T21:25:15-08:00

From Reuters:

"We're not in a recession, we're in a slowdown," Bush said at a news conference at the end of a two-day summit with Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper and Mexican President Felipe Calderon.