I was looking to see what the Administration’s Mid-Session Review economic forecast looked like. Alas, courtesy of Jared Bernstein, I am disappointed. Did Vought et al. purge all the economists from the CEA, Treasury and OMB? The MSR:
With August hourly earnings and nowcasted August CPI:
Evidence of continued growth:
Down, under Trump 1.0 and Trump 2.0:
Back at the end of 2024, EJ Antoni was citing the Primerica Household Budget Index as indicator of consumer conditions.
From the ADP release:
Improving through 2025Q3. But taking out the revenue associated with the illegal IEEPA tariffs, well…
Join us for an evening of amazing and transcendental music by Laura Schwendinger, Professor of Composition at UW Madison, on September 5, 7:30 at the Hamel Music Hall.
Based on Cleveland Fed nowcasts:
From the EIA: