Economists in a Bloomberg survey now see Canada’s economy expanding just 0.7% this year after shrinking in the first quarter.
Consensus on Canadian GDP
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Nowcasts/Forecasts of GDP
GDPNow updated downward:
LLMs and IMF Advice, Dollar Trinity, Risk-On/Risk -Off and Loanly Govts: (Almost) Live-Blogging ISOM 2026
Jeffrey Frankel and Hélène Rey organized a great conference for the NBER’s International Seminar on Macroeconomics, hosted by the Sveriges Riksbank; topics covered were wide and diverse. The program is here:
Business Cycle Indicators as of End-June
Personal income, consumption, slightly above consensus; manufacturing and trade industry sales (April), and 3rd release GDO:
Guest Contribution: “1776”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version in Project Syndicate.
Retail Sales and Retail Sales ex-Auto, Gas
Here’re some business cycle indicators with deflated retail sales:
Industrial, Manufacturing Production and Business Cycle Indicators
IP at 0.1% m/m vs. 0.3% consensus.
Small Firm Employment and Business Cycle Prospects
From ADP, one sees that employment growth has accelerated, small firm employment, and employment share, has decelerated.
Sentiment Beats Expectations, Slightly
From U.Michigan, preliminary sentiment at 48.9 vs. 46.1 consensus.
EJ Antoni: “E.J. Antoni: U.S. utility prices down 1.5% since Iran war began”
As is often the case, I cannot verify this claim made by EJ Antoni, Chief Economist for Heritage Foundation. What is true is that the price of natural gas (piped) has declined. But not for electricity. And roughly 42% of households are heated/cooled by electricity (a rising share), compared to 47% for natural gas. In addition, for lighting etc. you’d need to draw on electricity.