Q2 GDP growth revised up 0.7 ppts, path of personal income ex-transfers up due to revised deflator. Here are the key indicators followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee:
From EIA:
From the Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update:
Conference Board index registers 81.9 vs consensus 89.2 (and previous 88.6). It’s currently three standard deviations below mean.
As of today’s close:
Over 5.2%:
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version was published in Project Syndicate.
What did we think was happening back then, compared to what we know now?
Rise in 10 year rates is mostly showing up in real rates, as proxied by TIPS.
As share of total diesel+heating oil+gasoline consumption volume (a somewhat strange measure to me, but probably gets the idea across), from Nate Silver: