Tons of politically motivated commentary in Canada about the implications of 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth and a “technical recession” [1], even though it’s clear most mainstream economists in Canada fail to read much more into the event. I post a figure from 9 months ago, recapping the the 2024 episode in the US.
From Bloomberg:
Not by me, but by Jeffrey A. Tucker, today:
Discussion with Justin Ho on MarketPlace yesterday. Disposable income (after tax, after transfers) is useful for assessing the state of the consumer finances, while personal income ex-current transfers — followed by the NBER’s BCDC — is a better reflection of income coming from economic activity.
Chicago Fed letter, by Brave, Henken, and Jolley:
From EconoFact:
QCEW covered employment data through end-2025 is out.
Here’s in the context of other alternative business cycle indicators:
Trump statement today. In other news, from Kalshi, 12:30pm CT: