As we lumber into an expanded trade war with Canada:
Wisconsin Goods Exports by Destination, 2025
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Paper (Diaper) Tiger? “Trump Vows to Double Tariffs on Canadian Autos, Escalating Fight”
Who could’a thunk it? From Bloomberg:
Guest Contribution: “When Does Monetary Tightening Deflate a Stock-Market Bubble?”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Jamel Saadaoui (Université Paris 8-Vincennes).
Wisconsin GOP Gubernatorial Candidate Tiffany on US Trade Policy
Trade War with Canada: Wisconsin Awaits Retaliation
Anybody familiar with the gravity model of trade would be unsurprised that Wisconsin (exports) a lot to Canada.
Waiting for the Troika Mid-Session Review Forecast
July 15 is the due date, but is often missed. So looking back in May, NEC Chair Hassett forecast 5% growth in 2027, on top of rapid 2026 growth forecasted by the Administration. How are things looking with two more quarters of reported growth?
Monthly GDP Flat Since March
SPGMI’s estimate as of 8/3:
Mr. Trump, tear down this (hamburger tariff) wall!
From Bloomberg:
Inflation Adjusted Average Hourly Earnings below February 2026 Levels
They’re all lower than they were in February … but deflated using CPI ex shelter (mimicking HICP), they’re down 1.4%.
“I am the king of debt. I do love debt. I love debt.”
That is Donald J. Trump, in May 2016. So why the surprise about debt worries? It was only a question of time.