47.6, below consensus of 51.6, down from 53.3.
Standardized Sentiment in the Time of Trump
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Dollar Reserves in the Wake of Trump
Have the erratic policies pursued by Mr. Trump over the past year affected dollar holdings? The answer depends.
Business Cycle Indicators – Final GDP, GDO, Personal Income
From the releases today:
Prediction Markets on Trump Credibility Re: Reopening the Strait
From Kalshi:
The Single Factoral Terms of Gasoline*
As of March end:
Workers of the US: Were You Better Off in February 2026 than Today?
Average Hourly Earnings in CPI deflated 2025$:
March CPI Inflation Preview: Q/Q AR at 5.2% to 5.9%
Cleveland Fed nowcast m/m as of today, vs. Bloomberg consensus. The nowcast is a mechanical prediction based on reported CPI and PCE, as well as daily oil prices and weekly gasoline prices.
Various Measures of Employment
I see a lot of ebullience in the wake of the March headline NFP number. I’m not so convinced (see here), and looking at other indicators buttresses my wariness.
Upward Shift: Market-Implied Path of 3 Month SOFR, Pre-War vs. Now
From Atlanta Fed, calculations as of today:
“Liberation Day” Plus One Year
Nice roundup on political economy and geoeconomics from Council on Foreign Relations.