CME FedWatch indicates staying put next meeting, rises by nearly 5 percentage points; staying at current rate rises at the 29 April meeting by nearly 10 percentage points.
Fed More Likely to Stay Pat?
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Geopolitical, Financial Risk and Economic Policy Uncertainty
Up for geopolitical risk, not for financial.
Oil Jumps 13%
Tensions in the Mideast cause a spike. One hour into futures trading:
One of These Is Not Like the Others: Employment
What to expect in the February release.
The Economy: When We Last Entered a Land War on the Asian Mainland
Employment fell as EPU rose; production stalls as Geopolitical Risk spiked.
Core PCE Instantaneous Inflation at 3.6% in January, Same in February?
Using the Cleveland Fed nowcast for February, y/y inflation will be 3%, instantaneous at 3.2%, 3.6% instantaneous using Goldman Sachs estimate based on today’s PPI release.
Interpreting the Shrinking Term Spread
At high frequency, the 10yr-3mo and 10yr-Fed funds spreads are shrinking:
Alternative Estimates of Q4 Output
GDO and GDP+.
News-Based Trade Policy Uncertainty Highest since April
So the IEEPA tariffs are gone. Now a hodge podge of indefinitely-lived tariffs lives on, with uncertainty elevated.
Confidence and Sentiment: February 2026
With the release of the Conference Board’s Confidence Index, and the SF Fed’s News Sentiment Index, we have the following picture: