Due to the Federal government shutdown, the employment release is going to be delayed. Here are NBER business cycle indicators, including the latest monthly GDP, that we have now:
From Atlanta Fed and Goldman Sachs, numbers that perhaps better represent the trajectory of aggregate demand.
A random thought on Trump’s moves to depreciate the dollar and to implement broad and high tariffs. The dollar has depreciated on a real trade weighted basis by about 6.6% in December (in log terms). Average effective tariff rates have risen from about 2% to 12%. What’s the impact on import prices, based on earlier estimates?
As i was producing some extra slides for my macro course, I generated this graph:
Articles or comments in peer reviewed journals, per Google Scholar:
M/M PPI +0.5% vs.+ 0.2% Bloomberg consensus; m/m core PPI +0.7% vs. +0.2% consensus. Here’s instantaneous (per Eeckhout, 2023) PPI and PCE vs q/q CPI:
In the FT today:
A one standard deviation drop is no small thing. Actual at 85.4 vs. 90.5 Bloomberg consensus, down from upwardly revised 94.2.
