Two voting members of the FOMC dissented in favor of raising rates. Some context for why that stance might make sense, from Jason Furman’s EconVitals Taylor rule utility.
The Taylor Rule and Today’s Dissents
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On the Eve of the 2026Q3 Advance GDP Release
GDP growth nowcasted as solid; nowcasted “core GDP” goes gangbusters. Advance release to be discussed by Jim tomorrow…
Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update through 10/26/2026
Diesel prices rise again.
Confidence Up, Sentiment (Final) Flat
Headlines (Bloomberg) note increase in Conference Board’s Confidence index, for the first time in four months. However, the index remains pretty low, as does Michigan’s final reading on Sentiment.
“News” Illustrated: Brazilian Election
(This is an example for my “financial system” course.) When the outcome differs from expectations in a big way, expect big asset moves.
Naval Deployment as of 10/26: Convergence near Iran in November?
(Per open sources) from USNI:
The Canadian Term Spread and the Case of the Missing 2024 Recession
The term spread is positive in Canada through September. But the term spread signaled recession for 2024 (which some had predicted). What can we take from this, regarding recession probabilities?
PCE Inflation in September
Some divergence from Cleveland Fed nowcast vs. Bloomberg consensus:
Motio September Median Real Household Income: Slight Recovery
EconVitals: Key Macro Indicators Gathered
This is the new “go to” website, from Jason Furman (former Chair, CEA; professor at Kennedy School, nonresident fellow at PIIE):