Employment downside surprise, +29K vs +89, with cumulative 81K downward revisions to previous two months. Taking into account early benchmark, it’s not changing the picture too much.
Using a plain vanilla term spread model (spread, short rate), what remains? From notes for tomorrow’s lecture.
Q2 GDP growth revised up 0.7 ppts, path of personal income ex-transfers up due to revised deflator. Here are the key indicators followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee:
From EIA:
From the Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update:
Conference Board index registers 81.9 vs consensus 89.2 (and previous 88.6). It’s currently three standard deviations below mean.
As of today’s close:
Over 5.2%:
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version was published in Project Syndicate.
What did we think was happening back then, compared to what we know now?