The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 2% annual rate in the first quarter. That is below the historical average growth of 3.1% and also below some analysts’ expectations for the Q1 numbers. The new BEA report also revised down the estimate of the Q4 annual growth rate. The latter was originally reported to have been 1.4% but is now estimated to have only been 0.5%.
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As of 2pm CT today:
Gas at all time high, according to Gasbuddy, as of today:
From data 10 min ago:
My guess, using Kalshi and EPU, is for $111 yesterday (assuming EPU is the same as yesterday):
7:30pm, at the Leonard Nimoy Thalia at Symphony Space, 2537 Broadway at 95th St. New York:
Composer Laura Schwendinger and librettist Ginger Strand’s opera about Margaret Fuller, a 19th century American journalist and women’s rights advocate, receives its world premiere in a semi-staged production. “Margaret in Love and War” features Marnie Breckenridge in the titular role directed by Chris Alden and a chamber ensemble led by conductor Eiki Isomura.
In 1847, Fuller arrives in Italy at the heart of a revolution. As popular discontent was roiling in Europe, Fuller’s columns for the New York Tribune provide a thrilling account from the front lines. She falls in love with a young revolutionary nobleman and has a child with him before their lives were tragically cut short in a shipwreck.
One year ahead inflation expectations down 10 bps, sentiment up 2 points:
Up, up and away.
A food crisis in the making. Graph from CSIS, “The Strait of Hormuz in 8 Charts” (22 April 2026).
From the IMF’s Asia Pacific Department, a blog “Asia’s Economic Resilience Is Being Tested by the Energy Shock”, two tables of interest: Oil and natural gas import dependence and intensity.