Oil futures jumped on Friday, presumably will again today — but with refining capacity down, the number(s) to watch might be for refined products (given damage to refineries especially in Russia). Here’s Brent futures (black line) vs NY Harbor RBOB gasoline (brown line), for September:
As expectations of SoH reopening decline.
New estimates from Soto, Thieu and Allen:
Latest Kalshi estimates on re-opening by September 1:
Continued rebound for sample June 23 to July 13 — which largely predates the resumed increase in gasoline prices.
Catching up with the news overseas, China downside surprise:
For one month, trailing 12 months:
Along with GDPNow. Industrial production under consensus (+0.1% m/m ov +0.2% Bloomberg consensus), while manufacturing is flat (+0.0% vs. +0.1% consensus).
That’s the title of an opinion piece in Finance and Development by former CEA member (2025-26) and UW Madison economics professor Kim Ruhl:
According to data released today; here are alternative business cycle indicators: