From notes for PA854 (before AD-AS chapter), to be discussed tomorrow:
Interpreting 2/27 in Basic IS-LM w/Exogenous Price Shock
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Fed More Likely to Stay Pat?
CME FedWatch indicates staying put next meeting, rises by nearly 5 percentage points; staying at current rate rises at the 29 April meeting by nearly 10 percentage points.
Geopolitical, Financial Risk and Economic Policy Uncertainty
Up for geopolitical risk, not for financial.
Oil Jumps 13%
Tensions in the Mideast cause a spike. One hour into futures trading:
One of These Is Not Like the Others: Employment
What to expect in the February release.
The Economy: When We Last Entered a Land War on the Asian Mainland
Employment fell as EPU rose; production stalls as Geopolitical Risk spiked.
Core PCE Instantaneous Inflation at 3.6% in January, Same in February?
Using the Cleveland Fed nowcast for February, y/y inflation will be 3%, instantaneous at 3.2%, 3.6% instantaneous using Goldman Sachs estimate based on today’s PPI release.
Interpreting the Shrinking Term Spread
At high frequency, the 10yr-3mo and 10yr-Fed funds spreads are shrinking:
Alternative Estimates of Q4 Output
GDO and GDP+.
News-Based Trade Policy Uncertainty Highest since April
So the IEEPA tariffs are gone. Now a hodge podge of indefinitely-lived tariffs lives on, with uncertainty elevated.