One of the mysteries of recent macro history is why tightening monetary policy failed to significantly slow economic activity, particularly capital investment. For instance, even as the Fed funds rate rose, nonnresidential fixed investment rose throughout 2022-23.
That’s the title of a fascinating paper By Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan Liliana Varela that I had the opportunity to discuss at the NBER’s International Seminar on Macroeconomics (Stockholm, June 24-25).
From StatCan today, employment reverses May decline, rises 18.2K vs 11.2K Bloomberg consensus. The employment sitrep as of today’s release:
If you thought the US-Iran war was effectively over, if you thought USMCA was safe, if you thought no more trade surprises, well think again:
Gasbuddy on current gasoline prices:
From BEA:
From Francesco Furno and Domenico Giannone, continuously updated risk assessment, at https://recessionrisk.com/ (discussed previously in this post).
From today’s Daily Commercial News,
“A recession has been often defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth, and so on that definition, Canada is in a recession,” [Michael] Chong said.
From IMF’s COFER:
For those who once worked there: