Using Cleveland Fed nowcast for PCE.
Instantaneous Inflation in March
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“U.S. to Blockade Ships Entering or Exiting Iranian Ports”
From CENTCOM:
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces will begin implementing a blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports on April 13 at 10 a.m. ET, in accordance with the President’s proclamation.
The blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. CENTCOM forces will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports.
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Detrended Consumer Sentiment
Preliminary UMich sentiment was at a record low in April. However, it’s pretty clear sentiment has been on average lower in the last 15 years, suggesting a trend decrease; the “vibecession” talk of 2024 is part of that phenomenon.
“U.S. Dollar Dominance in Trade Invoicing and Cross-Border Investments in SEACEN Economies
Economic Report of the President, 2026 Out on Monday
The forecast will be the same as reported in the Budget (see here), using data from November. Hence, will be OBE given slowdown pre-War, and post-War cost-push shock.
Republican Hopes Spring Eternal (Iran War/Economics Edition)
While Republicans/Lean Republican respondents to the U.Michigan survey don’t show a very different response to March/April economic events, they are remarkably upbeat on the future.
Inflation in March, and a Year from Now…
CPI release and U.Michigan expectations, at 4.8% vs. Bloomberg consensus 4.2%
Standardized Sentiment in the Time of Trump
47.6, below consensus of 51.6, down from 53.3.
Dollar Reserves in the Wake of Trump
Have the erratic policies pursued by Mr. Trump over the past year affected dollar holdings? The answer depends.
Business Cycle Indicators – Final GDP, GDO, Personal Income
From the releases today: