Today we are fortunate to be able to present a guest contribution written by Rashad Ahmed (Andersen Institute for Finance and Economics). The views presented are solely those of the author. A version of this article was posted at ARC blog.
The Conference Board estimate of consumer confidence comes out tomorrow. Here’s some guesses on how bad it’ll be.
Tyler Godspeed (former acting CEA Chair Trump 1.0; chief economist ExxonMobil) observes that shocks as determinants of recessions means they are essentially unpredictable.
From Barchart, 9:30pm CT:
From Yardeni:
According to Politico, if you were wondering when the budget was coming out. The budget should have come out February 2nd.
I see currently betting on US troops in Iran by April 30th at 70% (a high of 72% earlier today), with betting on maximum oil price in 2026 of $145/bbl.
In case you were wondering:
Central Banking news account from the conference The ECB and Its Watchers, on Wednesday:
Final U.Michigan sentiment at 53.3, down from preliminary 55.5 reading. Expectations down 2.4 pts from preliminary.