Using the Cleveland Fed nowcast for February, y/y inflation will be 3%, instantaneous at 3.2%, 3.6% instantaneous using Goldman Sachs estimate based on today’s PPI release.
At high frequency, the 10yr-3mo and 10yr-Fed funds spreads are shrinking:
GDO and GDP+.
So the IEEPA tariffs are gone. Now a hodge podge of indefinitely-lived tariffs lives on, with uncertainty elevated.
With the release of the Conference Board’s Confidence Index, and the SF Fed’s News Sentiment Index, we have the following picture:
Today, we’re fortunate to have Willem Thorbecke, Senior Fellow at Japan’s Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) as a guest contributor. The views expressed represent those of the author himself, and do not necessarily represent those of RIETI, or any other institutions the author is affiliated with.
As I’m teaching econometrics, I’m adding in handling-of-data issues. Examples from the last three years.
NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC) key variables:
Yesterday, Jim moved the Econbrowser Little Econ Watcher’s countenance to neutral 😐, based primarily on Q3 growth, using the methodology outlined in this post. Remember, there will be two revisions for Q4 growth (before the annual revision, and succeeding revisions). What are some other readings from the Q4 release?
