From MarketWatch today, Claudia Sahm and I comment.
“How energy prices figure into the Fed’s interest rate decisions”
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From MarketWatch today, Claudia Sahm and I comment.
And are rising faster than in the last year under Biden.
Brent approaches $100/bbl again, volatility keeps on rising, and Straits open end-April less than eve-odds.
We have alternative readings on employment, compared to CES series.
EPU, VIX and GPR:
From EJ Antoni (first published two weeks ago):
Using NYMEX futures for May, June:
Polymarket, using definition of 2 quarters of consecutive negative GDP growth OR NBER declaration.
NYMEX:
In the wake of Trump’s musings, from Polymarket: