Most quick assessments of the impact of a continued US-Israel/Iran war work of reduced form responses to oil shocks. I’m not sure how equity market responses, quantitatively, fit in. However, I suspect that higher uncertainty and perceived risk may prove the catalyst for a sustained correction.
2025Q4 2nd release, GDPNow, and Survey of Professional Forecasters:
Q4 GDP growth halved, Q4 consumption undershoots consensus by nearly half percentage point (ann’d):
From Kalshi:
Most recent data (last available Caldara et al. TPU at 3/6):
In consideration of tanker escorts, some ballpark figures.
But down from peak 37%. From Polymarket:
From MarketPlace today with Justin Ho, Claudia Sahm and I comment.
And are rising faster than in the last year under Biden.
Brent approaches $100/bbl again, volatility keeps on rising, and Straits open end-April less than eve-odds.
Source: BBC.