Urals way up, to $92.4
Brent-Urals Spread Today:
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Your Morning Petroleum Price Sitrep: Brent Prompt Nears $110
Brought to you by TrumpCo:
Deployment of ARG Tripoli, Betting on Hormuz Re-Opening
As of yesterday, open sources indicate:
The Goods Trade Deficit Adjusted for Gold
Larger than the unadjusted, post-Liberation Day:
Oil Futures in War
Kevin Hassett noted on Face the Nation yesterday:
Miran’s Next Vote
Polymarket reports betting that Stephen Miran will dissent with 98% probability, up from 89.1% on the eve of the Iran war. To me, the interesting question is not whether he dissents, but how he justifies his vote (does he still believe that r* has declined?).
Hassett on the Economic Impact of the US-Israel-Iran War
On Face the Nation, on timeline, impact:
The Oil and Energy Intensity of US GDP
Possibly one factor in the impact of oil shocks (although Blanchard and Gali (2007) place greater weight on greater wage flexibility and central bank credibility):
Instantaneous PCE Inflation with Nowcasts/Tracking
Goldman Sachs tracking ticks higher core PCE inflation for February. The Cleveland Fed’s core nowcast imply lower instantaneous inflation for February and March.
Towards Correction?
Most quick assessments of the impact of a continued US-Israel/Iran war work of reduced form responses to oil shocks. I’m not sure how equity market responses, quantitatively, fit in. However, I suspect that higher uncertainty and perceived risk may prove the catalyst for a sustained correction.